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Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by pvarangot on Thursday October 07, 2021 @08:39PM (#28794153)
I talked to several Tesla and former Tesla folks that will probably relocate because of this, and the say is that since Austin in less NIMBY than the Bay Area new housing will get built and prices will go down. It's a more complex bet than just "we move there because houses are affordable now".
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by oceanplexian on Thursday October 07, 2021 @10:13PM (#28794951)
It’s a no brainer, my company offered to let me move out of CA a few years ago.

My utilities are 50% cheaper and more reliable, crime is lower, the air quality is better, and I bought a new construction with 10G Fiber Internet (You will never get this in California due to failing infrastructure). I miss is the arts, culture, and nightlife, but that was wiped out by government-enacted COVID restrictions so there are few redeeming reasons to stay. Tesla should be a good lesson that when you put political idealism above the basic needs of your residents (Safety, infrastructure, housing), people leave.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by jdavis703 on Thursday October 07, 2021 @10:46PM (#28795159)
I don’t know where in CA you were… But here in Oakland I have the option for 10G fiber (albeit the landlord only wired my actual apartment for 1G ethernet, but the fiber is like 50 feet from my door). Utilities are extremely low… Far lower than I had to deal with winter and summers in the US South. And at least so far, this year air quality hasn’t yet entered in to the toxic level.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by bradknowles on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:25AM (#28795737)
In Austin, you’re lucky to get 1G anywhere. If Google Fiber has already laid down cable news provided service, then you will not be surprised to find that Spectrum and AT&T both are surprisingly competitive it’s each other.

Otherwise, you get what little you can get and you just have to be happy with DSL because it’s still better than what you can effectively get with Spectrum, since you’re sharing that with all your 500 closest neighbors and you still have to put up with outages and throttling and being treated like trash from the “cable guy” installers who wouldn’t understand concepts like bend radius if you broke their arm at the right distances and showed them how the glass fiber also breaks when it is bent too tightly.

Yes, this is an old pet peeve.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by post_from_work on Friday October 08, 2021 @01:50AM (#28796131)
>>>In Austin, you’re lucky to get 1G anywhere.

That's depressing, especially for a US "tech hub". I'm in an irrelevant-but-dense urban area of Japan and have 1G fiber @ <$40 / month.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by lotsofpulp on Friday October 08, 2021 @04:42AM (#28797045)
In the entire US, you are lucky to get fiber at all. Almost all people have a choice of only garbage asymmetric over subscribed coaxial cable with no other choice. A significant portion do not even have that. So few have fiber, that I disqualified 90%+ of the houses that came up in my searches when I was searching for a home.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by beowulfey on Thursday October 07, 2021 @11:49PM (#28795549)
People may be leaving but I don’t think it will start to change anything about CA anytime soon. It could lose 25% of its population and still have more than the next most populated state (TX). That’s ten million people—nearly the entirety of the LA metro area.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by kelnos on Thursday October 07, 2021 @11:33PM (#28795449)
> I miss is the arts, culture, and nightlife, but that was wiped out by government-enacted COVID restrictions so there are few redeeming reasons to stay.

Isn't that the case pretty much everywhere, though? These things will come back in CA just as they will everywhere else, barring catastrophic economic collapse.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by tayo42 on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:43AM (#28795821)
Its not even true, last weekend I went to a watercolor painting show featuring international artists. Been going out for dinner (not much of a drinker), the late night "downtown" area in my town is fully open. Tourists were back during summer. Activities are all back to normal. Concerts are going on, I went to one a couple weeks ago. There is one I really want to go to in the bay area too :( but no time.

Just clueless people on the internet that don't know what they're talking about. Probably because there is nothing else to do in texas besides be mad about things lol.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by iab on Friday October 08, 2021 @01:14AM (#28795973)
Every time I hear someone rail against California, I think of that scene in Mad Men when Don Draper tells Michael Ginsberg: "I don't think about you at all"
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by hunterb123 on Friday October 08, 2021 @10:58AM (#28800055)
You fantasize about a scene where you have a cool comeback when you overhear someone railing against a state you live in?

Then you think about it again and comment on a public forum about it. Yeah that's totally not caring at all.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by iab on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:20PM (#28801020)
This is a good example of what I am talking about ^
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by pvarangot on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:56PM (#28801369)
> new construction with 10G Fiber Internet (You will never get this in California due to failing infrastructure)

I've had 10g fiber in three places in San Francisco and almost moved to a house in Cupertino that had 10g fiber. Not sure about the rest of California honestly.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by api on Thursday October 07, 2021 @10:28PM (#28795053)
NIMBY housing cartels aren’t political idealism, and they are the main reason people are leaving.

