> Even in the most optimistic scenario I can't imagine this will be anything but a catastrophe for Russia.

The danger now is that Putin may be irreversibly committed, backed into a corner. Doesn't matter that it was a situation of his own making--it's become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If Ukrainians are rightly Russians as he claims, then what he's done is proven in spectacular fashion that Russian culture is capable of building a modern, progressive, and democratic national identity to which the population is willing to give their lives. That undeniably poses an existential crisis for the Russian regime and more generally it's entire historical political self-identity.

I know some people have argued that this is why Putin invaded in the first place. But I believe Putin, like most Russians, simply believed that the political culture was incapable of democracy. And most of the West strongly suspected that as well. IMO, Putin merely wanted to consolidate what he considered to be areas of natural cultural affinity, to Russia's geostrategic benefit, of course.

People keep saying that Putin is threatened by democracy in Ukraine, but I find it unconvincing. Democratic countries had no problem making friends with dictators - just think of America's former (and current) allies. Conversely, those same dictators had no problem cozying up to their democratic allies.

These talks of "being threatened by democracy/authoritarianism/whatever" usually sound pretty close to Orientalism or its mirror image.

After all, it would be a piss-poor dictator who can't turn its neighbor's political system into a self-serving rhetoric, whatever the system is.

How’s this (reportedly) 64-km long column of Russian tanks and armor outside Kyiv for ‘irreversibly committed’? (1)

1: https://t.me/uniannet/33675

I’m afraid that Putin can’t afford to lose face now that he’s started.

From one side yes, from the other side in russia there is total blackout on information. News only about victories in LNR/DNR areas and that's it. They close media outlets that call it war and not "special operation". It's forbidden to publicize non-official information and amount of casualties not disclosed and classified.

It allows to have "mission accomplished" moment any time internally and be done with it. All what they need it's some kind of concession from Ukraine in order to show de-nazification/de-militarization that was promised

This column gets longer each time it's posted.

That's good news: that means it isn't moving.

It's going to be an awful mess cleaning up so many millions of tons of burnt scrap metal.

ukraine has metallurgical industry. it can use some scrap. and whatever left in kinda good shape: they can learn from Israel about repurposing old soviet hardware in creative ways

I don't think most Ukrainians care if the stay there.

If Ukrainians continue to put up a good fight and maintain strategically significant control, the risk of a nuclear war increases. With Western weapons flowing into Ukraine, Putin might do something extreme as a scare tactic. I doubt there's much increased risk of a nuclear volley; if Putin did do the unthinkable, the West would almost certainly cease the flow of arms. But that still constitutes a nuclear war, leaving behind a far bleaker and far more unpredictable legacy.

Putin Using a tactical Nuke in Ukraine is the start of WW3.

The west would not stop supplying arms, it would more likely ballistic missile all of Russia committed troops in Ukraine.

I don’t know what the west would do but I can’t imagine they’d stop. I can’t imagine it would be as simple as, “they used a nuke, we all better go home”.

> if Putin did do the unthinkable, the West would almost certainly cease the flow of arms.

I suspect your reasoning isn't correct.

I think from the western perspective we have this all wrong.

Russia only wants to annex the eastern parts of the country, and do to rest of Ukraine what the US and NATO did to Afghanistan and Iraq. With this perspective they're very much on track with what they want to accomplish.

Russia is going to leave most of western Ukraine in a power vacuum and instability and let the world deal with it.

You're absolutely correct, and people downvoting you aren't the ones who know about NATO's war crimes. Putin does not want that for his people.

It's telling that people are not calling for kicking Saudi Arabia off of SWIFT. Or explaining how NATO has been used to bully and attack weaker countries. Iraq comes to mind.

They were hoping for a nice buffer puppet state between them and NATO. It makes a lot of sense, and in Putin's position, it may well have been the call that would lead to the most peace in the future. Now... Not so much.