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Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by ukraineally on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @12:49PM (#30530277)
>So, and I realize all answers will be pure conjecture, what happens if the sanctions work? What's the end game? Can the proverbial tiger be put back in the cage?

Literally everyone in the world is hoping the sanctions work. If it does, it tells the world even a nuclear power can't attack sovereign nations and get away with it. If it doesn't... then humanity is not post-war and we're about to get into a nuclear world war.

>Russia has invaded Ukraine and Europe has responded in a unified manor. China gave muted support, but largely stayed out of it (at least vocally - but still traded with them).

No they didn't. China picked up the phone with Putin on day 1 and said peace talks immediately and made comment they respect Ukraines sovereignty as well as the security needs for all involved. China appears to have been sideswipped and used as as shield by putin.

>China is, of course, watching very closely, as they have their own expansionist interests.

This is seeming more and more like Russian propaganda. China has 75 years of foreign policy showing no expansion. They have all the factories and a gigantic standing army. They could expand and take quite alot. Yet they dont because they know war isn't the way. Invest the war money back in yourself and grow taller.

>How does/can Russia get out of this and save face?

Every good negotiator makes it possible for their opponent to save face. Russia has a huge and simple one they provided themselves. "Nazi government was toppled, we are guaranteeing the new republics. White Peace out." Though to get sanctions lifted im sure there will be reparations to be paid.

>Where will this go with social/cyber warfare - it has to ramp-up dramatically, no? Now that western Europe has increased its military spending, what does that mean for the "World Police" American stance that has been so prevalent since the late 40's?

Everyone is making this about the USA... the Russian propaganda was running all these 'USA imperialism' which hey... they have to get in line... the commonwealth is up first... but the USA didn't do anything. Didnt get involved other than showing unity with the EU. Russia probably predicted the USA would act. In fact, it looks like an awful lot of effort is being done to curb the ongoing russian propaganda internally for most countries.

> Does this, in fact push forward clean technology, or will it hinder it as now America and Canada sit in a prime spot to export fuel and make record profits for decades - environment be damned?

Usa and Canada are leading the way with clean tech in many ways. We have 10,000 trees per person. Canadian solar is top notch. Our automotive industry has pivoted in an instant to manufacturing EVs. Coal plants are gone or going? The only thing I think Canada is missing out on is nuclear fusion.

The world needs oil still. Oil rich countries are switching over. Lets not exclude awesome scandanavian countries. This hasn't been some sort of Canadian conspiracy to convince Russia to attack a sovereign neighbour. This is Canada being a good ally and offering conflict-free oil.

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by lenkite on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @12:56PM (#30530387)
> China has 75 years of foreign policy showing no expansion.

Err..you might want to check your history there a bit more stringently. And say hello to the invasion and annexation of Tibet. The Sino-India War. The several Sino-Vietnam Wars.

(Vietnamese were probably the most battle-hardened folks in the 1950-1990's era - a half-dozen big foreign powers came for them and they sent every single one packing - though they did loose some territory permanently to China)

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by ukraineally on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:03PM (#30530490)
>Err..you might want to check your history there a bit more stringently. And say hello to Tibet.

Annexation of Tibet: 23 May 1951

Damn it, you're right... that was 71 years ago.

Have anything more recent? Other than the obvious moves against India. Russia, Pakistan, and China sure are eyeing up India.

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by lenkite on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:17PM (#30530703)
The occupation and militarisation of 80-90% of the South China Sea islands which are formally claimed by other nations. Including the Spratly Islands. The Chinese regularly threaten any military vessels that pass through here. Look up videos on youtube on the radio conversations.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3126656/sou...

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/ed8539753d69434596cc239...

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by ukraineally on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:26PM (#30530840)
Ok but it's not some vast annexation over a sovereign nation.

Canada and the USA has an awful lot of these kinds of conflicts. Worse when indigenous rights start to get involved.

Vietnam and China go way back for conflicts.

Our fear here is China invading sovereign neighbours like south korea, japan, australia, and the usa.

Is china planning to do that?

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by lenkite on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:47PM (#30531137)
Well..President Xi has himself openly declared that re-unification of Taiwan - along with all ancient Chinese domains will happen within his term of governance. And no (sane) leader declares more than one planned invasion at a time. So plans for annexation of India's eastern provinces are on hold presently.

