The reality is the opposite. People are keeping their vehicles longer now than in the past. The average fleet turnover is now over a decade:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36914

> Reality is that no one owns a car for 200k miles anymore.

Do you have statistics on that?

I purchased my previous car (a Dodge) when it had 8k miles and had it as my primary car until 240k miles. It only started to have serious maintenance issues at 220k miles. I not only paid it off, but saved enough money to be able to pay for a new car in full. I would recommend to anyone, as it is really nice to not have a car payment.

My anecdata says your anecdata is wrong. Everyone buys a car new and keeps it going for 10+ years until the cost to maintain it gets too high. Then they sell it for scrap or donate it for scrap and get a new car. The one person who trades in their car while getting a new one is the outlier in any group of people.

Also, it's not just cost. Sometimes newer models are just worse. There is one car that I thought about getting a little while ago, but the model changed dramatically 5 years earlier (the older version was what I used on a vacation that got me interested), so I had to look at getting a 5 year old car or a different model.

I don't think that's true at all. My experience (which appears to be the same level of 'fact' as you present) is that there are people who lease, who trade out cars every X years like clockwork, and people who buy who keep the car until something happens that clicks 'that isn't worth fixing', which these days is often way down the road. Possible not 200k miles, but far more than 3-4 years.

FWIW, other than one car I bought new, every car I've had I purchased off-lease (so lowish miles and 2-3 years old) and kept it for at least 7-10 years, often getting to 200k miles.

Almost everyone derives value from existing cars either by using or selling it.

I also would need concrete data to believe most people are swapping cars willy nilly. Based on income/wealth statistics, most Americans most certainly cannot afford to.

They can afford it if lenders are giving car loans to just about anyone: https://twitter.com/GrahamStephan/status/1542860348742836225

Of all my friends and extended family, including my wife's family, I know a single person who does this.

The only source I could find said: "The percentage of consumers that are leasing their vehicles has dropped due to the inventory shortage. In December 2021, only 20% of new-car shoppers leased a vehicle, compared to December 2019, when 30% chose to lease, according to Jominy."

https://www.cars.com/articles/how-does-the-inventory-shortag...

What difference does it make if 1 or 4 owners take the car to 200K miles? The cheaper-to-run car is likely to be worth more to the initial and subsequent resales.

Surely there are also a lot in the middle. Otherwise where do all the new cars go, and where do the rust heaps come from?

I would be shocked if that's true. 30 years ago I remember it being a big deal when the family car reached 100,000 miles. If you kept a car running long enough to get it to 200,000 miles you'd probably get an short article written about it in the local newspaper.

I bought a few new cars. Never again; I don't want to deal with the elevated failure rates in the first 12-24 months. Our most recent car is a used, low-milage previously-leased vehicle. No problems so far. knock on wood

Citation needed.