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Re:Early Retirement (2006) by flowerlad on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @10:57AM (#28061747)
How much money can a Silicon Valley software engineer expect to have at retirement?

This article says $7 million: https://www.wealthmeta.com/blog/being-a-doctor-vs-being-a-so...

Here's the back-of-the-envelope calculation: Annual salary: $250K (it is much higher at FAANG). Assume 25% tax (effective, not marginal), which leaves us with $187.5K, which is about $15K per month. Assume $5000 in monthly expenses, which leaves us with $10K per month investable money. (Note: since net worth includes house and 401(k) I have not deducted mortgage or 401(k) payments). So $10K includes those items.) Now use a compound interest calculator to see what $10K per month at 8% interest (assume investment in S&P 500 and allow for some market crashes) will result in, at the end of 30 years. It is about $14 million, which would include your house and your 401(k).

Here's a spreadsheet that allows you to plug in your own numbers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ryu_-mVYxSdJbW8lmf1z...

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by showerst on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:01AM (#28061794)
Those numbers are pretty optimistic for expenses if you live somewhere expensive, ever plan to get into a long term relationship and/or have kids, or ever plan to make a down payment on a house.

I think your tax calculation is way low too, but haven't done the math.

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by ryandrake on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:52AM (#28062469)
The salary numbers are very optimistic, too. A small number of tech workers at a small number of FAANG companies in a small number of locations, will be making $250K from the start or even average that much throughout their careers. I know, I know, everyone on HN makes $400K and drives a Ferarri, but that's very optimistic number for most people.

EDIT: Also: house should not be included in your net worth for the purposes of calculating retirement draw-down, unless you plan to liquidate your home equity to live on.

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by flowerlad on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:03AM (#28061814)
Who needs to spend more than $5000 per month, not including mortgage?
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by colinmhayes on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:10AM (#28061907)
No one needs to do anything, but most families living in silicon valley are probably spending more than 5k a month. 8% is also probably too high. S&P historical returns are 7%, plus 15% tax.
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by rwilson4 on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:06AM (#28061845)
People with kids. My daughter's preschool is more expensive than my college was!
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by JKCalhoun on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:08AM (#28061878)
Wait until your nest is empty.
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by mikedouglas on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:08AM (#28061882)
Who has a mortgage without interest payments?
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by robertlagrant on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:53AM (#28062497)
I think in the US the interest is deductible.
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by lotsofpulp on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @12:18PM (#28062824)
A very small portion of people in the US benefit from the mortgage interest tax deduction ever since the standard deduction was greatly increased. You have to itemize (forego the standard deduction) in order to take advantage, and only 13% of tax filers itemize on their taxes in the US.
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by showerst on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:08AM (#28061869)
You don't start out with a mortgage, unless have some unusual circumstances.
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by bloaf on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:07AM (#28061860)
If you do a little algebra and make some simple assumptions, it turns out that "years of work required for retirement" is a function of your savings ratio only, that is savings/take-home pay.

https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-si...

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by showerst on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:13AM (#28061945)
I like MMR, but like many people in that genre these over-simplified calculations only really work for a very narrow set of circumstances.

What happens if you want to buy a condo in a competitive market that requires a 200k downpayment? Or have a medium-sized wedding? Or have two kids in day-care?

I understand that the FIRE response would be that you don't _have_ to buy into all that stuff, but saying that it's just a little algebra and some simple assumptions is fantasy unless you want to live like a single 24 year old your whole life.

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by tejohnso on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:24AM (#28062092)
> unless you want to live like a single 24 year old your whole life.

Controlling expenses and living a humble life style is pretty much the opposite of living like a single 24 year old. At least for me and most of the single 24 year olds I knew back then.

It takes wisdom and maturity to realize that you don't need all that stuff. And if you can find a partner with the same outlook, you can certainly avoid spending tens of thousands on a wedding, or buying a condo in a competitive market. And there should be no need for day care if you're retired.

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by showerst on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:45AM (#28062356)
> It takes wisdom and maturity to realize that you don't need all that stuff

This is _exactly_ what I take issue with. Look, "live below your means and be thoughtful about what spending will make you happier" is great advice. So is "plan for a future where you don't have to work".

"Get a high paying remote job from a young age with no student loans, move somewhere cheap, actually find a partner there, don't dare find someone that makes teacher or non-professional salary or has health problems or student loans, wait until you're retired at 38 to have children, don't dare have kids with health problems or special needs, and lecture everyone else about how easy it is." is perhaps not the wise and mature advice you think it is.

I'm just the right age (37) to have grown up alongside the FIRE thing. I have a number of friends who tried it, some of them to the point of being smarmy about it. 100% of them hit late twenties and realized that the combo of "making a high income while having very low expenses" involves significant trade-offs, and is super hard to keep up. All of my friends eventually abandoned it, but I don't think that's the rule.

