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Re:The singularity is close? by idontwantthis on Friday April 01, 2022 @12:14AM (#30875113)
I will continue dismissing AGI until someone can tell me what GI is. I don't believe that it's just statistical inferences run in parallel (Machine Learning).

If we don't know what GI is, then I don't know how we are supposed to replicate it.

It's like if we wanted to produce power on Earth the same way as the Sun does, but without knowing that was fusion. So we were just trying to make things look like the Sun. Someone says "Look, I made a ball so hot you can't look at it, we must be close!"

I believe we will have fusion eventually because it is a process that we deeply understand, it's just hard to do.

I don't believe we are on a path to AGI right now because know one understands even a little bit of GI.

Re:The singularity is close? by Xcelerate on Friday April 01, 2022 @01:07AM (#30875362)
> I will continue dismissing AGI until someone can tell me what GI is

Here's a rather famous recommendation for a definition of general intelligence: https://arxiv.org/pdf/0712.3329.pdf

Very loosely paraphrasing their paper, general intelligence is the ability to adapt to novel situations and predict the future better than any other algorithm could do.

Personally, I think of perfect AGI as this: given that our universe is capable of approximation to arbitrary precision using a universal Turing machine (and infinite time and memory), AGI is the best* computable approximation to Solomonoff induction.

*"best" being some mathematical notion of optimality.

Re:The singularity is close? by eru on Friday April 01, 2022 @01:25AM (#30875429)
> Very loosely paraphrasing their paper, general intelligence is the ability to adapt to novel situations and predict the future better than any other algorithm could do.

The 'better than any other algorithm' part seems to make this into a pretty weird definition?

By that standard only John von Neumann [0] was intelligent, because every other human wasn't as smart as him?

I suspect any reasonable definition of intelligence has to work on a 'good enough' basis, not on optimality.

The paper you linked is quite interesting, and I'll be reading it now. I suspect your summary was perhaps a bit too brisk, and their more careful longer definition survives this trivial objection?

[0] Replace von Neumann with your favourite genius.

Re:The singularity is close? by idontwantthis on Friday April 01, 2022 @01:29AM (#30875461)
Humans are terrible at pretty much everything except what they are specifically highly trained in.

von Neuman was a genius, but he also actively promoted nuclear war. Does that mean he is or is not intelligent? Do you think in a world where von Neuman got to nuke the USSR in 1950, we would be happy we gave him the keys?

Re:The singularity is close? by eru on Friday April 01, 2022 @03:51AM (#30876066)
Ignore von Neumann, he was just an example.

Basically, with the definition as given in the comment, only whatever matches up with the smartest thing around would count as intelligent. (Whether that's the smartest thing currently around, or the smartest thing possible even in theory isn't quite clear.)

In any case, von Neumann was definitely extremely intelligent for a human. Don't conflate intelligence with wisdom, or with having goals that align with yours.

Re:The singularity is close? by aqsalose on Friday April 01, 2022 @05:03AM (#30876402)
Quoting the key definition:

"Bringing all these pieces together, we can now define our formal measure of intelligence for arbitrary systems. Let E be the space of all computable reward summable environmental measures with respect to the reference machine U, and let K be the Kolmogorov complexity function. The expected performance of agent π with respect to the universal distribution 2−K(μ) over the space of all environments E is given by Υ(π) := [unquotable latex expression]. We call this the universal intelligence of agent π."

It is an useless kind of mathematical object from any practical perspective. Sure, some formal object is defined, but all the actual important things to use it are left as difficult, possibly devilishly or impossibly difficult implementation details. How do you actually build a map from the physical reality to environment E? How the agent π is mapped to any real physical being? All the real work that would make the definition useful is left out.

It is like defining complexity classes without providing any algorithms.

edit. Further complaint: Here is how they present "examples":

>A very specialised agent. From the equation for Υ, we see that an agent could have very low universal intelligence but still perform extremely well at a few very specific and complex tasks. Consider, for example, IBM’s Deep Blue chess supercomputer, which we will represent by π_dblue. When μ_chess describes the game of chess, V π_dblue μ_chess is very high. However 2−K(μ_chess ) is small, and for μ != μ_chess the value function will be low as π_dblue only plays chess. Therefore, the value of Υ(π_dblue) will be very low. Intuitively, this is because Deep Blue is too inflexible and narrow to have general intelligence; a characteristic weakness of specialised artificial intelligence systems.

