> who ever bombs the shit out of Great Renaissance Dam is going to be popular in Egypt.

Would they? GERD destruction = tsunami on the nile, possibly setting a chain reaction through downstream dams.

Sisi has now managed to beat even Murbarak on getting the lowest rating on record from any semblance of legit polls done nowadays.

Turkey is all over Ethiopia, and Sudan on top of that. And Sisi has a paranoid fear of Turkish involvement, either back home as a subversion, or a direct attack from Turkish African bases.

Turkey staring Sisi down from all sides is by far a much bigger concern to him than Ethiopians waving their MiG 21s at him.

If he has a gram of gray matter, he will not push Ethiopians further towards decision on Turkish military base.

That is really old news. read the current situation between Turkey and Egypt, which is actually getting better https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-egypt-diplomacy-id...

They face retaliations with the Aswan dam.

Egypt can not use Suez, because the US, Europe and Israel will intervene for sure on that particular case against Egypt and Egypt will lose for sure.

Israel will not intervene because it has a peace treaty with Egypt which is much more important than starting some stupid war on the behalf of foreign countries. Since the war with Egypt in 1956 Israel only had wars with entities which directly attacked Israel and even in 1956 there were some excuses due to attacks by the Fedayun that came from Egyptian area and to the fact that the Egyptian blockaded the entranc to the Israeli port on the red sea.

If anything they will just dig a canal or create some route from Eilat port to Ashdod port and make some profit out of the whole situation.

Egypt doesn't have the capability. Their air force has too little range and too little refueling capability.

Not exactly. in these situations they would bomb the GERD then ditch, out of fuel, in international waters ready to be picked up or in Sudan. It's been done before. For really high value targets range doesn't matter as much.

Which means they couldn't maneuver at all at the attack site, making themselves extremely vulnerable; Furthermore, a dam is an highly fortified target by nature, making serious damage requires very heavy bombs, not sure they could make it even as a one way trip if they are properly armed.

IMHO, most likely result of an attack (for Egypt) is that Egypt loses a part of its airforce in return for temporarily harming Ethiopia's ability to generate electricity at the site. At which point Ethiopia fills the dam anyway and works on repairing the damage, while Egypt wouldn't be able to repeat this.

They could certainly maneuver at the attack site - there is very limited depth for Ethiopian defences as the dam is only ten miles from the Sudanese border.

But yes, the planes would be expendable. That said, Egypt could very well breach the dam itself. It would needs some creative use of munitions but modern munitions are precise enough to allow for breaching of dams.

That was the case before they bought the Rafale from France I guess

Why bomb a damn when you can hack it.

i dont think boombing the dam is a popular thing in egypt