Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress

Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by systemvoltage on Saturday December 11, 2021 @10:57PM (#29526986)

They've been saying Moore's law is dead for 20+ years. Reasons usually quoted for Moore's law's death are quite narrowly focused on a particular technology stack, whereas semiconductor fabrication happens on a complex web of technologies all moving forward with their own S-curves.

It is worth watching Jim Keller's lecture at UC Berkeley literally titled "Moore's law is not dead". He talks on a different level alltogether and far more convincing than the pedantic look at the details that enable Moore's law.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIG9ztQw2Gc

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Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by dane-pgp on Sunday December 12, 2021 @12:03AM (#29527298)

> Reasons usually quoted for Moore's law's death are quite narrowly focused on a particular technology stack

To give just one example, here's a paper[0] from 2002 titled "End of Moore's law: thermal (noise) death of integration in micro and nano electronics" which claims "increasing thermal noise voltage (Johnson–Nyquist noise) ... has the potential to break abruptly Moore's law within 6–8 years, or earlier."

[0] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03759...

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Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by ksec on Sunday December 12, 2021 @06:19AM (#29528716)

And if you watch his later talk and interviews, his definition of "Moore's law" is basically transistor improvement. And not scaling anything with 2x.

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Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by natded on Sunday December 12, 2021 @01:28AM (#29527598)

Was about to come in and poast Keller, I see it's done, gj & have a nice day.

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