My parents knew that war started that morning but they were really cheap faucets. Wouldn’t want to miss the opportunity.
However, what is happening now is very different. This is more like when the US attacked Libya and it was over in two weeks.
I just meant to point out, using my family's experience and in response to GP's girlfriend's "out of nowhere" comment, how easy it is to not recognize the seriousness of a conflict as it is starting and even as it's been ongoing for years.
If by over you mean becoming a failed state and years of subsequent civil war then yes.
Putin will face a similar problem in Ukraine, he can punish it but he won’t be able to hold it because the population absolutely hates Russia’s guts.
In my opinion the more likely outcome if Putin doesn’t stop is Syria: total collapse, the civilian population flees and only militants remain.
People underestimate how quickly a tense situation can turn to horror. My mother told me people in ex-Yugoslavia were going to their cabin to wait for it to blow over at the dawn of war. Even while it's going strong they underestimate just how bad it is; for instance in the middle of it (like 3 years in) you keep thinking it's gonna pass sooner rather then later. Then there was a bit of a lull and people thought it was over, life coming back to normalcy - hence why we hadn't fled yet, and why I was born in that period. Before you know it, it gets worst then it's ever been, literal hell on Earth and you're trapped for it, with army and blockades at every exit restricting movement and catching deserters. We were lucky to be in a region where it was possible for my mom, my brother and myself to get out (pretending you're going next town and some bribe money, but you obviously can't pack your things and show blockaders that you're getting the fuck out) and reach an embassy to seek asylum (unlike poor souls who were stuck in hell holes like Sarajevo or god forbid Srebrenica). If you're a man it's even harder as you're a deserter in some warlord's conflict, my dad couldn't have escaped his nth drafting without savvy trickery, and we know for a fact he wouldn't have made it out alive if we didn't turn on a dime and bail.
Obviously not the same situation, but if people in ex-Yugoslavia were able to justify sticking to it for years, expecting it to blow over and not see how the whole situation was a powder keg, it shows how easy it is to miss war turning for the worst, let alone when it's lurking over the corner.