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Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by 0x000000E2 on Saturday May 08, 2021 @01:20AM (#27084123)
Most of California's problems go back to lack of housing and opposition to building more. Everyone wants to live in Cali for nice weather and jobs. If you stop people from building more housing your property value just keeps rising.

Property costs are high because NIMBY blocking denser housing. Traffic is bad because housing density is too low for the population. Homelessness is bad because houses are too expensive.

Wildfires and earthquakes are the only problems not self inflicted

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by prostoalex on Saturday May 08, 2021 @03:52AM (#27084917)
> Wildfires and earthquakes are the only problems not self inflicted

Massive wildfires (vs small distributed fires) are the result of the policy framework that (a) prohibits preventative controlled burns (b) requires immediate containment of any new fire. The old (more flammable) undergrowth never has a chance to burn off and free up the space for (less flammable) new generation.

As a result CA is one of the most polluting states in the nation as far as co2 emissions https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-wildfires-ca...

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by blagie on Saturday May 08, 2021 @06:41AM (#27085823)
Erm, no. There's a carbon cycle.

Trees trap carbon. When they die, trees release carbon. Unless you bury dead trees underground (e.g. as paper, furniture, etc., in deep landfills), in terms net amount of carbon capture, there's no difference between a massive forest fire, periodic controlled burns, decay, etc.

They differ in time cycles. Even a sequoia will eventually die and release its carbon back into the atmosphere.

There's this myth that forests somehow reduce carbon in the atmosphere. Left to themselves, they store carbon, but they can't capture carbon. They're carbon-neutral. If you cut them down and release the carbon, you have a one-time emission. If you plant new ones, you have a one-time carbon capture.

The only real net change to CO2 comes from:

1) Extracting dinosaur-era carbon, and releasing it.

2) How we handle our waste. Ironically, composting releases all the plant carbon eventually, while burying it underground stores some carbon away from the atmosphere.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by kewrkewm53 on Saturday May 08, 2021 @07:46AM (#27086241)
This. The most climate-friendly way to handle forests is to actually cut parts of them down regularly (in a sustainable pace, leaving enough unaffected areas for wildlife), and use the wood for building houses and other elements which stay intact long-term.

More buildings should be constructed from wood, less from concrete, which itself causes major co2 emissions.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by prostoalex on Saturday May 08, 2021 @11:05AM (#27087779)
> there's no difference between a massive forest fire, periodic controlled burns,

I believe the way it's performed elsewhere is a controlled burn after the older trees had been felled. The burn is for the undergrowth.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by jessaustin on Saturday May 08, 2021 @06:51AM (#27085901)
This strikes me as a reasonable argument. I wonder why it doesn't work for agriculture, which is regularly criticized for e.g. the carbon in livestock feed?
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by mkj on Saturday May 08, 2021 @08:52AM (#27086704)
The fertilizer is made from fossil fuel gas.
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by pbuzbee on Saturday May 08, 2021 @01:39AM (#27084239)
I agree, I do think building more housing would help. However, my point is that I don't see that happening anytime soon. We've only seen light forms of the policy changes this would require, and many haven't even passed. There's a lot of opposition to these policy changes, and they have money on their side. And even when (if) they do change, it will take some time for them to have an effect.

My age group is at the age of looking to put roots down and have children. For many of us it makes more sense to leave than to wait 10-20 years and hope things get better.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by mavelikara on Saturday May 08, 2021 @03:25AM (#27084774)
> For many of us it makes more sense to leave than to wait 10-20 years and hope things get better.

But most of you don't leave because of family who live in CA - the very people who prevent any fixes to the situation, in the first place.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by codefreakxff on Saturday May 08, 2021 @05:05AM (#27085268)
I’m not sure I understand your statement that traffic is bad because housing density is too low for the population.

Certainly just increasing density with no other controls just increases traffic congestion.

The best approach would be increasing density while decreasing reliance on personal transportation.

https://www.transformca.org/transform-blog-post/our-take-gre...

