Re:Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse
by naveen99 on Sunday June 05, 2022 @08:05AM
(#31630230)
News is gain (of knowledge) good or bad. bad news is an opportunity to fix some weak links. Good news is an opportunity to reduce leverage, replenish reserves.
Confidence is useful. It reduces volatility in the market.
Re:Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse
by nonrandomstring on Sunday June 05, 2022 @06:24PM
(#31635390)
We're using two different senses of a word that seem irreconcilable.
You offer a very narrow, statistical definition that pertains to the
goodness/accuracy of information. I am using a psychological term that
reflects the feelings people have irrespective of ground truths.
These are almost opposite (at least incompatible) interpretations. And
yet semantically I suspect we completely agree - acting on good
information is good, and acting on bad judgement is bad.
As I am sure you know, a "confidence trick" is a way to defraud another by influencing their (psychological) confidence (or pessimism) against their better judgement and in spite of the objective facts.
I like this. It's insightful, and stated in a plain way.
And equally we can say, once we start regarding good news as a gain, very bad stuff happens.
The idea of "confidence" rather than measurable, tangible facts as an economic basis has been the road to many bad things. In some ways confidence and pessimism can be seen as the ability to ignore reality. We've been inventing ways to delude ourselves in western economies for decades. For example, film and record companies counting copyright infringement as if it were an actual loss, or Twitter over-counting its users as a kind of corporate egotism.
What might really help our societies on multiple levels is a return to fact-based economics, instead of what is essentially information warfare directed at pulling off ever more audacious confidence tricks.