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Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by eplanit on Thursday September 02, 2021 @12:51PM (#28394379)
That's not a slope, but a cliff -- and they've gone over it.

What has amazed me is how there are many Aussie's who agree with the rules and are happy to comply. It's amazing.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by djanogo on Thursday September 02, 2021 @01:01PM (#28394503)
This. It's amazing how first world countries are loosing democracy while 3rd world countries are going back to their normal schedule. Look at the cases in India, flat lined in last few months.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by sudosysgen on Thursday September 02, 2021 @01:11PM (#28394634)
Are you suggesting that the Indian numbers are in any way accurate?
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by djanogo on Thursday September 02, 2021 @05:54PM (#28397865)
It doesn't matter, panic is gone, they are not scared anymore as they got used to fact that >99% of them are surviving. >99% survival is very acceptable for countries where preventive health check ups does not exist.

In those countries people die all the time due to reasons which could have been prevented with regular health check ups and care, COVID restrictions were only making it worse for people who have to work everyday to pay for that days food.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by imustbeevil on Thursday September 02, 2021 @07:22PM (#28398610)
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/31/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday...

5 states have fewer than 10% of their ICU beds remaining. The public death rate of victims who receive treatment when necessary has virtually no relation with the reality of "number of people requiring medical care > medical care available". If those 5 states weren't doing even the minimum of vaccines/distancing/masking that they're doing today, they would be at 0% capacity, without question.

Definitely what Australia is doing is too much, but opening everything and leaving it to individual choices is an incomprehensibly bad position.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by tdfx on Thursday September 02, 2021 @07:38PM (#28398725)
> If those 5 states weren't doing even the minimum of vaccines/distancing/masking that they're doing today, they would be at 0% capacity, without question.

Is there evidence of that? From my limited and non-expert perspective, it seems that states that had substantial restrictions (California) experienced the same types of waves that states with barely any restrictions (Florida) experienced at different times. It seems like we have a lot less control of these waves than we think we do.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by ryandrake on Friday September 03, 2021 @12:04PM (#28405976)
The restrictions were uniformly unenforced throughout the USA. Enough people ignored them without consequence, so the pandemic effects were similar to states without restrictions. I live in CA, notorious for their "strict" stay-at-home orders and mask mandates. If I wanted to, I could have easily gotten in my car, violated those orders by driving around, found a restaurant violating those orders, sat down and eaten there, totally unmasked. If this was the situation in one of the "more locked down" states, then it's no surprise that the virus spread similarly to states where there were few restrictions.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by aww_dang on Thursday September 02, 2021 @01:49PM (#28395129)
I'm not confident in western numbers either. There's a definite conflict of interest when governments are tasked with collecting data which rationalizes their use of emergency powers.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by iammisc on Friday September 03, 2021 @12:00AM (#28400291)
Right new York under Cuomo, widely hailed as a star governor with regards to covid, misreported up to 12000 deaths, which only came to light officially when the lieutenant governor took over.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by edmundsauto on Thursday September 02, 2021 @08:43PM (#28399233)
There are government-independent studies that roughly reflect similar numbers. CMU's Delphi team has an interesting survey - no media involvement needed, they offer an API.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by water8 on Friday September 03, 2021 @04:19AM (#28401668)
Studies are worthless if the data reporting by the source (hospitals) was inaccurate. We have strong reason to believe bias since emergency funds were allocated to places with the highest covid count
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by edmundsauto on Saturday September 04, 2021 @05:14PM (#28419285)
> emergency funds were allocated to places with the highest covid count

Wouldn't this be how we would expect things to work? Places with more infections need more resources. It seems to me like the "strong reason to believe bias" is the exact same evidence as "this is how I would expect it to work in absence of bias".

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by nindalf on Thursday September 02, 2021 @01:27PM (#28394867)
The funny thing about India is that at the beginning of 2021, Covid was considered a thing of the past. Cases flat lined. The government was so confident it was trying to export vaccines to curry diplomatic favour.

Then delta came. Turns out being infected with one variant doesn’t offer as much protection against another variant as being vaccinated. (https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/06/22/how-immunity-genera...)

> The new evidence shows that protective antibodies generated in response to an mRNA vaccine will target a broader range of SARS-CoV-2 variants carrying “single letter” changes in a key portion of their spike protein compared to antibodies acquired from an infection.