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by pharmakom on Saturday May 08, 2021 @05:15AM (#27085328)
Increasing density will naturally decrease reliance on personal motor-vehicles because more journeys become walkable.
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by codefreakxff on Thursday May 20, 2021 @10:32AM (#27221583)
I disagree. And I’m thinking of California in particular here. There is FAR too much reliance on personal transportation. It has little capacity to support “just increasing density”. There’s nothing natural about it. It will take a very serious planning effort to transform the state.
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by jjav on Sunday May 09, 2021 @05:05AM (#27094428)
> Increasing density will naturally decrease reliance on personal motor-vehicles because more journeys become walkable.

Only if you don't need to go to work. Which is working wonderfully in pandemic era. I can pretty much walk anywhere I could need in terms of stores and services.

But jobs, unless you work in one of those stores or services, are of course far away, not in the middle of denser housing. Tech company campus won't be between housing rows.

My town has built tons of housing over the last two decades. Offices are still in the industrial campuses farther away and all that new housing means tons of new local traffic. Uncomfortable but true.

It used to be 2 minutes and one stoplight to get to the highway. Now it is 7 stoplights and up to 15 minutes to get to the highway (from the same house).

It would be wonderful if for every new housing block there was an adjacent office complex block, so most people can walk to work, but that's not how it goes. So in practice, yes, increased housing density just means tons new traffic to fight through.

Hopefully I can just remain work from home forever!

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by sokoloff on Saturday May 08, 2021 @06:43AM (#27085842)
This is probably more true than any time in the last 30 years iff remote work takes hold. Previously, it wasn’t near as likely that all workers in a household could for a 40 year career live within an easy walk of their work.

Now it’s possible (maybe) for many more people (although they’ll need larger housing units).

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by chrisseaton on Saturday May 08, 2021 @08:52AM (#27086707)
> personal motor-vehicles

Fancy way to say 'car'.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by pharmakom on Saturday May 08, 2021 @09:56AM (#27087156)
More precise because it includes trucks and such
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by 0x000000E2 on Saturday May 08, 2021 @01:13PM (#27088965)
Forcing low density housing causes sprawl. Look at European cities which generally have cores 5-10x denser than Cali. Most of them have no such traffic problems because you don't have the whole population travelling 30 miles on roads every day
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by codefreakxff on Thursday May 20, 2021 @10:42AM (#27221732)
Yes. But California isn’t Europe. There’s a million factors that led to California, or America as a whole, sprawl. Probably, primarily, land is plentiful and cheap. When it is no longer possible to get cheap land then density will naturally follow.

Take New York as an example. Limited land area. Lots of money. Drove up density and has a low reliance on cars and has an ok public transportation system.

Everywhere else it’s just cheap as hell to buy land and build. California is getting to the point now that some areas are expensive and density is increasing. But its also easy for people to just move somewhere else still

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by ballenf on Saturday May 08, 2021 @05:55AM (#27085566)
Think miles per person per day. More dense means everything is closer.
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by mschuster91 on Saturday May 08, 2021 @06:27AM (#27085743)
Dense housing is only dense housing, if people still need to commute half an hour or more to their workplaces dense housing is only creating traffic issues.

Transport infrastructure (roads, buses, railroads, trams), housing, everyday service infrastructure (supermarkets, medical services, restaurants, haircutters) and employment infrastructure needs to be planned holistically or you're just shifting between problems - in the case of only going for denser housing, you'll lower homelessness a bit but get traffic issues in return.

And on top of that, city planning needs to take entrenched interests into account. Often enough NIMBYist complaints are founded in real fears of exploding traffic or a loss in property value - but these can be counteracted and compensated, if one is willing to.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by newsclues on Saturday May 08, 2021 @07:02AM (#27085967)
Why can’t you have dense office, retail and housing space (can even be in the same building)?

Dense industrial areas are hard

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by jjav on Sunday May 09, 2021 @05:08AM (#27094442)
> Why can’t you have dense office, retail and housing space (can even be in the same building)?

