I'm not so sure.

Look at the European market: manual gears everywhere. Look at the UK, South African and Autraslian market: the car is inversed, with the wheel on the right.

The car market seems way different than the phone market. It's not an information platform, it moves matter. It's not virtual, it's real. It's not luxury like the phone used to be, people life depends on it already. It's not a free market, but heavily regulated.

And a car is very, very expensive. Second hand is a huge thing. You don't replace your car every 2 years. The market for maintenance and service is it's own industry, and the state is deep in it. Not to mention the the huge quantity of material you need just to build one car.

Finally, if a car fails, a BSOD becomes quite literal.

> Look at the European market: manual gears everywhere. Look at the UK, South African and Autraslian market: the car is inversed, with the wheel on the right.

These aren’t really great examples of marketing to a niche. Automatic transmissions cost more money, so manuals are more popular than they are in the US in every country that has less disposable income than the US. The primary reason it’s so easy to get a left hand drive car in Australia is because the UK and Japan drive on the left.

> in every country that has less disposable income than the US

So you argue almost all country prefer manuals? It's not true at least in Japan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposable_household_and_per_c...

I’m saying it’s quite strongly correlated. From memory the difference in price was a few thousand dollars between manual and automatic. For some consumers that price difference is enough to override other preferences. Some markets have more of those consumers than others, to the extent that an automatic car would be a somewhat uncommon luxury item in a lot of places.

> Look at the European market: manual gears everywhere

Automatic is more expensive. If they had the same price tag then most people would buy automatic in Europe too, because it's more convenient.

If that were the case, you would see most high end cars in France with automatic transmission. It's not the case here. People are quite attached to their manual gear.

Automatic transmission is also seen as more boring, and while professional drivers can get away with using them many people consider you a lesser driver if you don't drive manual.

For the record, I just had a look at the local second-hand market; cars with automatic transmission are cheaper and more available, while the demand for cars with manual transmission is higher.

Interesting - I (British, living in another country in Europe) have just bought a new automatic car, but if I were buying used I would most likely only buy manual because the maintenance and replacement parts for an auto will likely cost much more, and a used car would more likely need these sooner - and be less likely to be covered by any warranty.

These are of course my perceptions; maybe they're correct, maybe not, but I do think it's a common way of thinking.

Obviuosly, some people prefer that (and I guess high end car users like going fast and doing the switching up manually), but others don't. Most people who use their cars mostly in the city where the traffic is often slow, you drive in stop-and-go traffic would prefer automatic to constantly switching up and down.

I am one of them.

I can still start my engine if the battery is dead.

When I rent cars in Europe, I usually get 50/50 manual/automatic.

Hm, is it true that there’s manual gear every where in Europe? I can remember we laughed at the Americans and their automatic gears 15 years ago, but now everyone drives automatic here as well.

Yes the vast majority of cars in Europe are manual, except maybe in the high-end where there are more and more semi-automatics (not the mechanical automatics).

>Look at the European market: manual gears everywhere.

Because "screw the fuel economy I shift when I want" is the only way to have a decent driving experience when you have 1L of displacement responsible for 4000lb of vehicle.

>The market for maintenance and service is it's own industry, and the state is deep in it.

It's pretty amazing the stuff the state trainers have to say about what the state thinks about safety emissions. It's a hot take to say the least.

>Finally, if a car fails, a BSOD becomes quite literal.

This is really over blown. Even "the wheel fell off" type mechanical failures result in the vehicle grinding to a halt, usually making it to the side of the road (AI that thinks a pole is an HOV lane notwithstanding)

I get that the big automakers believe that, and boy are they going to be in for a surprise when the market rejects their plans and foreign/upstart automakers take what little marketshare they have left from the last time they decided they could shove bad products down people's throats. For some reason the automakers lack good product people, and are constantly trying to chase rents rather than compete by producing reliable, affordable, good cars that people want to buy.

All great technology will eventually suck when the masses start using it.