China does have climate policy and it’s and issue that they do not ignore. They plant trees at the interface of deserts to prevent their expansion, they produce 80% of the worlds solar panels. China is the world's leading country in electricity production from renewable energy sources, with over double the generation of the second-ranking country, the United States.
China has a lot to lose from climate change. They will see reduced agricultural production from prairie land, in a country of over a billion people. A starving population will not allow the current regime to continue and the Chinese government has every reason to come to the table.
Sounds like you are avoiding the core question surrounding the real issue at hand - China and India are among one of the biggest contributors to greenhouse gas. There is no policy that can change that fact.
That statement is completely false. There are many policies that China and India can enact to reduce production of greenhouse gasses.
- put a price on carbon emissions (ex: California cap and trade)
- put a tax on carbon (ex: Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act)
- provide grants or tax breaks to clean energy projects
Having China and India, being large producers of GHGs, reduce their emissions is necessary but not sufficient to stop further climate change.
Fine, I'll bite. Presume for a second that the partitioning of India didn't end with Pakistan and Bangladesh, but that the entire sub-continent split into 15 odd countries each with the population of Mexico.
Would you still be demanding that just these 15 countries carry the disproportionate burden of solving climate change?
You wouldn't, because is would be painfully, obviously dumb to ignore other similar sized groups of countries (Europe, SE asia, etc.)
India and China obviously emit more, because they are - uniquely - single countries with continent sized populations.
They don't suddenly earn some moral burden for that in an atmosphere that is without borders.
Population size doesn't matter.
China produces 5 times more than India. More than double the US at similiar economic levels.
China is the problem. China is the solution.
China produces more greenhouse gases than all developed nations combined.
Then I assume the west will ensure China has access to any and all technology that they decide they need, when they need it, how they need it, to reduce their carbon footprint.
Because that is what it is going to take.
Do you want to be the person to tell 1 billion Chinese that, no, they can't buy a fridge?
China and India aren't vomiting greenhouse gases just to screw the rest of the world. They're doing it to feed their people and enable them to live their lives.
The only metric that is fair, and countries like China will consider fair, is per-capita emissions. A Canadian can't justify causing three times as many CO2 emissions as a Chinese by virtue of being Canadian alone.
You have the option of either attributing these emissions to the consuming country, or to not do so and hope that it creates a trade-equilibrium as a side-effect, where each country produces within their CO2 limits.
Either way, even though China is a producer country and far from being clean or sustainable, its emissions are still way behind certain large first world countries.
We (that is North America and the heart of Europe save France) really need to make more of an effort, only if to not look like massive hypocrites when we ask China to turn green.
There is a large push towards nuclear within China right now though - with a lot of research coming out of that country as well - they might beat us to the punch anyways.
Rest assured that France is really keen on carbonising its electricity supply and closing a significant number of its nuclear plants, thus going back into the fold of its European neighbours. Stupidity knows no border.
https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$model$markers$line$data$fi...
https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/9/3247/2012/bg-9-3247-201...
The ONLY metric that matters is global gigatons of CO2 emitted per year. This needs to decrease. Playing hand waving games with per capita between countries is pure nonsense and provides cover for emitters.
I wasn't trying to start a comment chain where everyone's comment is prefaced with "You're naive/childish/stupid".
Every country can come up with a list of excuses as to why they should be entitled to produce CO2. At the end of the day we need to start with taking responsibility for our own emissions before we start telling other countries what to do.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/920/idt2/idt2/9cc12cf8-9b60-4f...
Pretending this is exclusively China’s problem when the rest of the world produces 3/4 of global emissions and a significant percentage of China’s emissions are a result of demand from the West, is simply nonsensical.
We will not get out of this by focusing on spinning stats or trying to focus attention on per capita vs. absolute figures. This problem requires collective action.
Simple per-capita emissions unfairly favours those who like to procreate irresponsibly on a resource-constrained planet.
Tell that to the legions of Chinese immigrants who have flocked to Canada in recent years. It happened during the Hong Kong handover too. The Chinese see Canada as the more tolerant alternative to the US. Canada's opinion on China matters because that opinion is shared by the many Chinese people living in Canada. What is naïve is to ignore the family and social connections between the countries.
The Chinese will think what the CCP wants them to think.
I say this as someone who has lived in China and with family in China.
1) Lead be example. If that fails:
2) Import-tax the f@ck out of them, unless they comply with regulations.
3) Goto (1).
So will climate change, and more so.
But I take your point, and I'm not sure of the solution.
The reality here is we can and should use a nearly infinite amount of debt to finance decarbonization. Debt is “borrowing money from the future” and do you think anyone 50 years from now will be saying “I think we should have spent less money on decarbonzing?”, absolutely not. There is no world in which we can muscle the political will to spend that much money today, so for all intents and purposes consider it an unlimited credit line.
Nobody believes this. China has a horrible record when it comes to pollution, and to make the opposite claim is a bit outlandish.
Here’s a question: why does 75% of all Bitcoin mining occur in China[0]?
And regardless - for the sake of solidarity with the developing world I think it must be considered fair that us westerners take a bigger responsibility than developing countries.