So yeah, life is back to normal in India. Until the next variant.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by option_greek on Thursday September 02, 2021 @11:55PM (#28400262)
That is not true. There were some known cases of reinfections but not at a higher rate than breakthrough infections. And recent sero surveys have reported 60-80% of population is exposed to the virus either through vaccines or infections. On top of that nearly 60% is now vaccinated and new vaccinations are hitting 10 million per day. And yes, neither the government nor people here want lockdowns or masks (people at least).

So no. Next variant might affect India but no more than the other countries still enforcing crazy lockdowns.

Source: all over the news

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by belltaco on Thursday September 02, 2021 @01:25PM (#28394817)
Huh, countries with rising cases and not enough people with Covid antibodies are going to lockdown, and countries that are past their peak waves are going to open up - till the next wave if any.

There were tough curfews in India and police literally beating up people on the streets.

https://scroll.in/video/957293/watch-indian-police-are-beati...

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by donnythecroc on Thursday September 02, 2021 @11:09PM (#28399997)
I think you need to google images of where we are locked down if you want to understand why it's only a minor annoyance. In Sydney you could be locked down in mosmon, manly, Bronte, Bondi, rushcutters, watsons Bay, Diamond Bay, coogee, clovelly, Avalon, palm Beach etc etc and you would be in one of the most beautiful places in the world full of sunshine, sea and sand. Today I'll be going to the beach in Double Bay, I'll go on a coastal walk (see some whales if I'm lucky) and over the weekend I'll go out kayaking and surfing - all within our lockdown rules.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by LIV2 on Friday September 03, 2021 @02:21AM (#28401006)
Yes if you're privileged enough to live in some of the more expensive suburbs in Sydney it's not a problem at all.

Screw everyone else though right?

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by sothengo on Friday September 03, 2021 @04:05AM (#28401608)
9 in 10 of our population lives half an hour's drive from the coastline. Stop mistaking our country for your own. https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/previousproducts/13...
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by makomk on Friday September 03, 2021 @05:26AM (#28402068)
Lockdown means that it is literally illegal to make that drive to the coastline right now, and it will continue to be for the foreseeable future. The only people who get to enjoy being in "one of the most beautiful places in the world full of sunshine, sea and sand" during lockdown are a few incredibly wealthy folks living in expensive homes in expensive regions of the country. The comment you're replying to is exactly right.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by LIV2 on Friday September 03, 2021 @06:01AM (#28402292)
How many live within 5km / in an LGA with a beach?

> Stop mistaking our country for your own.

I'm Australian

It's also convenient that these suburbs are not the ones being targeted by huge police operations

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/08/weste...

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by TheGreatReset on Friday September 03, 2021 @05:26AM (#28402065)
Half an hour drive ≠ 5km lockdown restrictions. Your condescending tone is typical of Australia's managerial class, completely disconnected from the realities most locked down Australians are facing.

Have a moment to ponder the existence of immigrant small business owners facing bankruptcy in Parramatta, the furloughed truckies in Blacktown, the working class kids in overcrowded government housing in Penrith.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by azinman2 on Thursday September 02, 2021 @12:57PM (#28394457)
And consequently their Covid numbers are very low.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by techbio on Thursday September 02, 2021 @01:09PM (#28394612)
When a measure becomes a target...
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by edmundsauto on Thursday September 02, 2021 @08:45PM (#28399243)
Wisdom becomes a platitude when repeated without specific comments about relevance.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by techbio on Thursday September 02, 2021 @09:51PM (#28399615)
It is relevant in the context of the message thread it replies to. If you do think my reply was unwise, I'd be happy to have your explanation for why you think that, but I am fairly certain that platitude is the wrong word here. Maybe you mean something like "played out", but then that would seem to be just your opinion.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by edmundsauto on Friday September 03, 2021 @01:46PM (#28407178)
Why do you think this measure is a target? It is possible for a measure to become a target and still remain useful - a few catchy words that describe some situations doesn't give any indication of an analysis of the process, or even define the difference between a measure and a target, or any indication that is what's happening here.

Some measures become targets, sometimes. Sometimes those become less useful; other times they are both useful and not useful in different ways.

Determining when something is useful is too nuanced and multi-dimensional to reduce it to a catchy phrase.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by techbio on Friday September 03, 2021 @05:15PM (#28409496)
Show me it isn't?

If you are simply critical of my brevity and not my message, I agree with you but am surprised that you would be less critical of the message to which I replied.

If you believe there is no evidence of society conforming itself in drastic ways to attempt to control infection rates, we may be operating with different facts, but I unfortunately remain unaware of which facts yours are, and apparently you of mine.