I'd love that too, but it's not happening. FAANG isn't building their new HQ campus into the first floor of a new apartment complex. It'll be where it'll be and we'll have to fight through ever increasing traffic to get there.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by 0x000000E2 on Saturday May 08, 2021 @01:14PM (#27088979)
Dense housing naturally causes businesses to move closer. I don't know of any cities where a dense urban core isn't also filled with businesses and very walkable. It will naturally happen if they allow dense housing
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by jiggliemon on Saturday May 08, 2021 @02:05AM (#27084368)
NIMBYism regarding more housing really only pertains to metropolitan/urban areas. How come the rest of the state can’t build housing consummate to the demand?
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by jjeaff on Saturday May 08, 2021 @03:21AM (#27084759)
I live in a socal suburb and there is plenty of nimbyism. Any new developments take years or get stalled indefinitely as all the nimbys who already own their home show up to complain and block everything at every turn. Because they don't want the traffic to get worse, or they don't want the community to "lose its charm" or whatever else they can think of.
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by bobthepanda on Saturday May 08, 2021 @02:41AM (#27084551)
People want to live near jobs, services and amenities, and diversity of those can only be achieved at scale.

You could build a million homes in the middle of nowhere and you’d wind up with a million empty houses.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by kewrkewm53 on Saturday May 08, 2021 @07:48AM (#27086267)
Many people also want to live in large houses or apartments, which is extremely expensive anywhere with high population density.
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by bobthepanda on Saturday May 08, 2021 @05:33PM (#27090914)
Many people also want to win the lotto.

Even if people are saying this, what they actually do is quite different. People in CA moving out are generally moving into other metropolitan areas or smaller cities. They're not living some kind of Stardew Valley fantasy in the fields.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by prostoalex on Saturday May 08, 2021 @04:02AM (#27084976)
That was the major selling point of the CA high-speed rail when Governor Brown originally put it on the ballot - everyone would live in one of those ever-expanding residential suburbs and then take a quick train ride into a busy urban area.
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by mschuster91 on Saturday May 08, 2021 @06:28AM (#27085752)
Employment. Rural areas don't have much to offer in terms of jobs other than backbreaking farm labor, and Internet access is usually way too underbuilt to support full remote work.
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by 0x000000E2 on Saturday May 08, 2021 @01:11PM (#27088949)
NIMBY is everywhere in California. For being such a liberal state it's crazy how local governments are obsessed with stopping new and denser housing from being built
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by austincheney on Saturday May 08, 2021 @06:35AM (#27085788)
Everybody says that but I have never seen a study indicating increased housing availability reduces housing price. Where I live, growth rate 22% decade over decade for the last three decades, housing prices increase directly proportional to the increase of housing quantity. That is until an area is filled at which point housing values will either skyrocket or flatten based upon desirability.
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by 0x000000E2 on Saturday May 08, 2021 @01:04PM (#27088897)
> That is until an area is filled

Thats the issue with your approach. Supply and demand will cause housing in an area to be knocked down and replaced with denser housing. Townhouses, apartments, skyscrapers eventually.

In some places this natural replacement cycle is feircly resisted and local governments are bent to the will of incumbents.

HN leans heavily liberal but this is one place where conservative "small government" lack of regulations works better. In liberal areas local residents will co-opt the systems for making local regulations to protect their own investments. In conservative areas it's more difficult to NIMBY your way to halt development.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by epistasis on Saturday May 08, 2021 @07:41PM (#27091828)
I agree with most of this, but "Local control" of housing of this sort is generally a conservative phenomenon. However, the bigger effect isn't typical left-right politics but instead the class-divide of homeowners versus renters.

Self-identified liberals are more receptive to nearby apartments than self-identified conservatives.

But the bigger effect is homeowners versus those in apartments. People in apartments are far more supportive of new apartments, and homeowners are less supportive, and this effect is bigger than the political divide.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by joejerryronnie on Saturday May 08, 2021 @11:12AM (#27087838)
You’ve hit the nail on the head here. The desirable parts of CA are located typically along the coast with geographies which don’t allow unlimited expansion (lots of hills/mountains and water). No matter how many houses we build, the desire to live here for the weather/amenities/economy will continue to outstrip supply. Plus, it’s not just housing which would need to expand, it’s transportation, water, etc. There are no easy answers but the solution is not simply “build more housing”.
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by 0x000000E2 on Saturday May 08, 2021 @01:08PM (#27088927)
IMO it's not true. If it wasn't for rampant NIMBY in Cali developers would gladly replace low density housing with skyscrapers.

