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Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @03:31PM (#31758188)
Batteries will be a negligible fraction of utility storage, so that is moot.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by sanderjd on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @05:26PM (#31759664)
Why? What will the rest be?
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by californical on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @06:56PM (#31760497)
I know there are options like pumped water, compressed air, spinning disc. No idea how feasible they are at scale, but I can imagine a world where physical storage like that could be lower maintenance & cost in the long-term compared to chemical batteries.

Even if less efficient, you can get enormous potential storage from pumped water with relatively simple machines compared to massive battery farms.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by WalterBright on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @09:31PM (#31761597)
I know a fellow who is running a startup that moves a (very) heavy weight up a hill, and going back down it provides power. He says it is something like 90% efficient at energy recovery, whereas pumped water is far less due to friction in the pipes.

He also said the inertia of a falling weight is enormous, and would help stabilize the grid.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by paledot on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @10:50PM (#31762032)
Okay, but if his startup isn't named Sisyphus Energy, I don't know what he's doing with his life.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by qsdf38100 on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:17AM (#31763322)
It’s actually not a good idea at all. When you do the math ( or rather the physics) gravity batteries need so much mass and height to compete with other technologies that it’s just not worth it.

Now if you use water, pipes and pumps, instead of solid materials, now we’re talking. It’s called pumped hydro storage and is the number one grid scale storage in the world.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Saturday June 18, 2022 @12:46AM (#31787328)
Hint: pumped hydro is, exactly, a gravity battery. A gravity "flow battery", if you like.

It is #1, just now, because a lot already existed. They cost a great deal to build, back when. New ones would cost as much, but a small variation is much cheaper, not needing a dam or a watershed.

A small variation on a bad idea can be a very good idea.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by californical on Thursday June 16, 2022 @12:21AM (#31762406)
This is a genius idea, especially because it could be done anywhere with a hill, which makes it a lot more geographically accessible (since most places have hills)
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by qsdf38100 on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:13AM (#31763308)
It’s actually not a good idea at all. When you do the math ( or rather the physics) gravity batteries need so much mass and height to compete with other technologies that it’s just not worth it.

Except if water, pipes and pumps are used, as water is heavy, and pipes and pumps can transport a lot of it very efficiently and cheaply. That’s called pumped hydro storage and is currently the #1 grid scale storage in the world.

Trying to do the same with solid materials can sound like a genius idea but it’s really not.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Thursday June 16, 2022 @04:22AM (#31763656)
You need a very, very large mass, and then rails and rolling stock to carry it.

That is why vertical motion in a disused mineshaft is attractive. A single 10,000t weight hanging from a winch has just one moving part, the winch, and cable all in tension, with no preparation of the shaft sides; everything is concentrated at the top. The mineshaft provides isolation from environmental disruption.

You get much the same effect with a float attached to a cable down to a pulley augered into the sea floor; thence to an onshore winch. The cable and pulley are exposed to sea (or lake) water, but you get the advantage that the winch may be shared among as many cable reels as you like, with only simple clutches. A 20m diameter float displaces 4000 tons of water, and the sea floor may be much more than a km deep.

(In principle you could share a winch drive among lots of mineshafts, but they are rarely close enough together. You could bore more, but that drives up cost. The world is absolutely perforated with disused mineshafts.)

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by qsdf38100 on Friday June 17, 2022 @07:57AM (#31776846)
10,000t weight? If it’s made up of rock with a density of 3000kg/m3, it’s 3333 cubic meters, so about 15x15x15 m3. Basically a large building. I’m not sure what kind of shaft can handle it. And even if you can pull it of, 10000t over 1000 meters is only 27 MWh of storage. 1 pumped hydro plant can store hundred of GWh!
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Friday June 17, 2022 @12:10PM (#31780306)
(1) Rock is not very dense; pig iron density is 3x rock's. (2) A cube is not the only shape, for a weight. (3) Total capacity is not the only parameter of interest, for utility storage. (4) There is not only one mineshaft. (5) No utility is restricted to using only one kind of storage; different kinds favor different parameters, and we may expect utilities to use different kinds at the same time to maximize value and minimize cost.

Assuming utilities will do the stupid, expensive thing leads to failed analyses.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by qsdf38100 on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:06PM (#31782016)
Rock is cheap. The shape is irrelevant. For grid scale, total capacity is what makes it grid scale. No amount of parameter tuning can change the fact that stored energy is at best mass * g * height. Adding more huge mineshafts is irrelevant. You can always add more units, it doesn’t make it more efficient.