Also I’m not sure the utilities are better in Texas. Cheaper, sure, but is that gas infrastructure winterized yet?

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by bradknowles on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:26AM (#28795739)
Nope. ERCOT a got told what they have to do, but then they got told what they had to do last time, too.

Nothing happened then, and I don’t expect anything to happen this time.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by unwiredben on Thursday October 07, 2021 @08:55PM (#28794310)
The east part of Austin where Tesla is located is still underpopulated compared to most of Travis county, so there's room for a lot of housing to be built out that way. Connectivity from there to central Austin isn't too bad, since that's the direction of the airport and Houston.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by pvarangot on Thursday October 07, 2021 @09:00PM (#28794366)
Yeah that's what they said! I am not saying it's not a sound bet, honestly I hope it goes well. The thing is that nothing indicates that the new housing built there will not be sold at prices that flatten the curve. Yeah supply and demand and all that, but there will be more demand and the real estate market is good a limiting itself to the supply that keeps the prices increasing just about right for them to make a quick buck selling to a captive audience.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by bradknowles on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:29AM (#28795755)
The curve is a cliff. Prices have already doubled and tripled at least once or twice, and that’s just within the last couple of years.

There’s no new inventory being built, and there won’t be a significant amount of new inventory built any time soon, because Texas is the most terrified state in the country of all the Mexicans coming across the border to take all the jobs.

They’ll spend billions of dollars to protect that border, but nothing to build new housing for people moving to the state.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by xbmcuser on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:28AM (#28795752)
Yeah but the house buyers will mostly be blue collar workers not making 150-200k a month is the prices won't go as high.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by more_corn on Thursday October 07, 2021 @11:02PM (#28795266)
That's funny. Yesterday on Marketplace there was a piece about the city of Austin trying to build a $300k low income home in an empty lot in a rich neighborhood. The neighbors freaked out and sued to stop it. It is now a half finished foundation buried in weeds. Sounds pretty NIMBY to me.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by etchalon on Thursday October 07, 2021 @08:47PM (#28794237)
I'm not sure why they think Austin is less NIMBY. That hasn't been my experience.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by handmodel on Thursday October 07, 2021 @09:08PM (#28794442)
It may be as NIMBY in some ways but the effects haven't kicked in yet (and probably won't given size, competition, and property tax laws). Look at the options available for a family making 80k in these two cities. They aren't even the same magnitude.

https://www.trulia.com/TX/Austin/

https://www.trulia.com/CA/Palo_Alto/

Texas also doesnt have prop 13 so it is unlikely to ever reach the levels of a California city

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by pvarangot on Thursday October 07, 2021 @09:15PM (#28794501)
That comparison is ridiculous, have you been to Palo Alto? It's a mansion neighborhood like Atherton. A better comparison would be with San Jose or San Mateo that are like, normal cities. Still way more expensive than Austin but it's nowhere near the price of Palo Alto or Atherton.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by exdsq on Friday October 08, 2021 @01:10AM (#28795953)
I live in Palo Alto and love zillowing random houses on my walk to Starbucks. Record for most expensive town house on a normal residential street is $19m. It’s insane.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by lotsofpulp on Friday October 08, 2021 @04:47AM (#28797078)
Zillow and Redfin and trulia estimated values are clickbait. Only look at recent sale prices and comp sales.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by handmodel on Friday October 08, 2021 @01:32AM (#28796048)
https://www.trulia.com/for_sale/San_Mateo,CA/

I think that's fair but the nonetheless the only houses on here in San Mateo for under 600k are about 600sq ft. Even 1200sqft homes are 1M+ Where do you think married mid-level engineers are going to live?

For 500k in Austin you can choose between brand new 1300 sqft homes or older 2500 sqft homes.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by bradknowles on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:30AM (#28795761)
You have to go well east of San Jose in order to find what I would call a “normal” city in the Bay Area.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by TulliusCicero on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:29AM (#28795756)
More conservative areas -- and Austin is more conservative than the bay area, even if it's relatively blue for Texas -- tend to at least allow building more housing outward, even if they don't allow building more densely in already-developed areas.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by ameister14 on Thursday October 07, 2021 @09:06PM (#28794419)
In 2019, San Francisco housing grew in total by 4,850 units, which was an increase of 81%! over 2018.

