News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by 1cvmask on Monday November 29, 2021 @08:12PM (#29387569)
Isn't the vast majority of the true problems caused by not enough supply of all KINDS of NEW housing being built to accompany both massive population growth (including immigrants in some areas), massive wealth increase among the global rich (who can now own multiple empty properties in marquee cities), landlords eating up more of your income AND in the US case government rules and regulations creating a predatory medical system that consumes over 18 percent of GDP.

In the 70s a blue collar worker could buy a house and look after their family. Now we have massive asset price inflation due to low interest rates and not enough growth in housing assets. This can lead to future social unrest on a massive scale (not just occasional riots/protests).

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by nradov on Monday November 29, 2021 @08:17PM (#29387594)
There are many places in the US where a skilled blue collar worker can buy a house and look after a family. But HN users tend to have a distorted perspective since most of them live in the SF Bay Area and other expensive areas.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by YesThatTom2 on Monday November 29, 2021 @08:26PM (#29387653)
Where? Where in the US can someone live on blue collar salary and afford a mortgage?
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by samsolomon on Monday November 29, 2021 @09:00PM (#29387922)
Most small and mid-sized cities? I lived in Mobile, Alabama for a couple years. I rented an awesome 1,400 sq ft place with power, gas and water included for about $600/mo.

Looking at that same street on Zillow it looks like there are a few 3br 2ba homes for around $200,000.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by abernard1 on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @01:07AM (#29389435)
> Where? Where in the US can someone live on blue collar salary and afford a mortgage?

Most places that aren't deep blue cities. That seems like hyperbole but is true.

Picking just a few cities, the median house prices/sq footages are:

- Houston, TX: $238K, 2031 sq ft

- Indianapolis, Indiana: $196K, 1853 sq ft

- Oklahoma City, OK: $152K, 1455 sq ft

- Atlanta, GA: $399K, 1586 sq ft

Each one of these places has a cost of living (excluding real estate) less than 50% that of CA as a whole. All >1M size metros.

The most expensive, Atlanta, has a combined monthly payment inc taxes of $1700 a month on a 30-yr. That's $20,400 a year. Median plumber salary in Atlanta is $63K a year, so this would be 1/3rd their income.

Once again, that's median salary and salaries rise sharply at mid-career, and median home price.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by afpx on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:50PM (#29388740)
Most of the US, I'm guessing. There are 53 million people living out in rural areas. The vast majority aren't college educated.

People just live on a lower standard of living and get by with less. For example, my sister just bought a $28,000 3 bedroom house. It's a boring old company home, in a boring and uneducated area of the country. But, she has lived there all her life and enjoys the people and culture.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by throwaway803453 on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:05PM (#29388450)
One of the properties I own is in Reno which is a 4hr drive from SF. It's a 2br 1ba condo which Zillow estimates $207k. It's nice, fully remodeled. That would be $900 mortgage + $180 hoa + $50 taxes (?) = ~$1200/mo ?

Make $20/hour like most folks in this working class neighborhood do and you are all set. Get a roommate or a spouse that works part time if you can't earn $20/hr.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by jkaptur on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:13PM (#29388507)
Enviably close to Tahoe, too.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by b9a2cab5 on Monday November 29, 2021 @08:31PM (#29387695)
Plenty of places in the Midwest/South if you're a tradesman. Obviously a McDonald's worker or Starbucks barista is probably not going to be able to afford a mortgage.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by derbOac on Monday November 29, 2021 @08:40PM (#29387765)
I agree with you, speaking from experience with family. But I also see the spillover from the coasts as threatening this. The "wealthy refugees from the west coast" has become a real thing.

