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Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by lazypenguin on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @11:18AM (#26890794)
This article did little to convince me we’re not in a bubble. The housing supply argument doesn’t hold up to me, as older people leave their homes newer people should be able to take there place. Base asset prices increasing because interest rates are down? Sure that’s finance 101. All asset classes (houses, stocks, cryptocurrency) only ever increasing in value? That’s too good to be true.
Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by smalltalks on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @11:26AM (#26890910)
> The housing supply argument doesn’t hold up to me

Strongly disagree with you , I'm in Europe. I'm in the 25% richest of my state , I can't manage to rent a home because every time I contact a landowner for a property to rent there is 30+ person who applied before me within 4 hours...

Covid-19 has created a "remote economy" boom as well as accelerated household project to move to another state and acquire a property or just to invest in real estate.

Thus real estate market is performing just as expected... As long as the supply does not meet the demand the price goes up.

For crypto it's different , 99% of crypto transactions are speculation base. It's by design.

Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by KptMarchewa on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @02:09PM (#26893320)
>Strongly disagree with you , I'm in Europe. I'm in the 25% richest of my state , I can't manage to rent a home because every time I contact a landowner for a property to rent there is 30+ person who applied before me within 4 hours...

Why won't landlords raise prices then?

Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by ChuckNorris89 on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @04:48PM (#26895247)
>Why won't landlords raise prices then?

Rent control?

Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by KptMarchewa on Thursday April 22, 2021 @11:20AM (#26903728)
Then you have your answer why you can't rent.
Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by PragmaticPulp on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @11:41AM (#26891109)
> The housing supply argument doesn’t hold up to me, as older people leave their homes newer people should be able to take there place.

Not only are populations growing, but there is a net migration toward high demand areas.

Look at real estate listings in many smaller Midwest cities and you’ll see large inventories of very nice, very affordable homes. Older people are moving out but no one is there to buy them.

Meanwhile, many popular cities are fully built out. It’s musical chairs with existing housing inventory, plus a few high density reconstruction projects here and there.

We thought remote work would enable people to move away from expensive cities, but it turns out many people choose to live in popular, high-demand areas once they no longer have to live near their office.

As long as supply is fixed and demand continues to grow, prices will go up.

Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by refurb on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @11:49AM (#26891222)
Look at real estate listings in many smaller Midwest cities and you’ll see large inventories of very nice, very affordable homes.

What? No, it’s the opposite. Suburban and rural homes have seen major price jumps in the past year while the most expensive cities have stagnated or dropped. For example Western MI has seen more price growth than the city of SF in the past year.

Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by meragrin_ on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @12:14PM (#26891596)
> Look at real estate listings in many smaller Midwest cities and you’ll see large inventories of very nice, very affordable homes. Older people are moving out but no one is there to buy them.

Not in my small Midwest city. Many houses are being sold in hours. Most of the time I see a new realtor, it is already sale pending. I have little doubt houses are being sold without being put on the market. There are realtors asking around my neighborhood if anyone is looking to sell because they have buyers interested in the area.

Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by kfarr on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @12:22PM (#26891734)
As the others are commenting I half agree with your comment - there is a supply issue in high density areas AND there is a supply issue in low density areas.
Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by sidlls on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @04:03PM (#26894706)
I don't know where you're looking. I'm looking in relatively small midwestern towns (Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota) and I see listing for homes valued 20% greater or more compared with last year. A small four-plex that would have listed at $400k and sold for $380k (or so) last year is likely to have listed over $500k and may sell over-asking this year. It's ridiculous.
Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by beiller on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @12:54PM (#26892195)
But in almost all 1st world countries, the demand is shrinking (negative population growth in all countries). Not to mention the top heavy population in Americas that is approaching EOL (Baby Boomers) which will rapidly shrink the demand in the next 10 years. But it actually appears from sales data that demand is increasing by a great deal. My hypothesis: speculators have been driving this market for quite some time in order to try and escape the inflation they thought "is coming any minute" since 2008.

Here in my city, the rents are decreasing since COVID started and the prices keep skyrocketing. It also supports my hypothesis. Investors are just buying up properties and renting them out, lowering rents everywhere. It may come to a head sooner rather than later, once someone finds the mortgage is way higher than the renter is paying. But even then, I think many owners are willing to take a hair cut on their mortgage because they feel like "the market has performed so well, its worth it". But how long?

Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by ska on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @02:58PM (#26893992)
> (negative population growth in all countries).

This does not seem to be true, most of them have small (< 1%) but positive growth I think.

What were you basing it on? Some of them have negative birth rates, but that isn't the same thing - and to lead to an overall decline in population immigration would have to be reduced by more than the delta.

Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by beiller on Thursday April 22, 2021 @12:13PM (#26904453)
Yeah sorry I meant negative birth rate. But my assumption of negative growth is based on post covid, since border flow is severely restricted and people are just avoiding moving for the last 1year+. So I have assumed negative growth since covid and I have no source to back it up, yet the real estate market hitting record highs in my country, as a kind of hint that the prices are not driven by immigration demand but purely speculation. I would love to see population growth data for the last 12 months. I will look it up.
Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by lotsofpulp on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @11:26AM (#26890907)
> All asset classes (houses, stocks, cryptocurrency) only ever increasing in value? That’s too good to be true.

Not if the supply of money is increasing. Also, different regions of the US are experiencing very different levels of changes in price.

Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by subpixel on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @12:27PM (#26891786)
This is not an article, it is a content marketing piece written by a property developer.
Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by dazc on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @11:40AM (#26891097)
...as older people leave their homes newer people should be able to take there place.

Here in the UK, older people have not been leaving their homes because of covid lockdowns which is one of the reasons why there is a shortage of houses to buy. The one exception is retirement apartments.

Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by zapita on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @11:25AM (#26890885)
Some areas in the country experience major population growth because that’s where the jobs are. In those areas not enough older people leave their homes to compensate for the influx of new residents. It’s not even close.

The housing supply argument is completely accurate.

Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by zepto on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @11:34AM (#26891015)
> In those areas not enough older people leave their homes to compensate for the influx of new residents. It’s not even close.

This is true. The question is, why would they? Generally, with a few exceptions like Florida, the places where the jobs are are also the best places to be old.

Re:Making sense of what’s going on in the housing market by almost_usual on Wednesday April 21, 2021 @11:31AM (#26890983)
Especially in places like the Bay Area where there is a huge influx of global talent.