Describing FIRE as easy and saying that anyone who fails to do it is somehow less wise or immature is nonsense peddled by a bunch of people who retired early by writing "how to get retire early" blogs.

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by tonyedgecombe on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @12:32PM (#28063009)
I suspect the people who are able to keep a tight reign on their spending do so for its own sake. They get some satisfaction from it before they even start thinking about retirement.
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by mvp on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @01:45PM (#28063973)
To some people, the pain of letting the money go is greater than the perceived benefit of the product/service they get in return for the money, most of the time. You can imagine such people accumulating money all their life. For them, FIRE would be a very attractive proposition.
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by tejohnso on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @04:19PM (#28065773)
> Describing FIRE as easy and saying that anyone who fails to do it is somehow less wise or immature is nonsense peddled by a bunch of people who retired early by writing "how to get retire early" blogs.

I haven't heard anyone claiming it's easy or that any failure to do it is due to a lack of wisdom or maturity.

I think wisdom and maturity are required, but that's not all that is required. There's also a fair amount of discipline, and alignment with the tradeoffs, plus a good helping of privilege and luck.

> "Get a high paying remote job from a young age with no student loans, move somewhere cheap, actually find a partner there, don't dare find someone that makes teacher or non-professional salary or has health problems or student loans, wait until you're retired at 38 to have children, don't dare have kids with health problems or special needs, and lecture everyone else about how easy it is." is perhaps not the wise and mature advice you think it is.

That's not even close to what I claimed required wisdom and maturity to realize.

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by hahamrfunnyguy on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @01:48PM (#28064000)
I've always been thoughtful about my spending. I got married 12 years ago and worked while my wife went to school full time. About 10 years ago, I discovered the MMM blog and started making a concerted effort achieve financial independence. I am just about there now.

For me, I didn't feel like there were many trade-offs. The key take-away is prioritizing value and figuring out what brings you joy in life. By doing this, I was able to eliminate a lot of unnecessary spending. I don't feel like I ever missed out on anything.

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by bloaf on Thursday August 05, 2021 @12:03AM (#28069747)
> What happens if you want to buy a condo in a competitive market that requires a 200k downpayment? Or have a medium-sized wedding? Or have two kids in day-care?

If you mean after you retire, you'd plan for those things within your 4% swr budget just like you would if you were making a salary.

If you mean before, then it depends on whether you're planning on getting married annually for the rest of your life, or if it is a one time expense. If it is a one time expense, I'm sure everyone here is capable of doing the math to figure out how much a large one-time expense will delay your retirement. (hint: it is one-time expense / earnings)

If it is recurring, then the math still applies.

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by isthis129283 on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:18AM (#28062009)
You should subtract capital gains.

Unless you know of a way to put $84k/year into a roth account.

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by ryandrake on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:46AM (#28062390)
Disclaimer: I am not a CPA or tax attorney.

As of 2021, a very high income married one-earner household can potentially put away $19.5k/yr pre-tax into a traditional 401(k), $38.5k/yr into a after-tax Roth 401(k) which can be optionally converted to a Roth IRA, plus $6k/yr for both the worker and the spouse into Roth IRAs, plus $7,200/yr into a family HSA (if it's available thru your employer).

That's $19.5k + 38.5k + 6k + 6k + 7.2k = 77.2k tax advantaged. $57.7k of that is not subject to income tax or capital gains upon distribution, as long as you are following the rules. Not too bad.

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by burntsushi on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:52AM (#28062486)
If your retirement income comes entirely from long term capital gains, then the first $80K you sell per year is tax free.
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by trashface on Thursday August 05, 2021 @08:35AM (#28072811)
80K is for married, for single filers its 40K.
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by flowerlad on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:20AM (#28062042)
If you invest in S&P 500 index fund you don't need to sell until after retirement.
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by isthis129283 on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:30AM (#28062171)
I agree.

But a material chunk of the $14M belongs to the government (not available for the individual to spend).

If someone takes out a $2M loan at the age of 58, and retires at 59 (before any of it is paid back), do you think that should be money considered in a retirement calculation?

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by flowerlad on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @11:46AM (#28062381)
Any growth in the "government's portion" is yours until you sell. Also, if you sell after retirement the tax rate is going to be low if you don't have much non-investment income.
Re:Early Retirement (2006) by isthis129283 on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @04:34PM (#28065952)
I agree it's yours until you sell. We are just debating semantics (does retiring with $14M mean retiring with $14M you can spend, or $14M minus taxes that you can spend).

Also, Capital gains is treated differently than ordinary income.

Your income tax bracket is irrelevant in determining your capital gains rate (at least for now).

Re:Early Retirement (2006) by neogodless on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @04:53PM (#28066166)
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-r...

Income tax bracket doesn't directly correspond with capital gains brackets, but total income affects the capital gains tax rate.