"In October 2021 alone, the increase was 356% over compared to October 2020. Not only do these dramatic increases represent retail product thefts – they include increased assaults and armed robberies of UP employees performing their duties move.

These individuals are generally caught and released back onto the streets in less than twenty-four hours... Even with all the arrests made, the no-cash bail policy and extended timeframe for suspects to appear in court is causing re-victimization to UP by these same criminals."

Agree - its early data collected and correlation does not equal causation but the bail reform proponents should be investigating if more if/else/case statements need to be added to the underlying bail-reform feature codebase to prevent site outages being reported by power end users.

I'm hopeful that they are.

See the other thread for more nuanced commentary - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29990457

Meanwhile, that same letter that spent 1/3 of a sentence mentioning bail talked about plea bargains for 2 paragraphs. I agree we have problems, but bail (or lack thereof) isn't the issue.

Zero bail for 30 felonies including auto theft

https://crimewatchmn.medium.com/hennepin-county-lifts-bail-r...

Auto theft a year later increases by over 500%

https://www.mprnews.org/amp/episode/2021/12/14/why-has-a-wav...

From reading news stories it’s the same people doing it. Mostly minors. I know correlation doesn’t equal causation, but it’s interesting here in a year period from those jail changes we see over a 5x increase in those crimes.

Bail-reform is probably a good feature worthy of keeping, just don't leave a potentially bug ridden implementation in production without a plan to fix it.

Also its for sure the same people running the backend operations. The front end people doing the stealing are somewhat interchange-able.

Its the backend APIs operating at scale that are the issue.

For example, regarding catalytic converter theft:

"This is a very significant step in stopping the widespread stealing of catalytic converters which have affected hundreds and hundreds of people in our county,"... 12 suspects are considered middlemen and thieves and the three other suspects worked at recycle businesses who knowingly purchased the stolen converters to sell... Green Metal Recycle... is suspected of possessing nearly $3,000,000 of stolen converters. "One of the officers said this is like a black market Costco and it really was," Rosen said. These businesses melt down the converters to get the precious metals inside- palladium, platinum and rhodium drive up the value.

$3M - that's a big number for inventory!

Further, your article about "mostly teen" offenders explains in great detail that that statistic should not be taken at face value. Since such a small percentage (10-15%) of carjackers are caught, there is a likely skew to younger, less sophisticated criminals.

Far from proving your point, you demonstrate crime is rising in the baseline, unchanged, crimes. Therefore, you raise the amount of crime needed for the cash bailless crimes to be attributable to that factor and not larger social changes.

Repeated lowered cash bail caused this guy to die.

This is only one example from Philadelphia, there are quite a few examples in the past two to three years, coinciding with Larry Krasner. He absolves himself of responsibility in this case, but ran on a platform very explicitly reducing cash bail to reduce incarceration rates on lower level crimes.

https://theappeal.org/the-successes-and-shortcomings-of-larr...

Here is an article fairly in favor of Krasner, and he is quoted on delivering these things.

Philadelphia hit a high score of 500+ shootings last year, and over 700 carjackings. We're already over 100 carjackings this month. There is plenty of blame to go around depending on who you ask, police, Biden, Krasner, COVID, the mayor, the economy.

One thing feels more true than others: if you are in jail, you cannot commit crimes. The costs to society and other people in the city looks very high right now. Krasner was just reelected, turnout was very low, and so we have another two years to see how it goes.

The sentiment among my neighbors on my block is: be careful going to your car at any time, don't be out alone late, use rideshare not public transit if you're a late night service worker. At least a quarter of them want to move in the next two years, split evenly between renters and owners. Can't remember that feeling in the past twenty years.

The problems with analysis like what you're doing is it just doesn't work. Like, suppose we locked up every person. Crime outside prisons would plummet! What if we made people wear GPS units at all time? Executed everyone who sped or worse!

What you have to show is that it made sense to deny him bail at the time.

Which article? On Josephus Davis? This was massive news in our city, Davis shot a dogwalker after robbing him.

The particulars on Mr. Davis:

He was released on reduced bail (300k->20k) for armed kidnapping the month before. He was also released after carjacking a rideshare driver the year before.

This is not a nice person.

>Like, suppose we locked up every person. Crime outside prisons would plummet! What if we made people wear GPS units at all time? Executed everyone who sped or worse!

Not sure why you're assuming I think this.

The purpose of showing this local story is that if there are not some kind of consequence to bad actors, things repeat themselves. Reform of cash bail appears to have side effects.