Back when I flew gliders, every educated pilot knew that the intermediate (aka "avid") pilots killed themselves the most. This is well established statistically. Overconfidence, complaisance with risk, etc.

Normalization of Deviance

"… [Y]ou could make it to a high level of expertise but then succumb to the complacency fed by your successful experiences, you could be beaten by the ever-present need to accomplish objectives (save time, save money, achieve schedules), or you might rebel against unrealistic SOPs and burdensome regulations.

Either way, you are living on borrowed time. Fortunately, you can change things."

http://www.aviationchief.com/normalization-of-deviance.html

Good article, thanks.

I just listened to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6wuzm8p16M - The Rangers deployed to find Marcus Luttrell | Tony Brooks, Ranger | Ep. 107

Tony says Rangers are notorious for going out on missions without a safe amount of water or food. He said they nearly took casualties on that rescue mission due to dehydration, and that if he did it again he'd take less ammo and more water.

Also, see Aaron Ralston, the guy who disappeared for a week because he got his arm stuck under a rock in a slot canyon. He says his biggest mistake was not going out alone, but rather neglecting to tell anyone else about his plans and schedule. This kind of thing is super common among experienced outdoorsmen and women.

Bingo, great read. Thanks for linking!

Something about there being old pilots and bold pilots, but very few old, bold pilots.

same for cave divers.

There's a book about this problem:

https://www.amazon.com/Killing-Zone-Second-How-Pilots/dp/007...

The avid hikers I knew in SoCal and WA never made this mistake. They always knew how much to bring, usually bringing extra and dumping out what they didn't need at halfway. In SoCal I brought 2 liters minimum. You must have a different definition of "avid."

Absolutely this also I went kayaking with some professionals that had some major accomplishments, like ocean crossings. I was the only one to take an extra paddle they all made fun of me for it guess who saved the day when we needed an extra paddle 4 days from civilization.

The most avid hikers I know don't bother carrying an emergency beacon, either :(

Emergency beacons are overkill for hiking and camping. But they're mandatory for backcountry skiing IMO, where there's a significant risk of an accident that makes you invisible from the surface, e.g., by avalanche, or falling into a tree well:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_well

The number of stories I’ve read about people getting rescued tells me that the beacons are not overkill.

Activating you beacon while buried under snow seems very difficult if not impossoble.

I don't think you understand how beacons work. Avalanche beacons have a maximum range of around 60 meters. And you don't activate a beacon after an accident, you turn it on at the start of your run, or preferably at the start of the day. They only help us if we have a general idea of where someone might be buried, and even if we have a strong signal, we're still usually using our poles to actually find the person.

If we're talking about hiking and trekking, then we're talking about PLB's with satellite com. PLBs cost hundreds of dollars, and they must be registered with the SARSAT database. I personally don't know anyone who uses one for hiking or mountaineering. Do you?

I use a Mammut Barryvox avy beacon and a Garmin Inreach. Each for a different purpose, of course. They both cost hundreds of dollars.

I looked at those Garmins a while back. How do you feel about the size and weight?

Inreach Mini is totally worth the weight, not just for SOS but texting people (2-way) or getting weather reports. I've used it just for meeting up with people who also had Inreaches in places with spotty reception (many climbing areas). On a big climbs you can send check in messages to people at home.

Ah, I was looking at the full size ones. How's the Mini's battery life?

Another solo hiker & backpacker here; I have a Garmin inreach and they're fairly common among solo backpackers that I know.

I hike solo and carry one. Was about 200, registering online takes five minutes.

From my perspective, it's not someone else's responsibility to risk their lives and come rescue me as a hiker if I fuck up.

Do not rescue.

Good point!