"Civil war". It has always been a Russian proxy war

My point wasn't how similar or different these conflicts are, I hope it didn't come off that way as I don't wish to start such a debate, the result is people suffering needlessly either way. But my last sentence with regards to war lurking may have been off-base if that's your point.

I just meant to point out, using my family's experience and in response to GP's girlfriend's "out of nowhere" comment, how easy it is to not recognize the seriousness of a conflict as it is starting and even as it's been ongoing for years.

> This is more like when the US attacked Libya and it was over in two weeks.

If by over you mean becoming a failed state and years of subsequent civil war then yes.

Putin will face a similar problem in Ukraine, he can punish it but he won’t be able to hold it because the population absolutely hates Russia’s guts.

Putin won't care, he will most likely install a regime of Ukraine nationals. As Putin talks of nazis and the need to "purge": this time less like Yanukovitch, more like the brutal Chechen Kadyrow. very depressing

I don’t see Putin being able to build the organs of a pro-Russian state in Ukraine, even a repressive one. The population is far too hostile to the idea, and too militarized.

In my opinion the more likely outcome if Putin doesn’t stop is Syria: total collapse, the civilian population flees and only militants remain.