Why they need any formal definition of Y to express this if they don't bother fleshing out some features of μ_chess so that you could provide any bounds for K(μ_chess)? Without such work, all of the actual claims in the paragraph is all appeal to intuition. Nothing is proved, so any formal definitions are unused. The contents of the quoted paragraph could be expressed without referring to any equations or "definitions" at all, they are totally superfluous.

Re:The singularity is close? by idontwantthis on Friday April 01, 2022 @01:22AM (#30875418)
So are humans not GI then? We are terrible at predicting the future, in general. "Frustration" is the feeling of things not going how you thought they would or should.
Re:The singularity is close? by novok on Friday April 01, 2022 @02:09AM (#30875607)
I didn't read the paper, but going along with the sun metaphor, your description kind of sounds like "hot ball in sky that radiates light". It still doesn't describe fusion.
Re:The singularity is close? by VladimirGolovin on Friday April 01, 2022 @01:28AM (#30875451)
Here's a definition from Shane Legg and Marcus Hutter:

Universal Intelligence: A Definition of Machine Intelligence https://arxiv.org/abs/0712.3329

Re:The singularity is close? by simonh on Friday April 01, 2022 @05:59AM (#30876615)
What do you mean by "dismiss AGI"? Do you dismiss the idea that we are currently on a developmental path to achieving AGI in the medium term (a lifetime or two) with current approaches, or do you dismiss the idea that AGI is possible at all?

I would agree on the former, but that in no way implies the latter.

Re:The singularity is close? by hutzlibu on Friday April 01, 2022 @12:45AM (#30875276)
" I don't believe that it's just statistical inferences run in parallel"

Why not? I also believe, there must be something more, but I cannot articulate it.

But as disturbing as it sounds, most natural learning might be just this. Lots of statistics run in parallel.

Re:The singularity is close? by idontwantthis on Friday April 01, 2022 @01:07AM (#30875360)
And what about things people do that don’t make any statistical sense?

Is it AGI if it picks up its underwear the first time you ask, or is it only AGI once it waits for you to get angry after the fifth time you ask?

Re:The singularity is close? by hutzlibu on Friday April 01, 2022 @01:53AM (#30875533)
"And what about things people do that don’t make any statistical sense?"

Like what? It is always individual statistics made up from partly faulty data. It is never objective, what mattered in a evolutionary sense, was that it works good enough. (like ants algorithms are not perfect, but get the job done most of the time. I watched ants a lot ...)

Re:The singularity is close? by idontwantthis on Friday April 01, 2022 @02:04AM (#30875590)
So we are intelligent statistical engines but usually very bad at updating our priors. If you make a machine that can drive a car, but doesn’t like to because it’s father frequently had road rage, is that AGI? If you build that but then “fix” that behavior out of it then is it still AGI?
Re:The singularity is close? by hutzlibu on Friday April 01, 2022 @02:24AM (#30875672)
Consciousness is something, I cannot explain at all with statistics (or any other mechanism).

True AGI by my definition would require consciousness, but as far as I know, there is also no general accepted definition of consciousness either.

Re:The singularity is close? by eru on Friday April 01, 2022 @04:26AM (#30876241)
That's the beauty of the Turing test: it avoids having to worry about consciousness.

(Of course, passing the Turing test wouldn't be necessary for intelligence, at most it's sufficient. Otherwise, humans who lost the ability to produce language but are otherwise quite smart and capable would count as non-intelligent.)

Re:The singularity is close? by idontwantthis on Friday April 01, 2022 @12:46AM (#30875282)
That’s just my belief. I might get proven wrong, but I haven’t been so far.
Re:The singularity is close? by ilaksh on Friday April 01, 2022 @01:32AM (#30875475)
See M. Mitchell's Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans