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Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by avazhi on Thursday February 24, 2022 @02:35PM (#30459189)
America will do nothing except 'strongly condemn' what's happening, just like the rest of the world. The simple fact is that there is no real upside to risking actual war with Russia - that the Russians will dominate the Ukraine while walking away with a bloody nose (in the form of minor troop losses of its own) is a foregone conclusion. Without more, that's a localised conflict that Russia rather hilariously can try to claim the moral high ground about (NATO encroachment, historical alliances, American instability and foreign meddling), but if America or indeed any of the other nuclear powers gets involved, the risks increase massively very quickly. If two nuclear powers went at it properly here - I don't care which two - we enter into long-tailed territory and it's something we've simply never seen. There's absolutely no chance America or the UK risk that - they can get their wheat from somewhere else.

On the one hand, I feel bad for Ukrainians. On the other hand, the whole world saw it coming, just like we can see China invading Taiwan at some point in the future, and the calculus will be the exact same: Taiwan means more to China than it does to America, and the Ukraine means more to Russia than it does to the West.

It is perilous to fight somebody, whether it's Putin or Xi, with vested emotional interests in the subject matter of the fight when all you've got is ideology.

And so nothing will come of this except 'strong condemnations'. As if any strongman ever gave a fuck.

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by ethbr0 on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:24PM (#30459788)
> China invading Taiwan at some point in the future

And that's the perspective this should be viewed from.

The US may not have a firm interest in Ukraine. The US has a fairly firm interest in Taiwan. The US has a serious interest in Korea, Japan, and the countries bordering the South China Sea.

You have to strongly and unconditionally support international order re: Ukraine, so that Xi takes away the right message.

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by newuser94303 on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:45PM (#30460046)
I think the stronger message is that the US is trying to move chip manufacturing to the US so it will not care about Taiwan.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by rmk on Thursday February 24, 2022 @06:21PM (#30461716)
After decades of cheerfully deindustrializing and giving up the source of ordinary people's prosperity, the US is waking up to the stupidity of doing this. It's very visible in the chip industry because it's very visibly dominated by just a couple of firms and because a large range of seemingly simple things can not function without sophisticated integrated circuits.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by selfhoster11 on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:58PM (#30460191)
Alternative interpretation: they are trying to undo the total idiocy that was putting all your microchip eggs in one basket. It doesn't matter how cost-effective it is to centralise production, if the result is that the production capability for the single thing we need the most to continue our lifestyle (high-performance integrated circuits), is in peril from a natural/man-made disaster occuring in a small geographical area.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by throw10920 on Thursday February 24, 2022 @06:11PM (#30461622)
> The US has a fairly firm interest in Taiwan.

Why only "fairly firm"? I've heard arguments that if Taiwan is invaded and TSMC falls under PRC control, then the US faces massive chip shortages for years (possibly leading to riots and a destabilized government), and those seem plausible to me.

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by ethbr0 on Thursday February 24, 2022 @06:47PM (#30461960)
Because previous process nodes are alternatives. The world doesn't stop. It just stops getting better, and there's a lot of pain as supply chains readjust to available capacity and retarget parts.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by throw10920 on Friday February 25, 2022 @05:27PM (#30473117)
Previous process nodes are alternatives, but it takes months to years to redesign and manufacture devices using available parts. What if the new car supply (because cars have a crazy number of processors in them) suddenly dropped to 5% of current rates? What if you weren't able to purchase a new computer (or any parts - DRAM, GPUs, motherboards) for five years? What about appliances - if your microwave breaks, and you can only buy a used one for 4x the new price, what do you do?
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by rmk on Thursday February 24, 2022 @10:46PM (#30463500)
It is my understanding that TSMC has made arrangements to scuttle their facilities in this eventuality, denying invaders the technology.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by smegger001 on Thursday February 24, 2022 @06:26PM (#30461764)
a chip shortage means i keep my current cellphone for a few more years, and make do with older computer and new cars won't have a shitty infotainment system, or an ARM SoC in some gadget that doesn't need to be smart. not something that causes me to riot.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by throw10920 on Friday February 25, 2022 @05:29PM (#30473134)
What if there were no new cars, TVs, or phones made for five years? That would cause rioting - and that's pretty close to what scenario we would actually have, because it would take years to design and manufacture these very complex devices without any parts at all from TSMC.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by oezi on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:04PM (#30459543)
The question obviously is if Ukraine compares to Hitler taking Austria or part of Czechoslovakia and condemnation is just appeasement until an assault on the next country...
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by pkaye on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:00PM (#30459488)
> America will do nothing except 'strongly condemn' what's happening, just like the rest of the world.

People don't want a 'world police' anymore.

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by ethbr0 on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:19PM (#30459738)
Then they're going to have to remember what a world without police looks like.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by avazhi on Thursday February 24, 2022 @09:51PM (#30463210)
I wasn't intending to suggest that America or anybody else should take action or 'police' anything, but I do find the 'all bark, no bite mentality' currently being paraded about by the world's leadership to be, at best, disingenuous and at worst cowardly.

I suppose somebody might ask what I would prefer the US State Department say, and I guess I'd personally want more realpolitik: "Putin's a megalomaniacal piece of shit with nationalist historical aspirations that stretch back to Peter the Great; NATO's contributed to all this to the extent that it's been dick swinging in Eastern Europe for the past 20 years; the Ukrainians should probably just surrender since they're all basically (and historically were) Russian anyway, and they stand no chance of actually resisting, and no other country on Earth is going to risk nuclear war over them."

