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Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by RajT88 on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @03:31PM (#31007230)
I am always surprised at how often people who know each other randomly run into each other in an airport.

I mean, what are the odds?

I only had it happen once, but it was nuts. A guy from my previous company I ran into randomly in Frankfurt while I was on my way to India. He lives in California, I live in Chicago. We were on the same flight to Bangalore. Our trips had nothing to do with each other, other than we both work in tech and were visiting tech companies. Neither of us traveled internationally all that often.

I knew a half dozen folks with crazy "what are the odds" stories like that.

Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by _moof on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @03:43PM (#31007379)
Hub-and-spoke routing + "it's not a small world, it's a small social class/industry/demographic/what-have-you" + the tendency for industries to cluster geographically.

And what are the odds people meet in the first place? Those exact same factors are what make folks run into each other again later. It would actually be weird if you never ran into people you know.

>…Bangalore. Our trips had nothing to do with each other, other than we both work in tech and were visiting tech companies.

Bangalore is a tech city, and you both worked in tech. That's how you ran into each other.

Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by bduerst on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @05:34PM (#31008493)
Yep, and throw in that humans are just bad at estimating statistics.

Like the birthday paradox: If there are just 23 people in a room, then there's a 50% probability that two people share the same birthday.

Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by infiniteL0Op on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @06:09PM (#31008859)
What's the math behind this?

And is this for day-month or day-month-year?

Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by NavinF on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @08:14PM (#31009740)
Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by RajT88 on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @04:36PM (#31007937)
> Bangalore is a tech city, and you both worked in tech. That's how you ran into each other.

I'll throw you another curve ball:

He was working in the same complex, and we'd run into each other at lunch.

The project he was there for was one I would have been assigned to, if I hadn't left our previous company. (I was the #1 SME for that bit of software)

Therefore, I would have been the one sent there anyways that week, and been in that area. I actually confirmed this with my old boss.

Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by tzs on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @07:56PM (#31009640)
> I am always surprised at how often people who know each other randomly run into each other in an airport.

I'm surprised at how few times I've run into people I know when out and about shopping or doing other normal daily activities.

I live and work in a town with a population of around 11k. Coworkers live in that town, or one about 9 miles away with a population of around 22k, or one with a population of about 41k that is about 20 miles away in the same direction as that second town so the second town is in the middle.

This area has one Best Buy, one Target, one Barnes and Noble, one Walmart Supercenter, one Office Max, one Staples, and one mall all located in the middle town except the Walmart Supercenter which is in the 11k town. There are a few movie theaters but the quality varies a lot and most people I know only go to 2 of them.

In ~20 years these are the only times I've run into people I know which out doing ordinary things:

1. Two times I ran into a coworkers or former coworker at Best Buy.

2. One time at a gas station I saw a coworker getting gas at the same time.

3. One time I ran into a coworker while grocery shopping.

4. One time I ran into my dental hygienist while grocery shopping.

5. One time my doctor was having lunch at the same sandwich shop as me.

I would have thought that in 20 years, with a pool of 2 or 3 dozen coworkers or former coworkers living in the area, I'd run into people I know a lot more often.

Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by jrumbut on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @09:39PM (#31010305)
Same, yet strangely enough I keep bumping into unexpected people in airports.
Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by bombcar on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @03:59PM (#31007564)
From what I read once, the chance is significantly higher than you expect, something like if you are in a major airport, there's a 50% chance someone you know is also at the same airport.

This is because the group of people who travel often is surprisingly small, and so overlap will happen much more likely than you think.

Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by layer8 on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @03:36PM (#31007297)
It’s probably just a symptom of humans being very bad at estimating odds.
Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by Sirened on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @06:58PM (#31009240)
teenagers even less so. He's _twenty one_ and has been running the site since he was thirteen years old.
Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by morsch on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @03:34PM (#31007274)
Seems like a variation of the birthday paradox.
Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by layer8 on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @03:37PM (#31007310)
Not exactly, because the scenario isn’t “any two people on the plane” but “me and another person on the plane”.
Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by PheonixPharts on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @04:37PM (#31007941)
We can see the full paradox at work here. The parent clearly states:

> how often people who know each other randomly run into each other in an airport.

> I mean, what are the odds?

This is explicitly stating "any two people" (and it's at an airport not a plane, so more people). But then follows up with changing the framing of question they're asking:

> I only had it happen once, but it was nuts.

The birthday paradox is only a paradox because we tend to think of birthdays in a very personal manner. So when we think of "any two people sharing a birthday" we immediately change this to "someone having my birthday", without realizing we've fundamentally changes the question we're asking.

Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by layer8 on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @05:57PM (#31008731)
The OP however isn’t surprised by the actual odds of any two people randomly running into each other, but by the fact that it happened to them or acquaintances. They actually don’t know what the odds would be for the whole airport or plane. With the birthday paradox, on the other hand, the thing that people are surprised about is not how often it happens to them, but the actual odds for a given group size of people.
Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by projektfu on Wednesday April 13, 2022 @06:18AM (#31012959)
Yes, but if it happened to someone else, that person might be on here expressing surprise and OP would be amusedly reading it.

I was in two classes where the birthday paradox was discussed, at different universities. Both times it was my birthday that was shared with someone else. What are the odds?

Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by paxys on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @04:22PM (#31007786)
It is still not another specific person, but anyone you know, which is a pretty large set.
Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by layer8 on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @05:51PM (#31008667)
The birthday paradox is a paradox due to the quadratic odds. If you fix one person (yourself), the odds are only linear.
Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by brk on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @04:23PM (#31007795)
I ran into someone who had interviewed at my company, we were bot on an inter-airport shuttle in I think Berlin. He was based in CA, I was in MA, and we weren't really in the same industry (his knowledge base was tangent to what we did, thus the interview), and not traveling for the same event.

Have had a handful of similar scenarios, seeing someone I know when we are in a far-away random place. I think it had to do a lot with I was traveling frequently at the time (200K miles/year), to all kinds of random places.

Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by denton-scratch on Wednesday April 13, 2022 @05:45AM (#31012755)
So I know this particular guy named X; naturally I'm astonished to bump into him randomly on a specific flight from Y airport.

But I know 200 people, and I take ten flights a year, there are about 200 travellers on each flight, and such random bumpings don't happen more than once a decade. It's rather unlikely that I won't randomly bump into someone I know, on some flight, sooner or later.

But when it does happen, I'll still be surprised.

Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by jacquesm on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @03:45PM (#31007400)
When I flew a lot I would run into regulars and people that I knew at least a couple of times every year.
Re:RaidForums gets raided, alleged admin arrested by baby on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @04:28PM (#31007856)
I actually ran many times into people that I know, in different parts of the world. The weirdest one was running into some French dude I had met skiing in France on a boat in Thailand. It's a small world.