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Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by hunglee2 on Monday July 11, 2022 @02:40AM (#32052969)
Europe is going to be ruined by this conflict. Most people (understandably) focus on gas price in residential heating terms, but the real damage will be to European (especially German) manufacturing and the costs that now need to go up throughout the supply chain now that Russian gas supply is restricted.

Any widget made in Europe - already losing in cost competition with East Asia - will now become even more expensive to make. It takes circa 10 years for nuclear reactor from plan-to-grid, and that is on the basis *with& the available workforce to do it, which of course Europe doesn't have any more.

Mass purchase of the Hualong One reactor might be a solution if the Chinese can make them fast enough. Either that, or dig up some more coal and burn that for the next decade or two, so goodbye climate change goals. It's an absolute mess, pain has started to percolate now, but will reverberate for years

Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by stareatgoats on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:14AM (#32053210)
> Europe is going to be ruined by this conflict

If so, then the trans-Atlantic unity will come under serious strain as well. This is happening just as Europe began to climb into a bigger suit, that of an independent economic and military bloc to be reckoned with (not that it was at any moment a realistic ambition). Instead Europe will be forced to take a back seat again, have thousands of US troops on the ground for protection, while the US escapes unscathed if not considerably strengthened.

It's going to be a bitter pill to swallow.

Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by sofixa on Monday July 11, 2022 @08:23AM (#32055190)
> This is happening just as Europe began to climb into a bigger suit, that of an independent economic and military bloc to be reckoned with (not that it was at any moment a realistic ambition)

For military it's not a reality today, but pre-pandemic it was absolutely a realistic goal many were working towards. Economically, it rivals the US in GDP terms and has some extremely strong sectors. Politically it's the main leader in human rights and regulation of new stuff that needs it (GDPR, Digital Markets and Services acts).

With the US in the process of imploding politically, the EU needs to maintain all of those and go even further.

Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by drippingfist69 on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:19AM (#32053233)
C%@r3at4r5i
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by stareatgoats on Monday July 11, 2022 @05:15AM (#32053870)
Congrats to your first comment here on HN, even if I see room for improvement. Like writing something intelligible for example, always a good rule of thumb.
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by genocidicbunny on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:08AM (#32053169)
This could also be the straw that breaks the fossil fuel camel's back, and gets more european countries to move to clean energy, leaving their fossil fuels for the industrial processes that cannot do without them.
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by mdp2021 on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:16AM (#32053220)
How? Surely it will place the problem of energy acquisition as a priority - but also with the need of assessing the problem of access to /cheap/ energy, also to compensate for the past luxury that now appears compromised. The matter of "clean energy" will have to compete with other pressing parameters.
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by genocidicbunny on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:25AM (#32053268)
In the short term yes, it will create problems with energy acquisition, but in the longer term it provides a direct lesson in the need to reduce your dependence on foreign supplies. Even 20 years ago, there were few avenues to doing so. These days with renewables, the domestic supply could be significantly increased at relatively reasonable costs. It also becomes a strategic/national security imperative to reduce dependence on foreign energy sources. For a long time now, Europe had this idea that as long as they strengthened their energy economy ties with Russia, they could prevent this sort of conflict. That fantasy has largely been shattered now.
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by mdp2021 on Monday July 11, 2022 @04:34AM (#32053644)
Autonomy is an absolute value that does not need rediscovery in theoretics; diversification of source for securing supply is a topic forced by the paradigm of Ricardo, unless taken in a most mindless form. The issue is (and was) always "how", realistically, feasibly with regard to all practical and decision-making constraints.

What is new now is that the parties are forced to compromise given that the ideal scenario became dead past (and yet not fully).

Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by dispat0r on Monday July 11, 2022 @04:04AM (#32053479)
If you mean nuclear with clean energy, yes, but you can't run a power grid with renewables you always need a backup gas is out so what is left?
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by genocidicbunny on Monday July 11, 2022 @04:19AM (#32053568)
Ultimately, I would like it to be nuclear+renewables, but realistically, we won't see any new nuclear plants inside the decade. Therefore renewables+storage needs to take up more slack, and as much as I hate to say it, coal.

