Better not tell him about Estonia, Latvia, or Finland.

> The goal is to topple Ukraine's leadership and install a puppet who will be more aligned with

So like the western-backed Euromaidan basically (without Victoria Nuland handing out cookies in Maidan square).

I don't recall western missiles bombing Kyiv to support Euromaidan or invading tank columns to overthrow Yanukovych.

Ukrainians are the only ones who have the moral right to choose what they will be aligned with. Perhaps you can coach them or bribe them with trade (or lack of trade), but a violent invasion is absolutely not like that, it's not even comparable to what happened during Euromaidan.

This is correct. Putin has seen Ukraine turn more and more westward. Flirting and thinking about joining the EU and NATO. Which would mean "NATO" (US) troops right over the board and mere hours away form Moscow. Simply unacceptable to Putin.

I'm pretty sure if Ukraine survives this, they will be NATO members quickly.

Only if Ukraine somehow also quickly recovers the territory it lost in 2014. NATO requires that new members have zero disputed territories before they join because territorial disputes could immediately force NATO to intervene.

Exceptions will be made. This situation was created by this rule and inflexible administration.

Ukraine also has a Nazi problem. Putin used it as a pretext for this war inside Russia, but outside of wartime, folks in Berlin and DC consider it a real problem for closer alliance too.

Ukraine also has a corruption problem.

I think NATO will keep Ukraine on the cusp for 20 years like they did with Romania, before they allow them to join.

You could say that about the US, too.

Aren't there NATO countries right next to Ukraine that are just as close to Moscow already? Having Ukraine join NATO would be a bitter pill to swallow, perhaps, but it wouldn't bring NATO any closer than it is today.

And madman though Putin may seem to be, he knows NATO isn't an offensive organization.

363 miles from Latvia to Moscow, 280 miles from Ukraine to Moscow. I'm not sure if I would call Latvia "right next to Ukraine", since it doesn't border Ukraine.

Maybe in Europe that feels like a meaningful difference, but to me, 80 miles is nothing. Belarus is the odd one out. Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, all NATO members. Having Ukraine becoming a NATO member would not present a meaningful strategic change, it's 100% just a personal thing.

Not as close to Moscow, no. They're closer to St. Petersburg, though.

And I'm going to judge Putin by his own words. He says he's threatened by NATO on his borders? Then he shouldn't have 70% of his military on the border of Ukraine. It leaves him wide open to an invasion from NATO members Estonia and Latvia.

> And madman though Putin may seem to be, he knows NATO isn't an offensive organization.

I think he may legit see it that way: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOkl2XgZlw0

> And madman though Putin may seem to be, he knows NATO isn't an offensive organization

Sure, like the defensive bombing of Libya by NATO.