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Re:The US Marines Got Rid of Their Tanks. Is Ukraine Making ... by ThrowawayR2 on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @10:31PM (#30850922)
The one thing I don't understand about this debate is that if tanks are incurably vulnerable to drones and ATGMs and therefore obsolete, then why aren't IFVs/APCs, artillery, and transport vehicles obsolete for the same reason? Logically, they would be equally vulnerable since both weapons systems work just as well on them.
Re:The US Marines Got Rid of Their Tanks. Is Ukraine Making ... by clioharper on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @11:31PM (#30851243)
Some of the elements that you've mentioned are subject to divestment as well. The Marine Corps is abandoning their long-trusted M777 howitzer in favor of HIMARs, which are self-propelled and purported to be more mobile than a M777. There is a fair amount of disagreement in the artillery community over this choice among the guys on the ground from what I understand. Many platforms used in the military and Marine Corps are inherently vulnerable to attack. The question you have to ask is whether you can take the budget that would be allocated to one platform and use it better elsewhere. As with many other things in life, this comes down to a constrained optimization problem with many different factors to consider.

Overall, an aggressor has to "find, fix, and finish" the enemy to complete the kill chain. My understanding is that the general idea is to invest in platforms can move quickly, continue to decentralize command, and adopt a new warfare doctrine for the "pacing threat" in the Pacific. If you're interested in learning about contemporary doctrine--particularly in the Marine Corps--I'd suggest you look into EABO, which is the war-fighting doctrine that's being proposed for conflicts in the Pacific.

Re:The US Marines Got Rid of Their Tanks. Is Ukraine Making ... by MonkeyClub on Wednesday March 30, 2022 @04:42AM (#30852743)
Re:The US Marines Got Rid of Their Tanks. Is Ukraine Making ... by dandelany on Wednesday March 30, 2022 @12:14AM (#30851431)
What is obsolete is the doctrine of “armored warfare”, the idea that armor is the primary weapon on the battlefield that allows you to break through enemy defenses. In the days of trench warfare, tanks were a “disruptive technology” - an almost invulnerable mobile fortress that allowed armies to completely change the script on the battlefield by blitzing up the middle and breaking stalemates.

Now that ATGMs are everywhere, armor is no longer invulnerable enough for this to be the main strategy - you need “combined arms operations” - infantry and air support to protect the armor. The Russians are not acting like this is the case, which is why their tanks are getting destroyed left and right.

Armored vehicles will never be obsolete - if you’re sending in infantry or artillery or whatever, it’s still better to have armor for eg. small arms fire and shrapnel - you just can’t rely on its strength as the core of your strategy.

Re:The US Marines Got Rid of Their Tanks. Is Ukraine Making ... by jeromescuggs on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @10:39PM (#30850970)
i covered the same thing, here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30759775

tl;dr: the russians are demonstrating the failure of a particular strategy/theory on how to deploy and use armor, not a failure of the concept of armor itself.

Re:The US Marines Got Rid of Their Tanks. Is Ukraine Making ... by d1sxeyes on Wednesday March 30, 2022 @05:32AM (#30853063)
I'm not even sure that that's completely accurate. I think the Russians are demonstrating a failure to accurately assess the likely strength of their enemy.

In Georgia in 2008, skirmishes began in earnest on 8th August, and Russia were ready to roll into Tbilisi by the 14th.

I believe that Putin expected Ukraine to be very similar to Georgia - very fast advances to the capital, and ultimately capitulation from the Ukrainians to the Russians almost immediately.

The key to winning in Georgia was an overwhelming display of force. In Ukraine, I believe the strategy was the same - let Ukrainians see tank after tank after tank rolling through their villages, gently 'soften' the cities with artillery before rolling through the cities, and reach the capital in a few days. Furthermore, I think Putin genuinely wanted to avoid civilian and military casualties as much as possible, so a 'blitzkrieg' was preferable.

If you're moving that quickly, you don't need supply lines, you don't need logistics to the same extent, especially if your plan is not to occupy, just to withdraw after (for example) reinstating Yanukovic.

I think it's a legitimate strategy, but they gambled that they'd be able to achieve it and lost. That miscalculation has cost Russia a lot of time, morale, and equipment. I think now they're starting to adjust to the reality, which is that Ukraine were stronger than they were expecting in the first place, and on top of that, they're being supplied with weapons and real-time intelligence from the West. Assuming diplomatic efforts continue to fail, I see Russia now withdrawing to territory they are confident they control, and consolidating their forces, and beginning a war of attrition, which in the long run, Russia are likely to win.

However, there's a good chance that diplomacy will be successful. This war is incredibly costly for Russia, and if Putin finds a way to spin it that Russia have 'won' or 'achieved their objective' or whatever, then I think he will take that route - provided Russia maintains control of Sevastopol.

Re:The US Marines Got Rid of Their Tanks. Is Ukraine Making ... by AniseAbyss on Tuesday March 29, 2022 @11:21PM (#30851206)
Everything is vulnerable. The US has just been lucky its been fighting yokels who didn't get frequent shipments of modern weaponry.

If the USMC ever finds themselves in the situation of having to storm the beaches of Hainan may God help them. But then the US nor China are dumb enough to get dragged into a fight like that.

Re:The US Marines Got Rid of Their Tanks. Is Ukraine Making ... by rnk on Wednesday March 30, 2022 @01:49AM (#30851857)
What's going to happen in Taiwan as China gets ever closing to some kind of direct attack. No, we won't land on Chinese land to help them. There's always the point that it is hard to make an amphibious attack on Taiwan. Eventually China will attack them, then what will the US do to help? Then there are the potential for island battles in the ocean.
Re:The US Marines Got Rid of Their Tanks. Is Ukraine Making ... by fsckboy on Wednesday March 30, 2022 @02:26AM (#30852059)
is there any evidence of the Chinese military being particularly effective? And not sure you can say that the Chinese don't plan to get dragged into a fight that starts with them storming beaches.