By comparison, Austin permitted 8600 multi-family units in 2018 alone. That doesn't include single family detached, which averages another 2800 a year.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by bradknowles on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:32AM (#28795767)
San Francisco != the whole of the Bay Area.

They’re right proper nutcase looney tunes in San Francisco, when it comes to new building. Almost as bad as they are here.

Well, that is unless you’re building high rises on the river for the millionaires and billionaires. Then you can build as many of those as you want.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by posguy on Thursday October 07, 2021 @08:49PM (#28794253)
Apple took this bet years ago, it has not panned out. Austin's housing and rental prices just keep increasing year after year.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by newaccount2021 on Thursday October 07, 2021 @09:53PM (#28794790)
? Apple's soon-to-be-second-largest office location is being built in Austin right now...apparently they haven't "given up" on Austin
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by 8note on Thursday October 07, 2021 @09:15PM (#28794498)
I'd assume that apple leadership buys all the land cheap and sells it for a heft profit to the peons.

Then, they can rinse and repeat at a new location.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by conductr on Thursday October 07, 2021 @11:19PM (#28795372)
Prices will only go down in Texas when people quit moving here because they think the RE is cheap. Construction never stops here and prices still go up.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by Robotbeat on Friday October 08, 2021 @01:29AM (#28796035)
Prices would go up a lot faster without more construction.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by bradknowles on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:19AM (#28795710)
I wonder what they’ll do during the next power outage that lasts several days?

Or is Tesla going to give each of them 25kw solar arrays plus three Powerwalls, and a backup natural gas generator for when the sun doesn’t come out in January or February and ERCOT decides they’re going to just go into rolling blackout mode because they are unable to sniff their own butts?

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by vmception on Thursday October 07, 2021 @08:54PM (#28794293)
I don't think we really need to localize this conversation as nowhere can economically manage a large exodus of people from California's 40,000,000 population.

The only thing to remember is that Californians can afford the new area's current housing prices and a decade's worth of price increases.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by TedDoesntTalk on Thursday October 07, 2021 @09:05PM (#28794405)
Influx of Californians raises the local housing prices because they can pay a lot more after selling in California. This has happened and continues to happen in metro Denver and Boise.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by vmception on Thursday October 07, 2021 @09:11PM (#28794468)
Yes, correct. Or just having already budgeted for the existing rental prices, or have savings from when their annual compensation was high whether they get to keep that compensation or not in the new place.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by muzz on Thursday October 07, 2021 @10:08PM (#28794912)
There is no "large exodus" of people moving out of California.

The number of people moving from San Francisco to Austin in a year is something like 240 households. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/People-are-leavi...

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by rcpt on Thursday October 07, 2021 @10:34PM (#28795093)
California has exploded to the world's 5th largest economy. Surpassing even the UK.

Zero growth isn't the right baseline. The fact that the population hasn't boomed means something is definitely wrong.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by roenxi on Friday October 08, 2021 @03:08AM (#28796521)
It doesn't necessarily mean that something is wrong. It might, ironically, mean the state is just slightly hostile to outsiders.

Nothing to fault them for if they want to be wealthy and exclusive.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by BuyMyBitcoins on Thursday October 07, 2021 @11:41PM (#28795494)
I simply don’t believe SFChronicle here. I live in Texas and I see plenty of California plates on the road. The realtor I work with says Californians are flooding the market with cash. They’re offering 10’s of thousands of dollars over asking price and winning out over local offers.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by bradknowles on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:35AM (#28795790)
I suspect that maybe not many are coming from San Francisco itself, which is only a tiny part of the Bay Area. And maybe not that many are coming from the greater Bay Area. Maybe they’re coming from other parts of California that also has very high cost of housing, like LA.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by muzz on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:13PM (#28800914)
There's no evidence of this either. The contra-evidence is: https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CalEx...
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by bsagdiyev on Friday October 08, 2021 @07:29AM (#28798019)
Agreed. Even in North Carolina I’ve been seeing quite a few CA plates. After we moved in to our neighborhood I noticed another 5/6 parked in different driveways when out on walks. Driving to Cary you see tons of them on the road. People are definitely leaving in a significant number.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by muzz on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:11PM (#28800875)
The data is from the USPS. Sorry if it doesn't match some anecdotes
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by BuyMyBitcoins on Friday October 08, 2021 @06:05PM (#28804672)
Not matching the anecdotes leads me to believe the analysis is probably lacking something.