Right now China is at the ending stages of modernising its military forces - a process that started a decade and half ago. Once Xi successfully passes his traditional term limits with no hiccups and consolidates his firm control on the CCP over all objectors, you can bet on a Chinese annexation of Taiwan in 2023-25 period. (assuming no economic disasters or another Covid variant)

Japan & South Korea are pretty impossible to annex without extreme mass casualties, especially with the extraordinarily heavy US military curtain and the eye-boggling dense build-up of weapon systems in place.

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by ukraineally on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @02:19PM (#30531583)
>Well..President Xi has himself openly declared that re-unification of Taiwan - along with all ancient Chinese domains will happen within his term of governance. And no (sane) leader declares more than one planned invasion at a time. So plans for annexation of India's eastern provinces are on hold presently.

Lets not forget Manchuria. Russia actively owns chinese land. If one china is so important to invade taiwan... giving up on manchuria seems backwards.

For all I know China invades everything soon and world war 3 triggers. Asia will probably be an absolute shit show. But from my point of view reading xi jinping. It seems more and more like he understands that war isn't good for anyone. The very low funding on military means he can invest so much more into themselves and that's how they grow so much more.

>Japan & South Korea are pretty impossible to annex without extreme mass casualties, especially with the extraordinarily heavy US military curtain and the eye-boggling dense build-up of weapon systems in place.

What I hope for, Sanctions against Russia work really well. War ends and the world tells the world that we are all united against territorial conquest. Our crippling sanctions can even stop a nuclear power.

Then everyone settles down knowing they aren't threatened like this again.

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by lenkite on Thursday March 03, 2022 @08:36AM (#30540773)
> The very low funding on military means he can invest so much more into themselves and that's how they grow so much more

China is now the nation with the second highest military expenditure after the USA. It has increased its military budget continuously year by year. China’s military spending far exceeds that of its neighbours and was greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in 2019.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-chinas-2021-defe... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_...

Due to significant increase in the last few years, all the neighbours are also now forced to drastically increase their expenditure.

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by hardlianotion on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:09PM (#30530589)
Vietnam incursions were in the 1970s I believe. (Now I have checked) seem to have lasted between 1979 - 1991 off and on.

Island and coastal nations of the South China Sea seem concerned about the island militarisation going on. Taiwanese people don't have a particular reason to rest easy either.

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by monkeynotes on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:08PM (#30530565)
Well, they do want Taiwan back.
Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by ukraineally on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:13PM (#30530649)
>Well, they do want Taiwan back.

Back? They currently own it. No country in the world recognizes them as their own country. They are not in the United Nations. They have no alliances.

If Taiwan declares independence and is recognized... and China invades to stop this. Who can even stop China if they decide to take them? Nobody is coming to their aid. This is a super silly thing to say.

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by monkeynotes on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @06:07PM (#30534698)
Republic of China (Aka Taiwan) is not the same thing as The People's Republic of China (Aka China). And pardon me for talking about Taiwan as being sovereign, which it actually is, but I recognise it's a little more complex than that: https://international.thenewslens.com/feature/taiwan-for-sal...

Anyway, you are more wrong that I am.

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by simonh on Thursday March 03, 2022 @04:07AM (#30538829)
I don't think it makes any sense to say China 'owns' Taiwan. For all the formalisms you list, PRC exerts no controlling influence over life in Taiwan whatsoever. It has a free market economy, free elections, free media and makes it's own trade and political agreements internationally. These are the things that really matter.
Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by dirtyid on Thursday March 03, 2022 @04:19AM (#30538913)
>These are the things that really matter.

And in event of PRC attempting to reunify TW, formalism will categorize that as a civil war, not an international one where sovereignty is violated like current RU/UKR conflict. As far as I know, PRC doesn't need UNSC approval to finish an civil war, it's already dejure a legal ongoing war. Plus there's all sorts ambiguity on 3rd parties aiding UKR with lethal aid right now, but aiding TW will be declaration of war with PRC. These are the things that really matter politically when bombs start exploding.

I suppose it makes more sense to say PRC owns "China" including TW in the same way it makes sense to say TW owns "China" including mainland.

