Israel has a large and growing ultra-Orthodox population, with an average of 7.1 children per woman among the ultra-Orthodox Jews: https://en.idi.org.il/articles/25385

The US has a similar fertility-focused religious movement, but it's much more fringe and relatively smaller. Religious beliefs can drive super-high birth rates in pretty much any society, but aside from Israel, higher education has been associated with lower rates of religious belief. Declining religious participation and intensity of belief may well be contributing to the fall in global birth-rates.

People are quick suggesting it is Orthodox, but in reality non-religious women in Israel have a fertility rate of 2.5, and overall contribution mounts over time as generations pass.

two factors in Israel might explain

1) immigration - of course Israel grants the right of every Jewish person to live in Israel, in fact paid an incentive to relocate. Presumably there a constant inflow from the Jewish diaspora and their descendants which might supplement the population

2) orthodox families, I'm guessing, have outsized families. Where women do not participate in the market economy, they end up having lots of kids instead

Again, no idea on the percentage contributions of either of these cases, but it might go some way toward explaining Israel's countervailing trend!

I encountered (but did not shake hands with! ;) a lot of conservative women with 5+ kids in the workforce while in Israel. Much more than men, where I encountered less strict observance. It was a pretty interesting culture difference.

> Where women do not participate in the market economy

It's not just women. Somewhere around half of Haredi men do not work.

> Somewhere around half of Haredi men do not work.

Or, stated less pejoratively, somewhere around half of Haredi men devote their lives to scholarship.

Or stated more practically, somewhere around half of Haredi men are given handouts by the state to do no productive work.

I mean I'm not a huge fan of Israel due to their history, but to say that the religious scholar class in Israel does no productive work is strange. Just because they don't make anything you can sell for a profit, doesn't mean they don't add very real value to people's lives

Israel is a lifeboat not an office.

Well the boat won't be able to go anywhere if an increasing number of the occupants refuse paddle. Also, gentle reminder that more Jews live in the US than in Israel.

Scholarship which has produced what findings?

How do they get money?

Handouts from the state. Haredi tend to be very non-consumerist so they make do with little money.

Iirc Israel's large Orthodox community is responsible for most of the growth

https://www.timesofisrael.com/haredi-population-growing-twic...

At the expense of growing and ultimately suffocating population density. Eventually, they will have to make adjustments to offset this problem.

Couldn't they just expand into neighboring countries and push the others out? Israel has a super well equipped military.

Oh man, don't lure me into this political flamewars, esp. the most vicious of all the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Combination of religious groups that favor big families plus immigration from low income countries where large families are still commmon?

What in the world?

They were in education jobs until Covid, and now they’re in commerce jobs, but they’re obviously not productive members of society because of their religion?!?

> they’re obviously not productive members of society because of their religion?

As shocking as it might sound, yes.

Well when there are still workers in Israel because of them you can come back and apologize for claiming they weren’t being productive.

It’s laughable to claim that people producing literal other people aren’t being productive.

Again over half of Haredi men choose to live off state handouts. Their women are anyways treated as second class citizens. If this remains the case, with their increasing numbers they will need more handouts which paid for by the rest of the population. It's not hard to see why this isn't sustainable.

TFR amongst secular Jewish women in Israel is 2.5. That's comfortably above the replacement level.

no, they're not productive because they live off of goverment handouts. ANYBODY who takes more than they give is unproductive. Middleschoolers are unproductive, incarcerated felons are unproductive, people living off government grants are unproductive

How much government money does it take to get another human being?

A woman who has a child is infinitely more productive than you are giving her credit for.