News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by azinman2 on Thursday September 02, 2021 @12:57PM (#28394457)
And consequently their Covid numbers are very low.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by techbio on Thursday September 02, 2021 @01:09PM (#28394612)
When a measure becomes a target...
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by edmundsauto on Thursday September 02, 2021 @08:45PM (#28399243)
Wisdom becomes a platitude when repeated without specific comments about relevance.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by techbio on Thursday September 02, 2021 @09:51PM (#28399615)
It is relevant in the context of the message thread it replies to. If you do think my reply was unwise, I'd be happy to have your explanation for why you think that, but I am fairly certain that platitude is the wrong word here. Maybe you mean something like "played out", but then that would seem to be just your opinion.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by edmundsauto on Friday September 03, 2021 @01:46PM (#28407178)
Why do you think this measure is a target? It is possible for a measure to become a target and still remain useful - a few catchy words that describe some situations doesn't give any indication of an analysis of the process, or even define the difference between a measure and a target, or any indication that is what's happening here.

Some measures become targets, sometimes. Sometimes those become less useful; other times they are both useful and not useful in different ways.

Determining when something is useful is too nuanced and multi-dimensional to reduce it to a catchy phrase.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by techbio on Friday September 03, 2021 @05:15PM (#28409496)
Show me it isn't?

If you are simply critical of my brevity and not my message, I agree with you but am surprised that you would be less critical of the message to which I replied.

If you believe there is no evidence of society conforming itself in drastic ways to attempt to control infection rates, we may be operating with different facts, but I unfortunately remain unaware of which facts yours are, and apparently you of mine.

Edit: It is my position that the actions of authorities should be aligned with the preferred outcomes of the governed, and any relevant information made transparently available to the governed to be fairly evaluated. My assumption is that in the case of Australia and others, a mandate to fight a virus has become an outsized metric in the role of governing and some other leading institutions, and other issues are not being addressed that should be.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by edmundsauto on Saturday September 04, 2021 @05:09PM (#28419247)
> Show me it isn't?

Often repeated on this forum: positive assertions require the support. In this case, something like, "here is how the current situation resembles this abstraction and thus we can conclude XYZ". You seem to feel the work is done just by making a passing comment that superficially resembles the situation. Some dots that would be worth connecting:

1. What is the a priori difference between measure and target?

2. How can we tell when we have passed between the two?

3. Can a measure be a target and still be useful?

4. What if a measure is sometimes a target to some people, but sometimes purely a measure to others? Or at different times, or different locales?

5. Is there any context to expand the problem dimensionality to beyond an artificial difference of Measure/Target?

There are plenty of other explanations that could be offered, and would fit the available facts. If alternative explanations could fit the same facts, it requires additional work to disprove other explanations before deciding on "the right answer" (which doesn't really exist). Or one could, ya know, acknowledge that any particular interpretation is just an opinion and not particularly insightful.

Looking for alternatives and seriously considering them is a critical step for reducing bias. I will leave it as an exercise for you to work through your own biases - anything I suggest at this point would be dismissed. However, if you find yourself seeing this as either this-way, or that-way, you are probably experiencing tunnel vision and not seeing the complexity and messiness of real life situations.

Regardless, a glib phrase that might apply in some ways, and doesn't apply in others, is not a particularly useful or insightful approach.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by techbio on Sunday September 05, 2021 @12:50PM (#28425683)
While I appreciate the effort that went into your replies, and may even have learned something, they seem rather abstracted from the questions I asked and the topic in context.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by techbio on Friday September 03, 2021 @12:24PM (#28406237)
It would be fun to see who thinks running a country by using the target of infection rate is better than the (also) deeply flawed target of GDP. Either I've miscalculated or misspoken, but I don't see that my post needed any more elaboration than its final ellipses, and the silent downvotes perhaps could be better explained, but I'll just assume my post was too low effort to merit that and forget all about it.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by SpicyLemonZest on Thursday September 02, 2021 @01:17PM (#28394720)
The whole motivation for the source article is that this tradeoff is no longer the case. Case numbers are high and rising fast, with NSW edging close to numbers in other countries, and the Australian government no longer believes it will be possible to bring them back down.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by nl on Friday September 03, 2021 @12:33AM (#28400437)
> NSW edging close to numbers in other countries

NSW (a state of 8.1 Million) had just over 1000 new cases today, and 12 deaths - and that is the worst day of the whole pandemic.

That's... not like other countries.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by SpicyLemonZest on Friday September 03, 2021 @12:55AM (#28400544)
Their historical record is much better than other countries, but the worst day being today raises some pretty serious questions about whether that record is likely to continue. In terms of a day to day comparison, France today reported 17,000 cases and 83 deaths among a population of 67 million - a bit better in terms of deaths, a solid chunk worse in terms of cases, but definitely not the wild orders-of-magnitude difference that Australian policymakers hoped to maintain.
Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by nl on Friday September 03, 2021 @01:18AM (#28400636)
Agreed.

France is 60% fully vaccinated, Australia less than 30%. There's the real problem. At that disastrously low vaccination rate it's only lockdown keeping the death rate that low.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by Andaith on Friday September 03, 2021 @01:34AM (#28400735)
I saw a news article that said modelling suggests cases will plateau in about a fortnight in NSW before trending down as the vaccinations start impacting the spread.

We are also vaccinating like mad right now. The vaccination numbers for the UK were about 160K, and for NSW about 140K, but that's for a pop of 67mil vs 8.1mil.

Our first doses for some age groups are also hitting 90%, so I'm taking that to mean there's less vaccine hesitancy here too.

NSW did have it's worst day, but I reckon overall we'll be fine.

Re:How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and st... by nl on Friday September 03, 2021 @02:00AM (#28400891)
There's no way the improving vaccination rate will have an impact in a fortnight unfortunately. And we'll never see COVID zero again.

Micheal Tam's modelling is probably the best widely available a frequently updated[1]. The new daily infections is still increasing, but the rate of increase of new daily infections is finally beginning to decrease. This is probably an effect of the lockdown, and shows how unlikely it is to be free of this before the end of the year.

The increased vaccination rate is fantastic. Once we are above 60% or 70% we should be more worried about hospitalisation rates and deaths than infections.

[1] https://vitualis.com/?page_id=8354