* Prior to Brexit, I reckon the UK's main selling-point to US and Asian multinationals was that it's a perfect beachhead into mainland Europe, namely as everyone speaks English already, so localization (well, localisation) doesn't need to be a concern at-first, and allows companies to test-the-water by marketing locally in the British Isles before expanding into the rest of mainland Europe.
* As the UK's regulatory environment was in the EU it meant that getting sign-off from British regulators (again: where language and cultural-barriers won't be an issue) is more straightforward as you don't need to seek regulatory approval in every EU country, only 1.
* Extant supply of highly-qualified, if not world-leading, scientists, researchers and engineers and access to its higher-education system - and those researchers and engs would have included more of mainland Europe's best too due to greater academic collaboration within the EU.
Post-Brexit: all the UK has is... speaking English, and that's it. Now non-EU companies need to seek regulatory approval in both the EU and UK - and the EU's market is considerably larger.
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I reckon within a decade the UK will find some way to rejoin the more important parts of the EU in-all-but-name, including (possibly!) even joining Schengen to alleviate all of the issues with labour shortages, tourism, and the rest - as well as seeking de-jure regulatory alignment - because the UK is really not the super-desirable market the Daily Express likes to believe it is.
I also sincerely believe the UK will also likely rejoin the EU proper - probably within a generation from now: the age demographics of the leave and remain demographics are stark - it's even been said if the Brexit referendum were held 2 years later then remain would have won simply because enough members of older generations (which lean heavily Leave) would have died off.
Plot-twist: it'll be Scotland vetoing England's application to join.
Isn't it also possible that some remainers, a few years older, would have changed their mind?
I cannot think of any rational thought process behind voting Remain in 2016 and then hypothetically voting Leave in 2021.
The other is that they wouldn't vote "remain", they would vote "join". There is always a resistance to change.
1.3M people are reckoned to have left the UK during the pandemic / post Brexit and don't think they're coming back
There are plenty of rational reasons that someone might have come down on the Remain side before but swung the other way now. The EU has arguably proved several of the major criticisms made by the more reasonable Leave supporters correct since then. There was criticism of the democratic deficit. Now we have Ursula von der Leyen running the show and (figuratively speaking) no-one is quite sure how she got there. There was criticism that the EU was excessively bureaucratic, litigious and slow-moving, and that member states were fair weather friends. Then we saw the handling of the COVID/vaccine and immigration/refugee issues. And the more extreme predictions of British life as we know it coming to an end haven't happened either (at least not because of Brexit).
Of course, there are also plenty of rational reasons that someone might have come down on the Leave side before but now think it was the wrong choice. Several of the major warnings given by the more reasonable Remain supporters have also proved to be well founded, particularly in terms of the immediate consequences of the extra trade barriers and the limitations on free movement of labour.
I'm not taking any side here, just pointing out that both sides had legitimate points to make before Brexit that have subsequently proved to be largely correct, and that someone who didn't expect that might have changed their view in light of that information, in either direction.
It's perhaps worth remembering that the older generation who voted more in favour of leaving in the Brexit referendum were much the same generation whose younger selves voted to stay in once before. Obviously the nature of what is now the EU had changed a lot in the meantime, and so had the balance of public sentiment within that demographic. It might be surprising if such a large shift had occurred in just a few years now but the basic premise that some people might have changed their minds since voting on Brexit is plausible enough.
I have followed brexit a bit in media and online debates, i have not heard a single good concrete argument for leaving.
For brexit arguments were just empty platitudes about freedom, choice and independence, but when asked about specific law that is issue, or what they would do with new freedom, there was always a silence.
fwiw I don’t claim the Lisbon Treaty is actually responsible (there are many variables like increasing house prices) but that is the issue, there are no concrete or tangible arguments from either side, that is why leave won.
But I wonder why they would feel ignored and marginalised, they must all just be mediocre and afraid of competition.
The EU has a democratic deficit. It is a legislative and executive body where those with the most power are selected so indirectly that they have little personal accountability. Many EU Commissioners are career politicians who have become unpopular in their home state and have been given the job as a golden ticket.