Maybe it's all about [over]population and age distributions.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by stefan_ on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:21PM (#29388558)
This is obvious because? We certainly have the wealth for it.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by b9a2cab5 on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @01:54AM (#29389661)
You are free to tip until they make whatever you consider a sufficient wage. "We" should start with "you".
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by piva00 on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @06:58AM (#29391208)
Tipping is the worst culture possible for work environments... Make someone's salary hostage to the whims of patrons, what a lovely way to live.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by throw0101a on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @07:42AM (#29391503)
Generally speaking, the US population is quite concentrated. 66% of people live with-in 100mi (160km) of a border:

* https://www.aclu.org/other/constitution-100-mile-border-zone

A sizeable portion live on the coast:

> As of 2014, nearly 40% of the population lived in counties on the coast.

* https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/population.html

So presumably there's a decent amount of space 'in the middle'.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Monday November 29, 2021 @09:39PM (#29388261)
Yes, there are many places like that. Alas, there's almost no overlap between those places and the most productive parts of the country.

GDP would be enormously increased, if eg more people could move to New York City or Silicon Valley.

See also https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/shut-o...

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by refurb on Monday November 29, 2021 @09:59PM (#29388411)
GDP would be increased if more people moved to NYC or the Bay Area? That's like saying if a company just hired more people they could make more money. It doesn't work like that.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by conjecTech on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:15PM (#29388518)
It's not just about the jobs. There are enormous economies of scale to living in cities. Distances travelled are shorter, stores do higher turnover(meaning fewer of them per capita), and multi-family housing is cheaper to heat & maintain to name a few. Urbanization is one of the most tested ways of making people richer.

The problem historically has been the distribution of that additional wealth. It's common to see cycles of increasing rent seeking, followed by de-urbanization/migration, and then a gradual return to cities.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by refurb on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:23PM (#29388573)
Not sure how "rich" people feel trading a single family home on a quarter acre for a 800 sq ft 2-bedroom house. I've lived in plenty of dense urban cities in developing countries and they live that way because they can't afford better, not because it's ideal.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:31PM (#29388635)
Yes, that's a trade-off that people have to decide for themselves.

Though if more and higher construction were legal, they could afford a bigger place in dense urban cities, too.

(Of course, the number of plots for single family houses is limited. But there's no limit to how big your apartments can be, if you are willing to stack them.)

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by Robotbeat on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:09PM (#29388482)
I mean it actually does. Concentration leads to much higher economic growth. Both in absolute terms and per capita.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by wholinator2 on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:24PM (#29388582)
Ive seen this stated a lot and I'd be interested in where this idea comes from/ where it's been validated. I don't know if there's studies or something like that but I think it'd be useful to the conversation to add how we know that. Thanks
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:31PM (#29388637)
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by refurb on Monday November 29, 2021 @11:18PM (#29388899)
Aren't most of the big tech companies in the Bay Area located in the suburbs?
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @09:54AM (#29392743)
Sort-of. If they legalised construction in the area, many of those suburbs would turn into cities.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by biomcgary on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:05PM (#29388449)
Or would GDP be increased more (and more evenly distributed, both geographically and demographically) if the jobs in NYC or SV were all required to be remote? Imagine if every small town in the country had HN types bringing money into the local economy instead of taking it out.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:27PM (#29388609)
No.

Increase in GDP means that someone is making more money. And you seldom have to _require_ anything to get people to make more money. Companies and workers already have the option to negotiate remote working arrangements. And had for a long time.

> Imagine if every small town in the country had HN types bringing money into the local economy instead of taking it out.

They'd just take it out to another 'local' economy. What makes some random spot more deserving than some other random spot?

And in any case, on a macro scale there's basically as much money in the national economy as the Fed wants there to be.

If there's some process that makes money magically vanish (eg perhaps those wacky foreigners selling you goods but then just burying the cash you pay them, instead of spending it), then the Fed will just issue more money to make up for the shortfall.

Similarly, if those foreigners dig the money back up, the Fed will just sell a few items off their balance sheet to soak up the extra money.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by Nevermark on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @03:04AM (#29389980)
You are responding to arguments about GDP with arguments about money supply.

Inflation adjusted GDP is a completely independent measure/concept/entity/quantity from money supply.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @09:56AM (#29392764)
Sorry, there were two strands of argument I was replying to. That might have gotten a bit confused.