Not exactly feel good material for a bolded NYT headline, but at least it's honest.

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by bayesian_horse on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:15PM (#30459679)
The sanctions are extremely tough and not entirely painless for the US and other western countries.

Also the US has delivered weapons to Ukraine.

They don't want to engage in a war with Russia, and that decision I think is the right one for now. A couple years down the road, if the sanctions don't succeed in containing Putin's aggression, we might have a different discussion.

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by markvdb on Thursday February 24, 2022 @06:53PM (#30462015)
Putin is going on seventy already. A couple years down the road, with some luck he'll be six foot under.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by smegger001 on Thursday February 24, 2022 @06:33PM (#30461824)
>A couple years down the road, if the sanctions don't succeed in containing Putin's aggression, we might have a different discussion.

Yeah well we tried that back in 2014 when it was the Crimean Penensula. I think its time we have that discussion NOW.

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by bayesian_horse on Friday February 25, 2022 @06:01AM (#30465929)
Any direct confrontation with Russia may go nuclear. The NATO doctrine understandably requires a direct attack on a NATO member to run that risk.

In my opinion, Russia will not have a lot of appetite for further aggression after all those sanctions. Invading NATO members and setting off a huge, unwinnable conflict should be pretty far down the list of priorities in the next few years.

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by flyinglizard on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:14PM (#30459676)
“People” don’t want their regular neighborhood police either, but take it away and people start appreciating it.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by m0llusk on Thursday February 24, 2022 @07:39PM (#30462366)
The defund the police rhetoric caused politicians in my city to poll the populace and it was found that 85% wanted more police.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by rad_gruchalski on Thursday February 24, 2022 @06:25PM (#30461754)
Maybe a better way to phrase it is “people don’t remember why it was good to have world police”.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by vanviegen on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:18PM (#30459722)
What people are you talking about exactly? Those in Ukraine?
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by powersnail on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:50PM (#30460102)
Ukraine hasn't requested any foreign military aid so far.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by vanviegen on Thursday February 24, 2022 @04:03PM (#30460244)
Of course they have, privately, all the while knowing they were never going to get it.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by powersnail on Thursday February 24, 2022 @04:12PM (#30460355)
“Of course” according to what?
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by rmk on Thursday February 24, 2022 @04:42PM (#30460715)
Of course according to the repeated pronouncements of everyone ranging from their President to Foreign Minister to Defense Minister to the ambassadors.

See this report for a brief example: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN07...

The US and UK governments have been formally and repeatedly asked for help.

This information is also constantly in the news. The US has provided almost $3 Billion in military aid to Ukraine in the past several years alone. The UK has also provided significant amounts of aid. Ditto for NATO. All of these are not 'forced' on Ukraine!

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by powersnail on Thursday February 24, 2022 @06:05PM (#30461580)
My bad. I've not followed the situation closely enough to see these information before. Thanks for the enlightenment.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by nine_k on Thursday February 24, 2022 @02:51PM (#30459379)
I hope that beside strong condemnations, the US will also help with money (wars are expensive!) and stuff useful at war, from medical supplies to maybe weapons like Stingers and Javelins.

I also hope that the US will share intelligence information; US's abilities here are far greater than Ukraine's.

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by maccolgan on Thursday February 24, 2022 @07:48PM (#30462417)
The time for the US to stop acting as the world police has gone, why does the US need to intervene in a former buffer state ~10000 km away? NATO will presumably step in when the threat comes close enough.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by jjtheblunt on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:01PM (#30459498)
I wonder how resolve would shift if Putin were to come down with a case of polonium poisoning, or other tricks from his own repertoire?
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by avidiax on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:53PM (#30460130)
That would be a pretty terrible escalation in the spy game. There is an uneasy balance where government officials and their families are off limits for any physical harm. That means that CIA officials can live relatively peaceful lives just as FSB agents do.

If you let that genie out of the bottle, it better be a prelude to a winnable war, or you had better be happy to have all your government officials, diplomats, and their families on permanent lockdown.

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by bayesian_horse on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:18PM (#30459715)
Some would blame it on the CIA. The more likely perpetrator would always be someone in Russia trying to replace Putin.

Assassinating or targeting political leaders is a war crime. The CIA might have done that - quite a while in the past, mind you - but never against an adversary like Russia. At the very least you would expect a few US politicians to drop dead if there ever were such an attempt.

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by rmk on Thursday February 24, 2022 @03:09PM (#30459620)
I do not think the US does political assassinations (I may be utterly wrong here, if so, please post examples!) It does use assassinations against terrorists or quasi-political figures such as Qasem Soleimani, but I doubt that eliminating Putin is even being contemplated here.
Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by markvdb on Thursday February 24, 2022 @07:29PM (#30462290)
Fidel Castro is an obvious example. There were at least 638 (!) failed CIA political assination attempts against him. [0]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_attempts_on_Fide...

Re:Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces by rmk on Friday February 25, 2022 @01:26AM (#30464242)
Lol. Taking out mob hits on Castro, that's just epic!

I totally forgot the "Communist Stooges" category that America had a special loathing for. I'm sure they were a no-holds-barred category!