They absolutely will not.

Let’s say ~30% of Etsy.com views are through Safari (iOS + macOS; ignoring that Chrome on iOS is a viewframe around WebKit anyway). Of those, 25% have iCloud+.

Let’s say they did this and 50% of people did visit the site through Chrome.

That’s ~4% less revenue for them. I don’t know what Etsy makes per year, but ~4% of whatever that is will be on the order of millions of dollars. So, this is a no-brainer.

This is an interesting breakdown, but here's my analysis:

Let's say that ~100% of Etsy.com views are through Safari. Of those, 100% have iCloud+.

Let's say they did this and 0% of people visit the site through chrome.

That's 100% less revenue for them. Pretty amazing that this one feature could completely kill Etsy's revenue stream.

(For what it's worth, I agree with you that Etsy is not going to tell Safari users to pound sand, but your arbitrary numbers don't make an actual point unless they're based in facts and figures.)

Maybe I’m missing something, but doesn’t your edge case validate my argument?

In other words, your comment reads as “if everyone stops visiting Etsy, then they will make $0”, which…yeah. Makes sense to me.

More like "if I can choose arbitrary values for my variables I can make the equation say whatever I want, regardless of what the real values should be".

This was a better comment than your original sarcastic comment - the internet’s got enough vitriol, please don’t add to it.

Except this formula is exactly how businesses determine what operating systems, browsers, and devices they support are.

They plug the numbers into the formula and see "If we block IE11 users from being able to use the site, we lose 1% of our traffic, which equates to X dollars. Is that a substantial amount? If so, we support IE11, if not, IE11 support goes out the door."

So yeah, you can plug in the numbers you did and try to negate his argument, but that doesn't make his argument wrong. Just means you understand the argument but fail to accept it.

1. It's weird that the values you pick lead to an example scenario where the person you're disagreeing with is even more right.

2. The point of the math was to show that it's a big deal for basically any reasonable values. It doesn't depend on the exact numbers.

You can’t really do that for iOS. Sure, I mean you technically could, but mobile chrome usage is so low that the blowback would be enormous.

Chrome on iOS is also Safari.

Hmm - and alienate anyone on mobile Safari? I doubt it.

And why no one will block the egress IP ranges.

I didn't realize Private Relay was coming to iOS too. In that case, they'll probably push the app :)