44.1M verified cases in the out of 329.5M ~= 13%, and that's with verified cases, so it's likely much higher. My guess is younger people are even more likely to get it given their lifestyle is highly social at that age, and risk tolerance is similarly high.

Given it's not slowing down, the likelihood of getting covid is actually quite high over time.

These are US numbers, though. Norway, e.g., has tested like crazy and diagnosed 4% of its population with covid throughout the pandemic. Given that the US numbers for covid cases are at least three times higher, the risk assessment will necessarily be different.

The Scandinavian solution will likely be to just delay vaccination for a week while a dose of the Pfeizer vaccine is tracked down. The change of contracting covid in that timeframe is very small.

These ethical considerations are necessarily local.

That 4% will only go up over time. Per the article they’re only stopping a select demographic for Pfizer.

My point is it won't go up much during the small delay when the small percentage of as-yet unvaccinated young men simply take the other vaccine instead.

As with transmissibility, the virulence is not constant over time.

Not to mention as time goes by, many other things are de-risked such as literally our understanding of vaccine side effects and proper mitigations, and new therapies.

The CDC estimated that 36% of Americans had been infected as of May 2021. Numbers are certainly higher now.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

In Scotland about 8% of 12-15 year olds got it in 5 weeks after the beginning of the school year. UK did not vaccinate <16 year olds till 20th September. Now they got forced natural immunity.

It obviously depends on your lifestyle, which is also why it should never be mandated. I call this the risk coefficient – it's different for everyone.

Personally, I've effectively been self-isolating since January. Why should I get a shot now? Especially if it's going to wear off in 5 months?

It don't wear off to 0, you're risk of hospitalization or death is far far far greater if you're unvaccinated (even with declining efficacy of catching it), the safety profiles are known to be great especially considering the hundreds of millions vaccinated, and unless you're very extreme you'll want to come out of the woods at some point.