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Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by TheOtherHobbes on Saturday May 15, 2021 @01:26PM (#27167108)
I'm not aware of any studies comparing the predictive hit rate of astrologers and mainstream economists.

A shame. That could be an interesting study.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by aphextron on Saturday May 15, 2021 @01:33PM (#27167194)
I went on a Tinder date the other day. Totally random, no mutual friends, never met or spoke before. Within five minutes she told me she was a palm reader, so I humored her and asked her to read mine. I was absolutely shocked. The level of detail she went into that was dead on about my past and my personality was hard to explain away. It's of course just cold reading nonsense. But there's something about that interaction that really bothered me, and I can see how less rationally minded people would fall into it. If economics really is just cold reading at the societal level, there's probably something to the idea that preconceived notions can end up determining the course of reality.
Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by bobsmooth on Saturday May 15, 2021 @01:44PM (#27167290)
You're a furry, you like trippy art, you like programming, you like JRPGs and probably played Gaia Online. I got that from a single google search, imagine if I had your real name and a photo.
Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by vincnetas on Saturday May 15, 2021 @02:32PM (#27167690)
Reminded me this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7pYHN9iC9I

"Amazing mind reader reveals his 'gift'"

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by nkrisc on Saturday May 15, 2021 @01:45PM (#27167300)
People think they're special, we're not. Whatever a palm reader says about one person could probably be equally true and accurate for a thousand other people too. There's billions of people in the world, we all have similar experiences, since many of us live in the same countries, in the same cities, with the same culture, and all do the same kinds of things with the same kinds of people.

Obviously I have no idea what she said to you, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are at least 10 other people out there who could have heard word for word the same thing and thought it was about them specifically.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by michaelt on Saturday May 15, 2021 @02:41PM (#27167770)
Why stop at statements that are only true for a thousand people?

Your post tells me you have a dry sense of humour that makes connections quickly, which sometimes leaves you making jokes that go right over the heads of others. That means when the urge takes you, you can be the life of the party - despite the fact you can be shy, especially around new people.

I can also tell you're naturally a bit disorganised - the kind of person who has unsorted photos on their phone, and that you hang onto notes to yourself that are significantly out of date. But you pride yourself as an independent thinker, and don't accept others' statements without satisfactory proof.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by nkrisc on Saturday May 15, 2021 @02:49PM (#27167830)
It is pretty impressive how personal that feels even when it is as broad as it is.

Because you basically did describe me perfectly. Well, me and millions of other people too. Guess I’m not that special after all.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by david422 on Saturday May 15, 2021 @03:23PM (#27168083)
There's a Derren Brown clip where he gets a group of strangers in a room, gets to know them for an hour, and says he's going to give them each a personalized "reading". He takes a few hours, writes up a few pages for each of them and gives them to them.

They read them, and most of them get pretty emotional describing how specific it is to them and how much it's affecting them.

But the trick is, he gives the exact same reading to every person.

We don't see what the reading is, but I've always thought- what if everybody in the room really does share enough human experiences that a reading (somewhat generic enough) really does cover almost everybody in the room.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by graeme on Saturday May 15, 2021 @02:09PM (#27167497)
I had a similar experience with a Santeria Priestess in Santiago Cuba. She had a sign out front and I consulted for a lark, seemed to describe me to a T.

Years later in Boston I saw a sign advertising psychic readings. So I went in and sat for a reading. But with one difference. This time I resolved to make no expression or affirmative commentary whatsoever. I kept a neutral gaze, and at most I would say “I see” if she was waiting for a reply.

The reader was flustered, and nothing seemed accurate. Of course for a true experiment I’d have to go back and visit the priestess, but I suspect she was simply good at reading me.

Note that it isn’t necessarily a useless practice. I believe the priestess picked up on one aspect of my personality I hadn’t noticed. It had stuck out as a wrong description, but years later a major personal experience let me see it was actually quite accurate.

Again nothing earth shattering, I just think she noticed something about me no one had outright said. So, someone skilled in human nature, good at reading people and well motivated could actually provide a valuable service for some people

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by Aeolun on Saturday May 15, 2021 @01:38PM (#27167235)
She didn’t investigate you extensively on Google first?
Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by dkarras on Saturday May 15, 2021 @02:29PM (#27167656)
Honestly, doesn't even need to. Cold reading, barnum effect etc. works really well on the human psyche.
Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by ecpottinger on Saturday May 15, 2021 @01:56PM (#27167381)
Last time someone claimed they had powers I simply asked what colour is the carpet inside my cabin in northern Ontario. Since there is no pictures of the inside after I bought the carpet they had to guess and I was not telling.

It is funny how everyone who I question suddenly starting ghosting me right after.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by teachingassist on Saturday May 15, 2021 @02:19PM (#27167578)
Nobody claims to know what colour your carpet is.

Even in a universe where I did 100% know the colour of your carpet via some form of clairvoyance (which is hardly an economically useful service), I've now understood that you will continue to react with confrontational scepticism.

By asking this question, you have disqualified yourself as a client - not only of services which have no supernatural powers, but also of hypothetical "true" fortune tellers. Expect to be ghosted.