There are two arguments here that are both equally valid: 1) This just won't work unless everyone is on the same page, including China 2) This just won't work unless the west accepts an unconditional change of lifestyle regardless of which if any other countries are on board.
This re-hash amongst Western chatty people is well-intentioned perhaps, but the targets really are moving as this debate has not.
action on the ground using the above mentioned fact-based changes is called for now, right?
Indeed. But the major argument against doing anything in the west is still based on the idea that it's futile so long as china doesn't do more.
It’s not. It’s an excuse for doing nothing whilst blaming the Chinese.
What is your proposal or suggestion?
Or are you in a nihilist mood.
This is an important point that more people need to understand. That is, when a country outsources their manufacturing the associated pollution production goes with it.
China et al don't only have cheap labor, their environmental protections are also less stringent. So when, for example, the USA claims it has reduced X or Y it has often simply moved that off shore.
Put another way, that smog in Beijine - that so many in the West are fond of chastising - was Made For America, and others.
This would need a much needed break to our domestic manufacturing that has to compete with this extremely cheap dirty foreign energy.
[0] https://e360.yale.edu/features/despite-pledges-to-cut-emissi...
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
No more of these, please:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27605961
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27567171
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27562660
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27502839
At this point I don't really care that this forum remains an echo chamber - so you won't see me post these comments anymore.
Correct. And to your point, China is building coal plants, not decomissioning them [0].
What people in the West fail to understand is that in order for society to improve (and currently, remain stable), you need cheap, reliable energy. Renewables—seemingly, the proposed alternatives (wind and solar)—are neither cheap nor reliable. They're also dependent on fossil fuels to be produced (and shipped, and cleaned, and de-iced, etc).
One of the best things you can get behind if you really want to see CO2 emissions drop—which, if you dig into the data, a lot of it is based on models, not observations (which are dramatically below the models) [1]—is to promote nuclear energy and domestic manufacturing.
The former is near carbon-free (in operation) and produces ample energy (and modern solutions are both safe and have limited/reusable waste). The latter promotes both national stability (people have jobs) and reduces unnecessary emissions in other countries and for transport of goods.
[0] https://www.canadianenergycentre.ca/commentary-china-is-buil...
[1] https://science.house.gov/imo/media/doc/Christy%20Testimony_...
can you point me to something trustworthy that proves this point? I am not too much into the topic of nuclear energy but the last time I spent a night or two reading up on it the waste part still felt like a huge drawback.
[0] https://www.amazon.com/Power-Save-World-Nuclear-Energy/dp/03...
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RKtIs10R6Q (hosted by the Long Now Foundation)
Though a bit thin on info, this page from the DoE is interesting (links to some more in-depth stuff that I haven't read yet): https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/5-fast-facts-about-spent-....
Re: China, there's clearly not an effort to move away from coal if they're constructing new plants. The percentages may be less, but if the overarching thesis is to limit things that produce CO2 altogether, this statistic is irrelevant when contrasted with their actions.
Coal power plants age. As their power demand has skyrocketed there are currently few 40+ year old coal power stations to be decommissioned. Looking at say 2050 the existing stock will mostly be replaced by whatever ratio they built between 2010 and 2050.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country
Solar in China went from 78 GW in 2016 to 254 GW 2020. The US had 40 GW of solar in 2016 and 75 GW in 2020.
Flip it around, does the US get a pass because they had a lot of really old coal power plants? In the last decade the US built a lot of Natural Gas power plants which sure isn’t as bad as coal, but they are hardly green. We’re falling behind on solar adoption, and wind is only slightly ahead of the global average.
Massive infrastructure changes take decades and we have arguably stagnated.
And you're misdirecting. The U.S. doesn't get a pass. We're arguably one of the biggest targets that everyone points their fingers at (and domestically, shames its own population for relying on those energy sources).
My entire point is that the very things being obsessed over (solar and wind) are simply not feasible at the scale and capacities required to sustain our current civilization. The alternative is either nuclear, or significant population reduction (read: death, or, the logical conclusion of large swaths of humans either being denied access to energy or being priced out).
Like I've said elsewhere in this thread, the problem is less of a moral one and more of a mathematical one. E.g., the best solar panels only have a 20-23% effectiveness rate (https://archive.ph/wip/Vh1Qj). That means they cannot pull in ~80% of the solar power available. Batteries to supplement this mean more not less fossil fuels for production and mining of rare earth metals (and let's not even get into the human rights issues at those mines). Wind mills can't be built with windmill energy (and only work when the wind blows which is too varied to call reliable). Plain and simple: these alternative energy sources are not capable of replacing our existing energy needs wholesale without introducing significant chaos and likely, death.
Anyway, nobody is going to run a major grid on 100% solar power because hydro and wind are cheaper than batteries. But let’s think pessimistic worst case. You want 50% over supply of solar so you never have to worry about long term storage (as in 1/3 of all solar is wasted).
That’s 3c/kWh. Batteries aren’t 100% efficient and degrade with use so let’s say 55% of power is provided directly via solar (much higher demand in day) and 45% of power is provided from solar fed batteries. If 1 kWh from a battery adds 10c the equation it’s roughly 3c + 10c * 45% = 7.5c/kWh.