There's less space but you can always build up. But none of the Cali cities allow this. That's why despite California's huge population you don't see any cities with skyscrapers and traffic is so bad.

Building upwards also solves the transportation issues.

Look at places like Tokyo and Singapore in comparison to Cali coasts. They're are all space constrained but these places managed to fit 20X the people in the same space and they still don't have Cali level traffic problems

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by joejerryronnie on Saturday May 08, 2021 @02:48PM (#27089714)
You could be right about vertical construction lessening the transportation burden, but there’s still the water issue.

As an aside, I came across a Tokyo density map overlaid on a map of CA (Greater Tokyo Area, not just the city of Tokyo) and it would be like taking the entire population of CA and condensing it into the city of Los Angeles.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by epistasis on Saturday May 08, 2021 @07:43PM (#27091839)
What water issue? People are not the problem when it comes to water, the problems are industry, agriculture, large lawns, and old construction.

Water usage in my small, coastal, mountain constrained town has decreased even as population has increased and number of connections to the water system have increased.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by joejerryronnie on Saturday May 08, 2021 @08:19PM (#27092009)
I’d be interested to see your sources and learn how increasing CA’s population will lead to less water usage.
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by epistasis on Saturday May 08, 2021 @08:32PM (#27092076)
Should have included those, apologies!

Check out page two of this PDF for the statewide picture; our use statewide urban water usage is going down, from a peak in 1995, even as our population increases:

https://cwc.ca.gov/-/media/CWC-Website/Files/Documents/2019/...

I first became aware of this when lots of people were complaining about water use for a new apartment complex that included below-marker-rate units, as it seemed preposterous that <100 new apartments could have any significant impact, especially when the alternative is for the same people to live further out in bigger places that need more watering of lawns.

Turns out that our city's urban water use had decreased quite a bit, despite a slowly growing population, as shown on page 25 of this PDF:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/20484267-2020-annual...

There's a lot of really bad and environmentally counterproductive thought from the 1970s that needs to be fact checked. People don't require a fixed amount of resources, they require a fixed amount of services, and we have gotten better and better at providing those same services with far less resources.

This is the same as the hard energy versus soft energy debate from around the same time period. We don't care about total energy available to a person, we care about the services that the energy provides. So things like greater efficiency through insulating homes, switching to more efficient lights, etc, doesn't actually result in more energy usage.

The same surprising (to some) result applies for water, apparently! Swapping out all those old, bad water fixtures, and being better about lawn watering, makes a huge impact.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by joejerryronnie on Saturday May 08, 2021 @10:00PM (#27092492)
Thanks for the reply! More efficient water tech and less lawn makes sense and I look forward to drilling down into the details.
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by ngokevin on Saturday May 08, 2021 @10:15AM (#27087327)
> Wildfires and earthquakes are the only problems not self inflicted

PG&E?

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by raverbashing on Saturday May 08, 2021 @02:08AM (#27084386)
But the funny thing is, the California "countryside" is languishing because of a lack of people/jobs

But instead of going there people prefer the big established cities elsewhere

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by ryandrake on Saturday May 08, 2021 @11:24AM (#27087959)
Someone else said it, but their comment is dead: California is bordered by a state with no sales tax to the north, and no income tax to the east. I would love to move to a more "rural" area if my company ever adopts remote work, but there is no financial advantage to rural CA over, say, rural any-other-state. If I'm going to move to the countryside, far away from my job, to remote work, I'm going to keep driving the moving van to at least cross a border, to avoid all that extra expense.

I've never lived there, but I bet the east and west sides of lake Tahoe have similar quality of life, similar amenities, similar schools, but living just a few km across a border could mean you keep thousands more per year of your compensation.

Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by bobthepanda on Saturday May 08, 2021 @06:29AM (#27085754)
A lack of jobs is usually not considered a positive thing when looking for a place to move to
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by raverbashing on Saturday May 08, 2021 @07:01AM (#27085959)
True. And it's a bit of a catch 22 because even if you have your job, the city might not be good in terms of infrastructure, resources, schools, etc
Re:California population declines for first time in more tha... by akudha on Saturday May 08, 2021 @06:25AM (#27085727)
Any particular countryside town you’d recommend for someone working from home?