Since I would expect the outcome to be the same in both cases, this doesn't prove or disprove anything to me.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by rcoveson on Saturday May 15, 2021 @02:49PM (#27167832)
Three people claim to be able to predict when and where a solar eclipse will occur. You ask them for their predictions.

The first provides a haiku which they claim encapsulates the point in time and space where an eclipse or other significant astronomical event will occur, insofar as your heart is open to it.

The second replies that they are perfectly capable of doing it, but they believe your request constitutes "confrontational skepticism" and ghosts you.

The other provides a latitude, longitude, and UTC timestamp.

The idea that skepticism is somehow "confrontational" and warrants "ghosting" is a lie propagated for the purpose of blurring the line between real and fake predictive ability. This third type of person does exist; they're not even uncommon. When you encounter types one or two, it's not your fault. They're just the "noise floor" ever present in the search for a good prediction, or a product that does what it says it does. Work around them. Find the third type.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by teachingassist on Saturday May 15, 2021 @03:31PM (#27168155)
> The idea that skepticism is somehow "confrontational"

Your example of skepticism isn't confrontational, in the way that I intended it to mean (as a modifier), because you're reasonably skeptical about what is being directly claimed.

i.e. when someone claims to be able to predict a future solar eclipse, you don't get them to prove their predictive powers by asking them to predict the colour of your new carpet. That would be confrontational. You'd be ghosted, also by the scientist.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by rcoveson on Saturday May 15, 2021 @05:24PM (#27169158)
> Even in a universe where I did 100% know the colour of your carpet via some form of clairvoyance, I've now understood that you will continue to react with confrontational scepticism.

In this hypothetical, you are clairvoyant. This is an exceptional talent; if demonstrably repeatable, it's one-of-a-kind. Somebody asks that you prove yourself as a seer by telling them the color of their carpet. You actually know the color, but you choose not to say because you perceive the challenge as confrontational.

To me, that is not the behavior of an extraordinary individual. It's the behavior of a fraud.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by teachingassist on Saturday May 15, 2021 @06:21PM (#27169543)
> You actually know the color, but you choose not to say because you perceive the challenge as confrontational.

You should choose not to engage (in this hypothetical) because you have better things to do with your talent than spend time engaging with people acting unduly negatively towards you.

It's not fraud, it's normal behaviour - in this universe. It's advice I would give to anyone.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by rcoveson on Saturday May 15, 2021 @06:52PM (#27169707)
The problem is a clairvoyant isn’t anywhere near as useful to me, or anyone, while unproven. Performing a simple controlled experiment is perfectly logical, not “unduly negative”. It’s like auditioning an actor.

I don’t know what “better things to do” you’re imagining a clairvoyant would occupy themselves with before having proven themselves beyond the shadow of a doubt to their clients.

How many times more valuable is the advice of a seer who I know for a fact has “the sight” than that of one who I doubt? Say, if I’m the POTUS or something.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by teachingassist on Sunday May 16, 2021 @06:27AM (#27172642)
> It’s like auditioning an actor.

To analogise this with the original comment in this thread:

"Last time someone told me they were an actor I simply asked them to audition, for a different part, in front of me" - would be more clearly unacceptable.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by rcoveson on Sunday May 16, 2021 @11:54AM (#27174499)
You can’t hold an audition as part of a conversation. A better question in that scenario would have been, “oh, have you been in anything I might be familiar with?”

If you knew the color of the couch, it costs you nothing to blow my mind. You’re crazy if you think the right and normal thing to do in that scenario is to refuse. If you don’t want to be asked to demonstrate an extraordinary power, then don’t claim it in the first place! If I conversationally mention that I can do six figure arithmetic in my head, I fully expect to be asked “what’s 357453/737901”.

I think we’ve lost track of the fact that the first thing that happens in this conversation is somebody chooses to mention that they possess an extraordinary power. One that can be demonstrated conversationally, even.

Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by teachingassist on Sunday May 16, 2021 @05:55PM (#27177371)
Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by rcoveson on Sunday May 16, 2021 @10:56PM (#27179647)
Relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/373/
Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by tedunangst on Saturday May 15, 2021 @02:34PM (#27167704)
What's the overlap between "economically useful clairvoyance" and "true fortune tellers"?
Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by teachingassist on Saturday May 15, 2021 @06:23PM (#27169556)
apologies for lack of clarity - I meant telling you the colour of your carpet, that you already know, is unlikely to be economically useful.
Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by ipaddr on Saturday May 15, 2021 @02:31PM (#27167680)
Is it dark red or a blue with a bit of orange in it?
Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by webreac on Saturday May 15, 2021 @02:20PM (#27167590)
Search about the Barnum effect.
Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by duxup on Saturday May 15, 2021 @01:35PM (#27167217)
Not to get too lost in the weeds but I really never think of economists role as "tell me what is going to happen" as much as " tell me why you think X happened"... I there is a subtle difference there in how sure you can be if it will happen again, why, and so on.
Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by celticninja on Saturday May 15, 2021 @01:30PM (#27167159)
I imagine they are both about the same in effectiveness and that is probably somewhere below a monkey randomly throwing darts at a spinning wheel of options.
Re:I was an astrologer – here's how it really works (2019) by throwaway051521 on Saturday May 15, 2021 @01:54PM (#27167362)
Or political forecasters, for that matter.