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Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by azinman2 on Thursday October 07, 2021 @03:59PM (#28791330)
2.7 per 100k [1] according to an Israeli study. Couldn’t find these details on the Scandinavian study. This article at least in text said you’re more at risk of getting it from Covid than the vaccine — I wish this context with numbers were always printed in these cases. The non-scientifically trained public isn’t taught or should be expected to know how to contextualize these things.

[1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110475

Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by justinpombrio on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:36PM (#28791708)
Wow. I'm trying to do a sanity check on this study, and I'm not convinced they found anything but noise?

They looked at 25 "averse events", and only half of them (12 of the 25) had higher prevalence with the vaccine than in the control group, which is what "no difference" looks like. The normal way you protect against this is by adjusting for the fact that you're doing multiple tests (one for each of the 25 adverse events), but "As is standard practice for studies of safety outcomes, no adjustment for multiple comparisons was performed.". Am I missing something?

Or to put it differently, if the vaccine puts you at risk for intracranial hemorrhages, does it also protect you against acute kidney injury (irrespective of Covid)? The difference is just as big in the other direction.

Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by marcosdumay on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:52PM (#28791895)
I'm not sure any of the studies that measured it for any of the 3 main vaccines are distinguishable from noise. All the numbers that I managed to find weren't.

I'm starting to think that we should redesign all the older vaccines to be more like those ones.

Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by Mikeb85 on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:11PM (#28791469)
> This article at least in text said you’re more at risk of getting it from Covid than the vaccine

But the risk of getting COVID in any time period is less than 1 (based on % of population that has actually had it, possibly less than 0.1 or 10% per year), so it's worth waiting for the safest vaccine for certain groups.

Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by azinman2 on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:16PM (#28791523)
44.1M verified cases in the out of 329.5M ~= 13%, and that's with verified cases, so it's likely much higher. My guess is younger people are even more likely to get it given their lifestyle is highly social at that age, and risk tolerance is similarly high.

Given it's not slowing down, the likelihood of getting covid is actually quite high over time.

Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by marvin on Thursday October 07, 2021 @05:18PM (#28792227)
These are US numbers, though. Norway, e.g., has tested like crazy and diagnosed 4% of its population with covid throughout the pandemic. Given that the US numbers for covid cases are at least three times higher, the risk assessment will necessarily be different.

The Scandinavian solution will likely be to just delay vaccination for a week while a dose of the Pfeizer vaccine is tracked down. The change of contracting covid in that timeframe is very small.

These ethical considerations are necessarily local.

Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by azinman2 on Thursday October 07, 2021 @08:25PM (#28794019)
That 4% will only go up over time. Per the article they’re only stopping a select demographic for Pfizer.
Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by marvin on Friday October 08, 2021 @02:22AM (#28796280)
My point is it won't go up much during the small delay when the small percentage of as-yet unvaccinated young men simply take the other vaccine instead.
Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by krona on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:20PM (#28791563)
As with transmissibility, the virulence is not constant over time.
Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by gfodor on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:42PM (#28791778)
Not to mention as time goes by, many other things are de-risked such as literally our understanding of vaccine side effects and proper mitigations, and new therapies.
Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by nradov on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:19PM (#28791555)
The CDC estimated that 36% of Americans had been infected as of May 2021. Numbers are certainly higher now.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by nojokes on Thursday October 07, 2021 @06:00PM (#28792644)
In Scotland about 8% of 12-15 year olds got it in 5 weeks after the beginning of the school year. UK did not vaccinate <16 year olds till 20th September. Now they got forced natural immunity.
Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by TechBro8615 on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:26PM (#28791620)
It obviously depends on your lifestyle, which is also why it should never be mandated. I call this the risk coefficient – it's different for everyone.

Personally, I've effectively been self-isolating since January. Why should I get a shot now? Especially if it's going to wear off in 5 months?

Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by azinman2 on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:56PM (#28791950)
It don't wear off to 0, you're risk of hospitalization or death is far far far greater if you're unvaccinated (even with declining efficacy of catching it), the safety profiles are known to be great especially considering the hundreds of millions vaccinated, and unless you're very extreme you'll want to come out of the woods at some point.
Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by mfer on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:02PM (#28791356)
The Israeli study was on Phizer. Finland is recommending people people not take Moderna and instead take the Phizer.

Without a more detailed case behind this it feels like "just trust us".

I'd really like some trust but verify. The lack of ability to verify many of these directions, especially with some of them from different organizations contradicting each other, is bothersome.

Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by azinman2 on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:11PM (#28791471)
New study using Kaiser data with both Pfizer and Moderna all ages [1]. 15 cases out of 2,392,924 (0.8 cases per 1 million first doses and 5.8 cases per 1 million second doses over a 10-day observation window), of which all were men with a median age of 25 years.

While that's both vaccines, it's still quite rare especially given the large population size (2.3M people), especially considering for under 16s your risk of myocarditis is 37x more likely if you get Covid [2].

[1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...

[2] https://www.aappublications.org/news/2021/08/31/covid-myocar...

Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by mfer on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:34PM (#28791698)
Thanks for the data.

In a world where people like to talk about their opinions, it's great to have some form of foundation. When I speak to folks and can talk about these details it often sways opinions on those who aren't at the extremes. I wish more people shared data and the foundation for their opinion.

Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by 8note on Thursday October 07, 2021 @07:32PM (#28793532)
What's missing is how many people you'd expect to have some myocarditis in absense of covid or the vaccine.

I doubt that it would be 0/2M

Re:Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covi... by robbedpeter on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:33PM (#28791691)
27 out of a million, or 1 out of 37000. For some reason using "whole people" in statistics makes it seem a little more real to me, 2.7 of 100k seems too dry and remote.