Edit: It is my position that the actions of authorities should be aligned with the preferred outcomes of the governed, and any relevant information made transparently available to the governed to be fairly evaluated. My assumption is that in the case of Australia and others, a mandate to fight a virus has become an outsized metric in the role of governing and some other leading institutions, and other issues are not being addressed that should be.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by edmundsauto on Saturday September 04, 2021 @05:09PM (#28419247)
> Show me it isn't?

Often repeated on this forum: positive assertions require the support. In this case, something like, "here is how the current situation resembles this abstraction and thus we can conclude XYZ". You seem to feel the work is done just by making a passing comment that superficially resembles the situation. Some dots that would be worth connecting:

1. What is the a priori difference between measure and target?

2. How can we tell when we have passed between the two?

3. Can a measure be a target and still be useful?

4. What if a measure is sometimes a target to some people, but sometimes purely a measure to others? Or at different times, or different locales?

5. Is there any context to expand the problem dimensionality to beyond an artificial difference of Measure/Target?

There are plenty of other explanations that could be offered, and would fit the available facts. If alternative explanations could fit the same facts, it requires additional work to disprove other explanations before deciding on "the right answer" (which doesn't really exist). Or one could, ya know, acknowledge that any particular interpretation is just an opinion and not particularly insightful.

Looking for alternatives and seriously considering them is a critical step for reducing bias. I will leave it as an exercise for you to work through your own biases - anything I suggest at this point would be dismissed. However, if you find yourself seeing this as either this-way, or that-way, you are probably experiencing tunnel vision and not seeing the complexity and messiness of real life situations.

Regardless, a glib phrase that might apply in some ways, and doesn't apply in others, is not a particularly useful or insightful approach.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by techbio on Sunday September 05, 2021 @12:50PM (#28425683)
While I appreciate the effort that went into your replies, and may even have learned something, they seem rather abstracted from the questions I asked and the topic in context.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by techbio on Friday September 03, 2021 @12:24PM (#28406237)
It would be fun to see who thinks running a country by using the target of infection rate is better than the (also) deeply flawed target of GDP. Either I've miscalculated or misspoken, but I don't see that my post needed any more elaboration than its final ellipses, and the silent downvotes perhaps could be better explained, but I'll just assume my post was too low effort to merit that and forget all about it.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by SpicyLemonZest on Thursday September 02, 2021 @01:17PM (#28394720)
The whole motivation for the source article is that this tradeoff is no longer the case. Case numbers are high and rising fast, with NSW edging close to numbers in other countries, and the Australian government no longer believes it will be possible to bring them back down.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by nl on Friday September 03, 2021 @12:33AM (#28400437)
> NSW edging close to numbers in other countries

NSW (a state of 8.1 Million) had just over 1000 new cases today, and 12 deaths - and that is the worst day of the whole pandemic.

That's... not like other countries.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by SpicyLemonZest on Friday September 03, 2021 @12:55AM (#28400544)
Their historical record is much better than other countries, but the worst day being today raises some pretty serious questions about whether that record is likely to continue. In terms of a day to day comparison, France today reported 17,000 cases and 83 deaths among a population of 67 million - a bit better in terms of deaths, a solid chunk worse in terms of cases, but definitely not the wild orders-of-magnitude difference that Australian policymakers hoped to maintain.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by nl on Friday September 03, 2021 @01:18AM (#28400636)
Agreed.

France is 60% fully vaccinated, Australia less than 30%. There's the real problem. At that disastrously low vaccination rate it's only lockdown keeping the death rate that low.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by Andaith on Friday September 03, 2021 @01:34AM (#28400735)
I saw a news article that said modelling suggests cases will plateau in about a fortnight in NSW before trending down as the vaccinations start impacting the spread.

We are also vaccinating like mad right now. The vaccination numbers for the UK were about 160K, and for NSW about 140K, but that's for a pop of 67mil vs 8.1mil.

Our first doses for some age groups are also hitting 90%, so I'm taking that to mean there's less vaccine hesitancy here too.

NSW did have it's worst day, but I reckon overall we'll be fine.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by nl on Friday September 03, 2021 @02:00AM (#28400891)
There's no way the improving vaccination rate will have an impact in a fortnight unfortunately. And we'll never see COVID zero again.

Micheal Tam's modelling is probably the best widely available a frequently updated[1]. The new daily infections is still increasing, but the rate of increase of new daily infections is finally beginning to decrease. This is probably an effect of the lockdown, and shows how unlikely it is to be free of this before the end of the year.

The increased vaccination rate is fantastic. Once we are above 60% or 70% we should be more worried about hospitalisation rates and deaths than infections.

[1] https://vitualis.com/?page_id=8354