The credit card company may elect to side with the merchant, or the merchant may decline to do business with you again in the future (not ideal if your income relies on access to these tools in the future), or the merchant may take legal action against you, or the credit card company may decide to close your card account.
You can't just do whatever you want and then claim 'chargeback!'
I don’t believe in using dark patterns as a retainment strategy, so I make it very easy to cancel from the same screen they signed up on. The domain is listed on their CC statement. I also send out reminders well before annual subscriptions renew with a link to update or cancel their plan.
I used to dispute chargebacks when the user was very clearly using the service actively and provide screenshots, logs, and written evidence, but what usually happens is the bank takes 30+ days to complete each interaction and almost always sides with the cardholder anyways. In the meantime, users get frustrated because their money is locked up in limbo and I can’t even refund them until their bank responds.
The only chargeback I recall “winning” was one where the user accidentally canceled but still wanted the service. They called their bank directly and the bank canceled the chargeback.
It’s just not worth the hassle, so immediately offloading the responsibility of chargebacks to the user is well worth the $15 chargeback fee. They’ll let you know if they want to come back.
Big companies, I’ve heard, may put you on a block list and if you’ve submitted any identifiable info (address, phone number, etc.) they’ll know when you create a new account.
Closing your card doesn't have any impact on legal obligations you had, or a merchant thinks you had, or any impact on whether a merchant will choose to do business with you in the future.
In terms of merchant choosing to do business with you in the future, they may or may not have a choice; depends what they use to identify you with. Certainly, if they don't make canceling easy, it's probably not the kind of business you want to deal with.
All that said, this is why anything that auto-renews, that I don't know if I want to keep renewing (i.e., will I still be using it at the end of the trial period, end of the month, end of the year), I immediately cancel. If it's a trial and that terminates access, I will take that as a sign not to use them. If it's paid and that terminates access, I will also take that as a sign not to use them, but I'll also email them and basically say "hey; I paid for X period, wish to use it for X period, but am unable to use the service for X period. I either need you to reinstate my account, sans auto-renewal, or I expect a refund". That tends to get a response, since otherwise -they- are legally on the hook.
Near it the price information carries the monthly price only, with no indication that you are signing up to 12 times that amount.
The only saving feature is that you don't need to read dozens of pages. If you open the contract, it is confusing from page 1. But it's also not clear at all what is going there.
This will invariably lead to a terminated account and a bunch of declined emails , but thats as far as it goes.