The first was about real GDP, and natural incentives vs legal requirements.

The second was about money supply vs worrying about keeping money in the local economies.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by tonypace on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @08:48AM (#29392022)
Milton Friedman made a good career proving you wrong with his helicopter money. Dumping cash in human hands has real effects beyond increasing the price of everything.

(I agree that the parent comment is unconvincing.)

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by Nevermark on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @01:03PM (#29395281)
I think we are in agreement.

They are independent entities as measured state of an economy at single points in time. Money supply doesn't tell you what GDP is, or vice versa. Normalizing GDB for inflation is about removing even that connection.

But as far as the dynamics of an economy everything is related to everything. Changes happening to one spill into effects on the other, although as we both know, often not in a simple way.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by jollybean on Monday November 29, 2021 @11:45PM (#29389062)
"the most productive"

Productivity is really mostly a measure of value capture.

So when we say 'productive' we can just mean 'rich people in specific companies hoarding profits and income' and then assume that this is 'productive' by the more common definition.

The problem is that those areas may not quite be more 'productive' per say, but that there's a power imbalance.

I believe that actually they are more productive, but the White Collar workers are playing on a global scale, but the plumber can still only work on a local scale.

It probably would require a 'multi pronged' solution of tweaking taxes, services, building more homes, upping the interest rate, getting companies to spread out a bit etc..

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by nradov on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:27PM (#29388611)
No thanks. There's more to life than maximizing GDP. We don't need to cram ever increasing numbers of people into a couple of geographically constrained metropolitan areas.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:29PM (#29388624)
People have preferences and agency.

Those people who want to be crammed (in return for higher income) should be allowed to cram.

As a nice side-effect, that leaves more of the rest of the world free for non-crammers.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by inter_netuser on Monday November 29, 2021 @09:16PM (#29388043)
in the 70s, blue collar workers were not competing with 2 billion workers that were happy to 2 bucks an hour.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Monday November 29, 2021 @09:43PM (#29388295)
Back then those hungry masses would have been ecstatic about 2 bucks a day.

China and India (to take just the two biggest countries) have become massively more productive and massively richer since those bad old days. Thanks to their integration into the world economy, today blue collar workers can afford riches undreamt-of in the 1970s.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by Talanes on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:14PM (#29388512)
>today blue collar workers can afford riches undreamt-of in the 1970s.

All the luxury you could dream of, as long as you don't dream of a home or medical care.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Monday November 29, 2021 @10:21PM (#29388560)
Yes, but we know why these are screwed up. And it's not because of foreign workers.

For medical care: 1970s style medical care is basically outlawed today, and there's lots of regulation. Eg if you want to open a new hospital, the existing hospital in your area that you would compete with have veto rights, and use them. See eg https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/09/considerations-on-cost... or look for 'Certificate of Need' in https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/12/04/highlights-from-the-co...

For housing: see eg https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/shut-o...

Basically, building houses used to be legal in the 1970s. Now it's illegal in many parts of the US.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by pydry on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @05:30AM (#29390742)
They're screwed up because of wealth inequality and rent seeking.

Essentially they're screwed up because American union power was destroyed by oligarchs and blue collar workers subsequently lost political representation.

"Everything bad is caused by government regulations!" was a story told repeatedly in many different forms by lavishly funded Koch think tanks (mercatus, which you cited, being just one example) and filtered through other oligarch run mainstream media outlets.

It was inspiredly largely by their battles with their nemesis - the EPA in the 70s/80s and was largely successful at promoting the "overregulation = bad" meme amongst the American proletariat. This was subsequently leveraged by Koch-funded politicians to democratically strip EPA regulations on their behalf.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @09:53AM (#29392733)
> "Everything bad is caused by government regulations!"

Who said that? I mentioned two things that are bad because of regulations. But that doesn't mean that regulation is to blame for everything that's bad. Eg try as they may, regulation isn't what's keeping me from running 100m in 10s.