“The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right.” -Jeff Bezos

Being data driven is not necessarily a bad thing, but the design of the study, the kinds of data collected, and all the other factors that go into how the data is measured need to be considered too.

This article about there being no “Californian Exodus” just doesn’t seem true, much in the same way I discount all those reports that say something along the line of “No, crime is actually down in the Bay Area”. Despite people living there saying it’s gotten way worse. The answer probably lies in changing what gets counted as “a crime”, coupled with police not responding to things they used to report, and citizens feeling like it is futile to call the police. But the data would paint the picture that crime is objectively down. But when you apply some other analysis you can see the conclusion is flawed.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by vmception on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:32PM (#28801154)
USPS isnt the canonical whole picture either though, have you talked to actual humans in your physical friend group to extrapolate what others did last year?

Many people moved their nexus to their parents house while physically going elsewhere with the uncertainty. USPS data has no way of accounting for that if the physical human being did not tell USPS to forward mail to where they physically were.

Anecdotes are a signal to say “look over there and see where the hypothesis goes”, if people havent done that and simply invalidate anecdotes because meme, then the answer is not known

And for many questions the data doesn’t exist, just because someone elevated USPS change of address filings as a signal doesn’t mean it is the strongest

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by vmception on Thursday October 07, 2021 @10:10PM (#28794927)
but there is always the potential for one.

get California moving and those emigrants could turn every single state blue starting with every swing county, worth mentioning as the opposite is not true for the opposition party, from a math and distinctly unpartisan perspective.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by muzz on Thursday October 07, 2021 @09:39PM (#28794689)
Everyone I've talked to is staying put. Friends, families, social roots, etc are deep I guess.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by paxys on Thursday October 07, 2021 @08:55PM (#28794309)
That is a massive assumption. Plus with continuous growth in home value their tax bill will also keep ballooning, unlike in California where prop 13 shields homeowners from this.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by Apocryphon on Thursday October 07, 2021 @08:51PM (#28794271)
Beyond housing, isn't traffic a problem? Lots of people will be commuting from Round Rock.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by travelton on Thursday October 07, 2021 @10:13PM (#28794950)
> Lots of people will be commuting from Round Rock.

By the time Tesla reaches critical mass in Austin, Project Connect may very well be on its way to construction of the Orange and Blue lines. This establishes a light rail train from North Austin to the Airport. Given Round Rock is north of Austin, and the Airport is nearly adjacent to the Tesla complex, this could be a suitable option for commuters. Or easily extended with additional investment.

Though, for white collar jobs, I would expect multiple Tesla offices in Austin to work around this problem. They already have office space leased on opposite ends of the city.

Tech Ridge is a great location that is accessible from Round Rock and Cedar Park. Apple, GE, 3M, Home Depot, and Blue Apron all have offices in this area.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by etchalon on Thursday October 07, 2021 @09:01PM (#28794381)
I moved from Chicago, so my definition of bad traffic is fairly skewed. It hasn't been that bad here, but I'm sure some of that is the transition to WFH for a lot of the people who would traditionally have driven into downtown.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by adamredwoods on Friday October 08, 2021 @03:06AM (#28796507)
Chicago traffic reminds me of LA. It's sprawling, long distances, that crawls bumper to bumper. The SF Bay area's traffic was crawling at all hours of the day and night, but it's shorter distances with many exits. NYC traffic is crazy, but there are plenty of alternatives.

I think all metro traffic situations are relative, because no one likes any amount of traffic.

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by pvarangot on Thursday October 07, 2021 @08:56PM (#28794323)
According to a friend that moved to Austin last year, yeah traffic is a problem but in downtown Austin in new buildings it's even worse. Sewage is a problem.
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by muzz on Thursday October 07, 2021 @10:00PM (#28794856)
That sounds really bad. What are the specific problems with sewage there?
Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by travelton on Thursday October 07, 2021 @10:18PM (#28794973)
> According to a friend

I wouldn't trust this. Speaking as a resident of Austin, there's several OG Austinites that are mad about all the change. Sounds like FUD to me. Point to a source please!

Re:Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin by pvarangot on Friday October 08, 2021 @02:36AM (#28796362)
I won't repeat what he said as it's as sourceless as what I said before, but it's a problem, builders complain about it, the infrastructure for the city is not well run. Here's two sources for problems like in the past month:

This two are the same problem: http://www.austintexas.gov/news/sanitary-sewer-overflow-repo... https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/sewer-overflow-sends-...

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/93-of-austins-stormwater...