Sounds like an Elon Musk solution. Make it bigger, taller, make more of it, and somehow it’ll bend basic physics facts to become the ground breaking disruptor technology of the next century.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Saturday June 18, 2022 @12:14AM (#31787215)
Efficiency doesn't matter nearly so much as is usually assumed. What matters is cost. Exactly, cost per Wh stored, and per W in and per W out.

Mineshaft storage is very, very efficient, but has an upper limit on energy per mineshaft determined by its depth and how much weight fits in it. The cost of the winch apparatus is amortized over that amount. More mineshafts means more total storage.

Pumped hydro has very, very low cost per Wh stored, but kinda high per W in and out. But thousands of pumped hydro systems were already built, almost, so seem free; they just needed pumps added.

Synthetic H2 and NH3 are very, very cheap per Wh stored. W out uses existing turbines, so seems cheap. W in depends on your electrolysers, which are improving fast.

In batteries, cost per Wh stored has been large, but is different in different chemistries. In a better chemistry it is lower. Flow batteries have lower cost per Wh stored, for any liquid chemistry, but higher per W in or out; and need plumbing and pumps.

Details matter. Numbers matter. Dumb choices make dumb designs. Dumb designs can be improved on.

Drawing conclusions based on dumb choices is just dumb.

Musk is dumb, but just barely smart enough to hire smart people and, sometimes, let them be smart. So, Hyperloop was just dumb, no matter who works on it. Starship is kinda smart, depending on what you can think of to do with it. Mars colonization is dumb. Starlink could possibly be smart, depending on a lot of details.

A wholly new capability, like radically cheaper mass to orbit, can often enable smart ideas. Super-expensive mass to orbit was good enough for weather satellites, planetary probes, and geosynch COMSATs.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by sanderjd on Thursday June 16, 2022 @07:07PM (#31772111)
I hadn't heard this sea float / winch idea before! Any links you could dig up for me? Anyone operationalizing this yet?
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Saturday June 18, 2022 @12:09AM (#31787195)
There was an "Undecided with Matt Ferrell" on YT some weeks back that mentioned a dumb version of it somebody at a university promoted.

That one had the winch and motor / generator at the sea floor, and a big rack of floats. It was, of course, too expensive. This is a common feature of energy storage ideas: people seem to love to promote the most stupidly expensive version of a good idea, and then give up when it is shot down for that.

Certainly, any scheme where you put complicated electromechanical stuff on the sea floor, it will be expensive. And likewise, where the expensive part is only usable with one "unit" of storage. Or anyway it just costs too much or needs perfect weather or something. (E.g., Energy Vault (NRGV) is stupid and their investors will lose their shirts.)

But there is usually a simple variation that lacks these problems.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by WalterBright on Thursday June 16, 2022 @10:48PM (#31773636)
The downside of pumped water, of course, is you need a hydroelectric dam and there are not many sites suitable for that. Those dams also come with significant environmental disruption.

The weight system only requires part of a hillside, has a pretty small environmental footprint, and there are lots and lots of hills.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:20AM (#31774685)
Not true. You can pump water to an existing hydroelectric dam, but you can also just pump it to a pond on a hilltop. No environmental disruption. There are lots of hills.

The rail system needs maintained rolling stock and maintained rails. The mineshaft method is overwhelmingly cheaper and more reliable, because all that must be kept working is an electric winch. There are lots and lots of disused mineshafts.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by WalterBright on Friday June 17, 2022 @03:17PM (#31782986)
Sorry, you can't make hydropower without constructing a dam, turbines, and completely disrupting the stream. This is environmentally destructive, and due to the scale needed, there are few suitable sites.

There are indeed many unused mineshafts, but a shaft would be only suitable for a small weight, maybe enough for a single house. This does not scale.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by pfdietz on Friday June 17, 2022 @07:21PM (#31785742)
Pumped hydro doesn't require a stream, since it isn't harvesting energy from a preexisting flow of water.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by WalterBright on Friday June 17, 2022 @09:36PM (#31786582)
How are you going to create a large enough pond?
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by pfdietz on Saturday June 18, 2022 @02:31PM (#31792471)
This involves moving earth in places with suitable topography. The economics depends on both the vertical offset between the two reservoirs, and how much earth has to be moved per unit of reservoir volume.

Algorithms have been created to use GIS data to automatically find potential PHES sites. There are lots of candidates. Australia, for example, has 300x more potential that it would need for a 100% renewable grid.

http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/global/

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Saturday June 18, 2022 @08:12PM (#31794961)
Often there is already a depression you can use as is. Or deepen, and use the excavation for a dike.

If not, maybe there is a box canyon you can close the end of with a dam.

In places, they have flattened a convex hilltop and used the material to make a dike.

