Re:Officials: LA-SF high-speed rail cost will increase to $105B
by ecshafer on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @09:41PM
(#30268035)
The amount of money that goes to graft and consultants and "assessments" on these projects is insane. Even when you account for higher land and labor prices it shouldn't be this much. US has eminent domain, US has domestic technology, there's just no reason that its $105B when China would have built 10x this much rail in the 15 years since prop 1a was passed for that cost. 1300 km for the proposed final length, means it would have cost about $26B in China[1] at $20M/km, and it would have already been built.
Re:Officials: LA-SF high-speed rail cost will increase to $105B
by wahern on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @10:00PM
(#30268191)
> means it would have cost about $26B in China[1] at $20M/km, and it would have already been built.
CAHSR budget costs are quoted in year-of-expenditure (YoE) dollars, assuming 3% yearly inflation. The $105 billion figure is for phase 1, which is scheduled for completion in 2040. Some of the most costly portions, such as crossing the mountains and building through developed areas, are scheduled for after 2030. So a sizable portion of that $105 billion figure is simply an artifact of monetary inflation.
IOW, a large part of the cost increase is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we were to simply commit and build things out as quickly as possible--as China does--a large part of it could be avoided. OTOH, that comes with its own problems. And of course many people assume the whole thing is hopelessly beset with corruption, so the project is damned if it does, damned if it doesn't.
One glimmer of hope: according to the report it seems that their reforms (including changes in leadership) at streamlining right-of-way acquisition have seen some success:
> The results of these changes have been outstanding. Parcel acquisitions are being completed on a steadier pace each month. The division is now delivering parcels ahead of the revised schedule. As of this writing, 2,067 parcels have been delivered to the construction contractors. For the frst time in the program’s history, we have met the 90% threshold for number of parcels delivered versus total needed.
Also, environmental review for most of the phase 1 route, SF to LA, should be completed this year:
> Today, we have environmentally cleared approximately 300 miles, and by July 2022 the Authority is intending to have cleared some 430 miles of the 500-mile Phase 1 system. Achieving these milestones is an essential step in the Authority’s strategy to advance the entire statewide program and be competitive for new federal funding opportunities, further described below.
Re:Officials: LA-SF high-speed rail cost will increase to $105B
by ren_engineer on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @09:48PM
(#30268101)
>The increases are partly due to commitments aimed at minimizing community disruption, such as distancing the train from the Cesar E. Chavez National Monument in the Central Valley and tunneling tracks near the Burbank airport, project officials said
that's pretty much the difference right there. China would go straight through the neighborhood and force people to move. Plus they wouldn't take years to do potential environmental impact studies
Re:Officials: LA-SF high-speed rail cost will increase to $105B
by m463 on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @10:40PM
(#30268489)
Eminent domain in the US can remove stuff.
But I can't figure out how things actually work in china.
It seems they have some people fighting back - do a web search for "chinese nail house" and you'll see some interesting houses existing amidst huge infrastructure projects
Re:Officials: LA-SF high-speed rail cost will increase to $105B
by _tom_ on Wednesday February 09, 2022 @01:58AM
(#30269776)
This project will bankrupt the state, if it continues. We have lost the ability to control costs on major infrastructure projects. The only question on the cost is how many time the original cost it will be.
Re:Officials: LA-SF high-speed rail cost will increase to $105B
by thehappypm on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @11:03PM
(#30268661)
These two cities have a combined metro population in the realm of ~30M. At $100,000M this will cost ~$30,000 per person. That’s enough money to buy every man, woman, and child hundreds of flights.
Re:Officials: LA-SF high-speed rail cost will increase to $105B
by exabrial on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @09:57PM
(#30268164)
This project needs to end. Millions have been spent, nothing has been built, and it's all somehow been funneled into pockets of people that are friends with the Pelosis.
[1]https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/07/10/c...
CAHSR budget costs are quoted in year-of-expenditure (YoE) dollars, assuming 3% yearly inflation. The $105 billion figure is for phase 1, which is scheduled for completion in 2040. Some of the most costly portions, such as crossing the mountains and building through developed areas, are scheduled for after 2030. So a sizable portion of that $105 billion figure is simply an artifact of monetary inflation.
IOW, a large part of the cost increase is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we were to simply commit and build things out as quickly as possible--as China does--a large part of it could be avoided. OTOH, that comes with its own problems. And of course many people assume the whole thing is hopelessly beset with corruption, so the project is damned if it does, damned if it doesn't.
One glimmer of hope: according to the report it seems that their reforms (including changes in leadership) at streamlining right-of-way acquisition have seen some success:
> The results of these changes have been outstanding. Parcel acquisitions are being completed on a steadier pace each month. The division is now delivering parcels ahead of the revised schedule. As of this writing, 2,067 parcels have been delivered to the construction contractors. For the frst time in the program’s history, we have met the 90% threshold for number of parcels delivered versus total needed.
Also, environmental review for most of the phase 1 route, SF to LA, should be completed this year:
> Today, we have environmentally cleared approximately 300 miles, and by July 2022 the Authority is intending to have cleared some 430 miles of the 500-mile Phase 1 system. Achieving these milestones is an essential step in the Authority’s strategy to advance the entire statewide program and be competitive for new federal funding opportunities, further described below.
that's pretty much the difference right there. China would go straight through the neighborhood and force people to move. Plus they wouldn't take years to do potential environmental impact studies
But I can't figure out how things actually work in china.
It seems they have some people fighting back - do a web search for "chinese nail house" and you'll see some interesting houses existing amidst huge infrastructure projects
Just don’t keep throwing money at this
And we are clearly not near done with the escalations.
Er,
Hyperloop!
I second the "dedicated road lane with busses". Well, that probably won't be 180mph or whatever.
The US idea of "high speed" rail is underwhelming anyway.
There is the Fresno trench. https://goo.gl/maps/5WGQ4xL3JbFEUn7z8
San Joaquin River Viaduct & Pergola https://goo.gl/maps/n6abmFNpaKsgCz1K8
Avenue 8 Overpass, you can drive on it. https://goo.gl/maps/DjMrzjUDjWEM5uJe8
Some sort of drainage ditch overpasses? https://goo.gl/maps/b72P1EJ7yuDYZWmg7 https://goo.gl/maps/uK2YaCe58M9iJQB3A
Avenue 12 Grade Separation https://goo.gl/maps/ztZQheYPnVhkFSWf8
Fresno River Viaduct https://goo.gl/maps/UzzLz7sXqfx7saq2A
Road 27 Grade Separation https://goo.gl/maps/ePVwuve6wKiikUwJA
South Avenue Grade Separation, before https://goo.gl/maps/DuLS1rT1HBQtLcCx6
South Avenue Grade Separation, after https://goo.gl/maps/kw8ugCY2h75htiYQ8
Conejo Viaduct https://www.buildhsr.com/gallery/photos/_2021-10-28_conejo_d...
State Route 43 Tied Arch Bridge https://goo.gl/maps/5ZmoACLW3n6mG8Y3A
Wide Shot https://goo.gl/maps/efgyXHeUprddCjBU9