We're using two different senses of a word that seem irreconcilable. You offer a very narrow, statistical definition that pertains to the goodness/accuracy of information. I am using a psychological term that reflects the feelings people have irrespective of ground truths. These are almost opposite (at least incompatible) interpretations. And yet semantically I suspect we completely agree - acting on good information is good, and acting on bad judgement is bad.

As I am sure you know, a "confidence trick" is a way to defraud another by influencing their (psychological) confidence (or pessimism) against their better judgement and in spite of the objective facts.