> Essentially they're screwed up because American union power was destroyed by oligarchs and blue collar workers subsequently lost political representation.

Huh? American auto union just got the fisc to pay them about four thousand dollars per electric car they make. I'm not sure how they lost political representation.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by pydry on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @12:07PM (#29394441)
>Who said that?

It's a common theme in the source you linked to which I gave the Koch backstory for.

>But that doesn't mean that regulation is to blame for everything that's bad.

Clearly not.

>Huh? American auto union just got the fisc to pay them about four thousand dollars per electric car they make.

The Build Back Better Act hasn't passed yet.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by throwaway0a5e on Monday November 29, 2021 @08:22PM (#29387621)
If housing were the problem you wouldn't see parallels in other countries that have vastly different housing landscapes.

Big societal problems don't have one simple solution because if they did they'd be solved and they wouldn't be big societal problems.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Monday November 29, 2021 @09:45PM (#29388307)
> If housing were the problem you wouldn't see parallels in other countries that have vastly different housing landscapes.

Well, have you looked at those other countries?

Housing become more expensive has been a fairly broad trend in many countries. Looking at specific examples (and looking at their other problems) is instructive, indeed.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by wahern on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @01:33AM (#29389555)
Housing price inflation is definitely a trend across many developed countries. But it's not universal, or at least uneven. I haven't researched data for this specifically, but a broader trend might be the bifurcation of labor into creatives and non-creatives (or some similar rough dichotomy), with the former seeing faster income growth than the latter. Such a phenomenon would readily explain housing price inflation while also being an obvious consequence of globalized labor markets depressing most strongly income growth for non-creatives.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @09:50AM (#29392699)
But labour markets aren't globalised. We have strong restrictions on migration all around the globe. Some goods and services are tradeable, but also with some legal restrictions.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by wahern on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @03:38PM (#29397162)
> Some goods and services are tradeable

Most goods are tradable, and for decades now manufacture of consumer goods relocates relatively quickly in search of low cost labor. This leaves a surplus of workers behind, suppressing wages in industries with low costs of entry--remaining manufacturing but especially non-professional services.

IOW, labor markets are strongly globalized from the perspective of capital. A little less so from the perspective of laborers, though their wages remain stagnant all the same, so in many ways it's a distinction without a difference.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Wednesday December 01, 2021 @06:55AM (#29402883)
Your logic would suggest that workers in tradable industries get paid less than those in non-tradeable goods and services, wouldn't it?

That's something we can look into.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by wahern on Wednesday December 01, 2021 @03:39PM (#29408858)
> Your logic would suggest that workers in tradable industries get paid less than those in non-tradeable goods and services, wouldn't it?

Not necessarily, as the laborers displaced by off-shoring are now competing in the labor pool for many other non-tradeable industries. That's what I meant when I said, "suppressing wages in industries with low costs of entry--remaining manufacturing but especially non-professional services." An increase in supply relative to demand usually will mean a lower clearing price (i.e. more people for fewer jobs usually means lower accepted wages).

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by abecedarius on Monday November 29, 2021 @08:52PM (#29387847)
> massive population growth

The U.S. population growth rate right now is easily the lowest it's ever been, except for the 1930s.

Agreed that housing and medical constriction are a big part of what's going on.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by varenc on Monday November 29, 2021 @09:27PM (#29388150)
Major cities are still experiencing a rate of population growth much higher than the national average.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by eru on Monday November 29, 2021 @09:40PM (#29388276)
Yes, though in a national context you'd probably call that migration, not population growth.

And it's a shame that it ain't larger: people migrating to more productive areas of the country is one way to increase the standard of living.

Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by pydry on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @06:18AM (#29390973)
Same thing that happened to Japan - population shrinkage combined with migration to the cities.
Re:Crises of Elite Competition in the East and West by abecedarius on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @02:04PM (#29396041)
I get the impression housing prices aren't a big deal there?