I don't think renewables will be the full solution, but perfect is the enemy of good. If europe can reduce its gas dependence to the point where it can obtain the necessary supplies outside of Russia, that will be a win.

Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by morsch on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:25AM (#32053269)
Any widget made in Europe ... will now become even more expensive to make.

Sure, but that's always the case. The question is, how much more expensive. And that's going to vary a lot depending on how much the natural gas and electricity required is part of the overall price.

No doubt we're in for a rough transition, which we should have avoided by embarking on it twenty years ago, but I see any evidence for long term ruin. Not due to loss of energy imports from Russia, anyway.

Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by petre on Monday July 11, 2022 @02:58AM (#32053106)
This is the price we pay for years of dependence on Russian gas. The US has long warned EU leaders (especially Germany) about this, but they refused to listen.
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by sofixa on Monday July 11, 2022 @08:25AM (#32055210)
The US also warned for years about Saddam's WMDs, and love a boogeyman. They were right this time, eventually, but that doesn't make them trustworthy.
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by blub on Monday July 11, 2022 @05:22PM (#32062074)
To be fair, if somebody warned me of something for 40 years and that something would not happen, I’d be tempted to dismiss such warnings.
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by mdp2021 on Monday July 11, 2022 @02:43AM (#32052992)
> the real damage will be to European (especially German) manufacturing

German and Italian.

Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by hunglee2 on Monday July 11, 2022 @02:45AM (#32053018)
did Italy ever have nuke industry btw?
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by mdp2021 on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:00AM (#32053118)
Yes, but it was stopped in the '80s after the Chernobyl accident, through a referendum with direct decision placed upon the voting population.
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by hunglee2 on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:44AM (#32053358)
popular vote usually not a good idea when it comes to decisions which have multi-decade implications. What a screw up - understandable tho it was!
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by popcube on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:40AM (#32053340)
wow, how Europe so peace even they experienced world war...
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by 88840-8855 on Monday July 11, 2022 @02:48AM (#32053043)
We will be ruined.

But at least we got something something demoncrency to some random country 90% of us have not been able to identify on a map before the war. I mean.. come on, it is not some brown-people shithole like Syria, Iraq, Yemen that it was totally OK to bomb. This is the evil Russia who we are talking here about!

And we are the good guys.

Better to live poor in a recession than having some random corrupt country where people anyway dont care who robs them being part of Russia.

NOT MY WAR.

Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by genocidicbunny on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:06AM (#32053161)
> But at least we got something something demoncrency to some random country 90% of us have not been able to identify on a map before the war.

You're quite a moron, or willfully ignorant, if you can't identify the second biggest country on the European continent.

> Better to live poor in a recession than having some random corrupt country where people anyway dont care who robs them being part of Russia.

No, if 'some random corrupt country' becomes part of Russia, you're next. You have a choice to live in recession, or to live under the Russian yoke. And these days, the first time you speak out against being under the Russian yoke, you're going to find yourself in a gulag deep in siberia. You may want to get yourself sized for your coffin in that case, you won't make it out alive.

Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by mdp2021 on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:23AM (#32053258)
> You're quite a moron, or willfully ignorant, if you can't identify the second biggest country on the European continent

I could post links to video clips of quiz shows where privileged citizens (public figures) of countries which owned very large parts of the world literally could not (exactly the case you point to, and much more - not even their own former and present colonies, not even after wars...).

So, while I agree with your statement (which I would not have written in those terms), do not underestimate the dire situation of societies.

Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by genocidicbunny on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:30AM (#32053297)
You're quite correct, but as you point out, that doesn't make my statement false. If anything, it paints the GP as even more of a banal moron.
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by polotics on Monday July 11, 2022 @03:03AM (#32053135)
Pray tell who is the "we" you claim to be writing in the name of? Letting bullies succeed only produce bigger bullies. So yes, my war and Pust sve' gorit...
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by baxtr on Monday July 11, 2022 @02:59AM (#32053110)
According to this logic, the United States should never have liberated Nazi Germany.
[dead]
Re:Exit, pursued by a bear by Mlller on Monday July 11, 2022 @08:55PM (#32064250)
(by Martin Niemöller, FWIW: https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Martin_Niem%C3%B6ller – Ctrl-F “When the Nazis”.)