The EU is systemically flawed as a financial arrangement. It has a currency union but only limited tax coordination and this will inevitably lead to internal conflicts during times of economic pressure such as the Greek situation.
The EU is a protectionist trade bloc. In the short term, this means membership is good for free trade within the bloc but bad for trade across its border. An example is that there is fresh produce we can source from either EU or African suppliers but the latter are artificially expensive if we have to impose the common tariffs, which reduces competition and so harms our consumers. The UK has been increasing its international trade for a long time but the EU has represented a decreasing proportion of that trade as a long term trend even with the bias that membership creates, so remaining in the bloc is the wrong side of the line to be on in the long term.
The EU does not have a good track record of negotiating international deals on behalf of its members. It has so far failed to establish comprehensive FTAs with many of the largest economies outside its own members and while its size is an advantage in negotiations, it also has to reconcile the sometimes contradictory interests of its many members, which can cause problems as illustrated by the CETA process.
The EU is bureaucratic and slow, and its philosophy of trying to unify everything creates many bad regulations and interferes with free market economics in ways that can be detrimental to members. Its handling of VAT and many digital/technology issues are recurring examples where it may do more harm than good to some member states or their people or businesses.
The EU has an expansionist agenda whether openly acknowledged or not. It has seen considerable scope creep since the last popular vote to stay in and it has a track record of trying to bypass popular consent or seeking that consent repeatedly until it gets the answer it wants, so not leaving now also leaves us committed to an uncertain future.
However and especially since UK has... sorry had a lot of power in EU, why not work towards reforming those issues?
> The EU is a protectionist trade bloc.
Thats a pro not a con, EU protects internal markets from external ones. Overall its better for stability of the overall economy, sure you will find few outliers like cheaper fish example.
Anyhow, all of those examples are only going to be amplified for UK, as a single country. Its much easier to bully lone country as UK than whole EU block.
> I heard quite a few. Again I stress that I am not taking sides here or saying I fully agree with every point, just giving some examples of reasonable arguments for balance since arguments the other way have been widely discussed anyway.
I hate when this has to be done to avoid downvotes :/
Anyhow sadly those are the best arguments I heard for brexit. Though I dont think they are even close to justify all the shit brexit caused.
Thanks for you input.
Much like how criticism of Darwinian evolution doesn't automatically support arguments in favour of creationism, let alone "prove" it - neither does (quite legitimate!) criticism of the EU automatically make a case for leaving the EU. My impression is that those newspapers were basically making that argument: "the EU sucks, we should leave" - it was never "the EU sucks, let's make it better".
> It's perhaps worth remembering that the older generation who voted more in favour of leaving in the Brexit referendum were much the same generation whose younger selves voted to stay in once before.
Indeed, and this does perplex me - but again, consider that the arguments for Leave were nothing like the arguments for not joining the EU back in 1973. Also, don't forget the public's near limitless capacity for political amnesia.
I agree that political amnesia is a strange phenomenon. On this kind of issue, that can shift the balance of popular opinion either way over time.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/0...
It's "possible" but it's also no where near enough people.
Maybe if they've suffered a head injury. Brexit is going badly by any metric.
And the point visa makes it pretty much trivial for well paid engineers to get a work visa in the UK. Where it makes it difficult is for low wage, low skill labour, which will create shortages, but I think that’s by design, whether you think it’s a good idea or not.
I don’t think that tariffs would affect CPU much either, I understand it is mostly cars or agricultural products that are deeply affected. Not the least because you can see that the EU is importing most of its CPUs right now, doesn’t seem to be much of a barrier.
I wouldn’t bet too much on the demographics helping remain in the long term. By conformism or risk aversion mostly there tends to always be a large mass behind the statu quo (which is why brexit winning was surprising). I think that will play both ways.
It's not that simple. Well-paid engineers often have families (spouse/partner, children), and hurdles to bringing in family mean I've seen well-paid engineers come to the UK in recent years, have the visas for their family refused, and so they have to leave.
I'm British but I work here in the US because I literally get paid multiples of what I'd make in the UK doing the exact same work.
Welsh I suspect too with a name like Dai!