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by lenkite on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:21PM (#30530765)
Yeah, they raised the alarm about Covid and the WHO just flat-out ignored them at China's behest.
Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by stjohnswarts on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @04:47PM (#30533666)
No one is going to invade India unless they want to welcome nuclear annihilation and face 1.5 billion angry Indians.
Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by lenkite on Thursday March 03, 2022 @05:39AM (#30539380)
India & China both have a formal "No First Use" position that has been repeatedly reaffirmed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use

A grab of a portion of east Indian states via conventional warfare, followed by cease-fire and negotiations is very much in the ambit of China's strategy. Modi is attempting to prevent this by scaling up military infrastructure on the eastern front, but its still way-way behind what China already has in place. (by orders of magnitude)

https://www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/2021/oct/... https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/new-weapons-deploy...

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by secondcoming on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:05PM (#30530521)
> China has 75 years of foreign policy showing no expansion

How could you type this with a straight face?

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by monkeynotes on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:08PM (#30530555)
> Canadian solar is top notch

Can you give examples, because from my limited view all Canada has in terms of renewables is hyrdo.

All of our automotive industry is owned by foreign manufacturers and relationships with Detroit are strained [1]. Plants have been shut down [2]. Canada has only just started to adopt EV, Europe is way ahead [3]. I will concede that both Europe and Canada aim to phase out IC engines by 2035.

In my opinion the stupid investment in that pipeline the government bought from the Americans after they backed out was a huge mis-step. That money could have been spent investing in solar.

[1] https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/car-plants-bridge-1.6346556 [2] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/gm-closing-oshawa-fac... [3] https://www.canadianmetalworking.com/canadianmetalworking/ar...

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by ukraineally on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:46PM (#30531117)
>Can you give examples, because from my limited view all Canada has in terms of renewables is hyrdo.

For example, https://www.canadiansolar.com/ Windmills and solar farms are everywhere.

That I suppose is another huge problem in canada, we have a severe lack of grid scale energy storage. Be it pumped hydro or whatever.

In fact, one of the big problems in our grid is how many greenhouses have switched to led and sodium lighting. TONS more energy is being consumed. Also a huge problem for astronomers.

>All of our automotive industry is owned by foreign manufacturers and relationships with Detroit are strained [1]. Plants have been shut down [2]. Canada has only just started to adopt EV, Europe is way ahead [3]. I will concede that both Europe and Canada aim to phase out IC engines by 2035.

That would be somewhat old news. Most of those plants have either plans to reopen or have reopened. Not to mentioned several new plants being built in ontario.

No doubt many places in Europe are way ahead and not to mention the USA is kicking our butt as well.

>In my opinion the stupid investment in that pipeline the government bought from the Americans after they backed out was a huge mis-step. That money could have been spent investing in solar.

Hindsight 20/20. Unless I can borrow your Tardis, I can't go change it.

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by monkeynotes on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @06:01PM (#30534626)
I count 3 or 4 Canadian Solar projects. Most of the projects they are involved with are in other countries: https://www.canadiansolar.com/successful-projects/

As for hindsight, governments are supposed to have foresight in how they manage the country. The myopic vision is what I object to.

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by diordiderot on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @12:56PM (#30530388)
People forget the trump white house tried to disuade Ukraine from joining the EU
Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by ukraineally on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:06PM (#30530536)
>People forget the trump white house tried to disuade Ukraine from joining the EU

I liked Trump in many ways but...

The day of the invasion... everything the democrats ever said were proven true. Trump was clearly starting shit with China because he's team Putin. Made the USA fear China and China became defensive and threatened by the USA. Meanwhile it was all just a play by Russia.

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by stjohnswarts on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @04:50PM (#30533690)
Trump is in Putin's hip pocket, there is more going on there than just "admiration". Putin has something on Trump that would ruin even him in the eyes of the worshipful Trump-thralls.
Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by riku_iki on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:05PM (#30530515)
> China picked up the phone with Putin on day 1 and said peace talks immediately and made comment they respect Ukraines sovereignty as well as the security needs for all involved. China appears to have been sideswipped and used as as shield by putin.

This is just public display. Actions matter: will they continue buying Russian gas and oil?

Re:Russia's top bank quits Europe due to sanctions by ukraineally on Wednesday March 02, 2022 @01:11PM (#30530609)
>This is just public display. Actions matter: will they continue buying Russian gas and oil?

Russia's diplomacy was pure lies. Maybe it's true of China? If actions matter: what has china done wrong exactly? Have they invaded anyone yet?

Continuing to trade with a trade partner isn't an indictment.