Impression #1: The Ukrainian population is VERY MOTIVATED.
Impression #2: The West will supply Ukraine's population with as much infantry firepower (TOW, MANPAD, etc) as they need.
As the days go on and military supplies flood into the Ukraine from the west, resistance will increase.
Helicopters and tanks will take heavy, expensive, demoralizing losses against well coordinated anti-armor infantry defense forces.
I also think the Ukrainian population will toughen and get trained/experienced in warfare quickly. Potentially Russia is training multiple millions of soldiers on the Ukrainian side with this attack, and forming a national identity, pride, and will to fight.
The only Russian trump card in those situations is air power.
I don't think this is like Afghanistan or the Iraq/Syria smorgasborg. Ukraine is THE buffer state between Europe and Russia. They are fairly westernized. I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace. I don't think there are nearly as many policy/cultural concerns about supplying serious infantry weapons to the Ukraine.
Even if all of Ukraine's airfields are compromised, likely Ukraine can continue air operations from Romania and the like. Would the West supply Ukraine with replacement air force? Uh, yeah.
Russia had two military hopes:
1) very fast ground total victory (doubt it at this point, why did Russia attack in winter? Because they could get a quick victory they hoped? Even Russian soldiers will have lower morale in winter operations.)
2) win air superiority to enable a ground victory long enough to get puppet regime in and the West gives up support. I think this is where we are now, and I have NO IDEA how the air war is going.
In reality Ukraine got a bunch of stingers in last few months. It seems to use it rather effectively to bring down planes and helicopters (saw today at morning video of couple of russian planes shot down). Also russia failed to knock off air defenses. Additionally there is a bunch of BUK/Panzir systems that russian solders left on a roads (saw a few videos) that probably will be repurposed
And last point, russian air force it's not exactly modern air force with guided bombs. It's just good old carpet bombing
Russia should have a "modern air force" for some approximation of "modern". If they don't, well, this is a bizarre offensive.
I've read that Putin looks like he's aged 10 years in the last year or so, and people speculating he has cancer. This offensive seems poorly timed, rushed, and foolish. Like a dying autocrat's last stab.
boutique models :) Also if you will check news carefully, they don't really sell anything to anybody
>but surely they have approximations of JDAM-type munitions, certainly laser guided bombs?
probably have some limited quantity. Like 1/10th of what Israel has, in best case. They simply do not have tech or manufacturing capability to mass produce stuff. Most of things is for show. Navigators on their strategic bombers use scale ruler (there was on russian news segment about military greatness of TU160 and they by accident showed it)
This is an important consideration. Already, EU is not reluctant to pour weapons into the region.
Putin seems to have galvanized the rest of Europe against him. I doubt that's what he wanted.
Also Finland gave permission for Germany to supply some cannons to Ukraine, and Finnish news said we also donate 2000 combat helmets and vests and two field hospitals.
5000 AT4 and some other stuff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT4
Unfortunately no NLAWS. =(
edit: source (in swedish): https://www.dn.se/sverige/sverige-skickar-militart-stod-till...
I, for one, have a hard time believing the 4k Russian casualties claimed by Ukraine.
One of the tricks of an army besieging something is to constantly attack and not let the defenders rest. I would say with good internet intelligence and a very motivated and armed populace, insurgency could do the opposite to the russians here: deny them sleep, deny them warmth, and destroy their ability to fight.
That's not just "bad morale": bad morale is a rational influence on conscious thought. With enough sleep deprivation there is no military discipline, no will to fight or follow orders.
If you are a defender with the back against the wall, that can strangely motivate you. If you're a Russian young adult freezing in the cold and pissed off over an obviously frivolous war, it makes for despair.
If the Ukraine and NATO were smart, they'd setup and advertise a POW camp in Greece on the beach. Surrender? We're sending you to a vacation.
Ukraine is a weird situation. They are RIGHT NEXT DOOR to the EU. This isn't like supplying Afghanistan rebels from 4000 miles away. Russia has no idea what resources will be supplied from the EU, what capabilities will be granted on any given day.
When will the US start providing drones? Will the US supply a huge drone fleet remotely operated from the US, and conduct night bombing operations when it is daytime in the US? Then just hand off daytime operations to the EU?
If the US/EU do that with sufficient numbers of drones, then conventional air superiority (my fighters are unthreatened) doesn't protect the ground troops, and the ground troops are toast.
Even if Russia capture population centers, it will not stop the currently increasing number of sanctions.
Neither will installing a puppet regime, that will be seen as almost worse than an invasion.
There will never be any participation in sports as long as this invasion stands, nor will there be any travel abroad for the common Russian citizen.
It's very hard to see what Putin can do to escape this situation, except withdraw from Ukraine.
This will not be the legacy that Putin hoped for.
This has already failed previously. No doubt it will not hold now, after the invasion.
I wonder if Putin knows he's terminally ill and is just burning it all down because he's a madman.
Brain tumor? Pancreatic cancer? (Why not both?)
This is going to lead to excessive costs and crippling of the economy, especially with the sanctions.
The televised drama about Putin ordering special alert for nuclear facilities is a signal that he is getting desperate.
Either he was misled by yes men (most likely) or given false hopes by in-competent generals (also likely) or both.
With present successes, it is not sufficient to only have more troops on ground. An urban insurgency will bleed Russia for years.
When the people, lead by a charismatic leader showing extraordinary courage and resolve taste the motivation and identify Putin as aggressor, the war will be fought with will power. And already, Putin has come out weak when compared to Zelensky.
History will remember the hero who stood up to the tyranny of Putin and his legacy is forever tarnished.
Not a good closing chapter, Putin.