Which is very close to what base load coal costs except because we’re using batteries which also covers peaking power plants. Frankly coal is only surviving in China because of how long it’s talking to build cheaper alternatives.
Even if we want 50% of our power nationwide to come from solar power, based on your 60 acre model that's still 6,429 of these installations or 385,753 acres (and that's with a generous output estimate of 2.5kWh per panel, per day).
A single 582 megawatt nuclear plant can generate 13,968,000 kWh per day and each one takes up a mile (640 acres).
Not to mention, 60 acres of panels takes a ton of manpower to maintain and keep functional. People, trucks, maintenance equipment, etc.
Keep in mind, too, these numbers are before we introduce everyone driving electric cars (assuming that's an ideal).
As to output per day real world capacity factors for grid solar vary by location but tend to ~30% here’s a 29.7%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Signal_Solar So if a 400W panel averages ~2.9kWh per day 2.5kWh is perfectly reasonable ballpark estimate. Panel density varies but over 2000 per acre isn’t unreasonable as they are tilted. Still let’s use 2,000 or account for access roads etc.
As to nuclear it’s capacity factor in the us ~90% because it doesn’t need to follow the grid. Unfortunately that drops if you want to increase the number of nuclear power plants. France leaned into nuclear, but even exporting a lot of subsidized nuclear still they had capacity factors of ~70%.
By comparison at 2.9kWh per day panel * 2000 * 640 = 3,712,000 kWh per day from solar. Sure it’s less dense but not enough to be particularly meaningful especially as you don’t need access to water. The real difference people care about is it’s vastly cheaper and can actually scale. Try and hit 100% with nuclear and your stuck with sub 50% capacity factors or your need a lot of grid storage both of which dramatically increases the price. To actually be competitive long term, nuclear needs about an 60-80% cost reduction which is frankly never going to happen.
As to EV’s you need more space to park them than to install solar panels to power them. You also need more batteries for EV themselves than you need to backup a solar powered electric grid.
How is being less efficient by ~10,000,000 kWh per day preferred? That's a significant difference in output. You seem fixated on price and are ignoring the reality that solar panels inconsistently generate that amount of energy whereas nuclear is more stable. If climate change is literally going to destroy the world, then cost should be of less concern than "can it give us the power we need while reducing emissions?"
> Try and hit 100% with nuclear and your stuck with sub 50% capacity factors or your need a lot of grid storage both of which dramatically increases the price.
Can you share what led you to this 50% capacity number?
Also, 13,968,000 kWh per day * 70% capacity factor = 9,777,600 kWh so solar only needs 3x to 4x the land. Except, nuclear reactors need land near large bodies of water making that land far more valuable. So because you can’t put a nuclear reactor on the ultra cheap land viable for solar panels Nuclear actually ends up with higher land costs.
The more efficient option—even if more expensive—should be preferred. You may end up getting similar results, but the overall impact of trying to make solar panels play catch-up is more destructive in the long run. And they don't even catch up. By your own math, even at 70% capacity a reactor is 3x as powerful.
And re: the water requirements, those would also be a factor in hydroelectric so it's a moot point (assuming you see hydroelectric as a supplemental form of power to solar).
I've yet to do research into inputs of manufacturing a plant vs solar/wind/etc. so can't give specifics but just in the abstract what you've described sounds more wasteful (and that's if it can be done—there is far less ambiguity with the nuclear option).
As part of being massively more expensive, Nuclear actually involves significantly more indirect fossil fuel usage due to those costs. For example all a nuclear power plants requires onsite fossil fuel generators which need to be run regularly: http://aa-powersystems.com/wp-content/uploads/3061871_OE_Bro... Yet those generators are left off of assessments of CO2 releases associated with nuclear power plants. Similarly the centrifuges reacquired to manufacture nuclear fuel require vast amounts of electricity to manufacture and run. The nameplate generation from Nuclear further ignores those ongoing energy costs.
Batteries simply are not an appropriate solution to the problem.
We would need to make massive investments in high voltage DC lines across the country, dumping tons of CO2 into steel and concrete for rare usage patterns.
This line of questioning was my "mind blow." It turns out, there are technological solutions, but they don't scale to meet demand (and if/when they do, it's inconsistent). And to boot, they're an aesthetic nightmare.
Don't forget about the turtles, too: https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/environm...
It's not a question of morality, but of mathematics. Can we sustainably and consistently produce enough energy using those methods long-term?
If the answer is "no," fooling ourselves into believing it's "yes" for the sake of ego/emotional pacification is setting us up for failure. I do believe the answer may be yes eventually, but on the current doomer timeline (always shifting but afaik the current doomsday is in ~12 years), the answer will remain "no."
Edit: rough solar panel efficiency stats https://archive.ph/Vh1Qj
When two countries are producing the vast majority you are at their mercy. If Canada wants to bully, bribe or shame a country into submission it has to get bigger and have a much bigger army.
On the other hand you can't produce all of your products in China and try to shame when they have higher co2 levels.
In the end anyone who has a cellphone supports climate change.