Usually you don't need anywhere near as much storage volume as a typical hydroelectric dam reservoir holds.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Saturday June 18, 2022 @12:29AM (#31787257)
Maybe read up? When you just make shit up as you go along, you say dumb things.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by WalterBright on Saturday June 18, 2022 @03:09AM (#31787817)
Asking a question is not making things up.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by WalterBright on Thursday June 16, 2022 @04:09AM (#31763603)
Well, his company is building a pilot plant in Brazil. I suppose we'll find out if he's a genius or not.

> efficiently

Are you sure about that? He said the losses due to pipe friction were considerable.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Thursday June 16, 2022 @04:23AM (#31763666)
Losses turn out not to matter much when opex is near zero and generation capex is very low. You just build a little more top-line generating capacity.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by qsdf38100 on Friday June 17, 2022 @07:40AM (#31776721)
70% round trop efficiency. And it’s from actual operational data, not from an optimistic spreadsheet calculation.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Saturday June 18, 2022 @12:54AM (#31787344)
70% is plenty, nowadays.

If the railroad is already built, and disused, that drives down cost.

Cost is what matters most.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by sanderjd on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @07:56PM (#31760955)
I'm interested in those alternative technologies, but I suspect they won't scale as well as batteries. Pumped hydro has been around a long time but it hasn't scaled because it is just very geographically specific.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Thursday June 16, 2022 @04:29AM (#31763694)
Batteries have the very large disadvantage that cost is per Wh stored. Flow batteries can reduce this, as capacity becomes a matter of tankage and electrolyte.

The sweet spot for storage is near-zero opex, very low per-Wh stored capex, and cheap capex per-W in and, particularly, out. Thus, weight for watt-hours, and simple motor / generator for watts in and out.

Synthetic fuel has the appeal that the stored energy is readily tanked and transported, and very saleable; enough so to overcome low round-trip efficiency, expensive electrolysers for W-in, and complicated combined-cycle turbines for W-out.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:42AM (#31763108)
Pumped hydro is far, far less geographically specific than always assumed.

This is partly because it needs no watershed, and partly because transmission lines mean it need not be local.

Anyway pumped hydro is only one of many equally viable alternatives. All will be used. Eventually which ones are cheapest will become clear.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by sanderjd on Thursday June 16, 2022 @07:09PM (#31772119)
I think my assumption with pumped hydro is that there must be something holding it back because it's been mature for a long time, so if it were as useful and scalable as you say, I think it would have been scaled a lot more by now.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:25AM (#31774718)
The overwhelming majority of utility-scale storage today is pumped hydro. It stores and releases many GWh every day. You don't hear much about it because it just works.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by sanderjd on Saturday June 18, 2022 @05:36PM (#31794051)
Yes but is still a small amount of energy relative to total demand and there don't seem to be serious efforts to scale it up massively. I don't claim to know why there aren't. Maybe there should be. It just makes me suspicious when I see a mature technology that still sees limited deployment, that there is a good reason for that.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by zdragnar on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @06:50PM (#31760433)
Kinetic (water gravity, flywheel) or thermal (molten salt baths which can be supplemented with solar thermal).

None of these things exist at a large scale except for pumped hydro / water gravity, and that requires very convenient topography and geology to work. Generally, any non-chemical storage system is overpriced (too inefficient) or a maintenance disaster.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Thursday June 16, 2022 @05:12AM (#31763947)
Pumped hydro is not kinetic.

Not much storage exists because it has not been built yet. It has not been built yet because we haven't the renewable generating capacity to charge it from yet. Thus, we are spending on renewable generating capacity first, and lately factories that will build storage systems.

Battery storage is the most expensive variety. Round-trip efficiency is not very important anymore. I.e., other concerns dominate now. Anyway, gravity storage efficiency has always been fine.

Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by User23 on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:40AM (#31762764)
Flywheels and molten salt both have pretty gnarly failure modes too. Not Chernobyl bad, but still no fun.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:44AM (#31763123)
Underground flywheels are perfectly safe, and more easily kept evacuated. But they won't be used much at utility scale, because they are expensive per Wh stored. Maximum storage is dictated by tensile strength of the wheel material, and each wheel needs its own motor / generator.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by sanderjd on Wednesday June 15, 2022 @07:57PM (#31760967)
Do you think those technologies will be scaled such that batteries are a "negligible fraction" of utility storage, or are you just giving examples of possibilities?
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Thursday June 16, 2022 @06:37AM (#31764457)
Numerous technologies will be scaled. Those mentioned adjacent are just very easily understood examples. Utilities will have criteria other than "easily understood", cost chief among them.
Re:Nuclear is back on the table for a green future by ncmncm on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:43AM (#31763116)
A negligible fraction of storage will be in flywheels.