Honestly a fight with the us in the Indian ocean is not what they have to worry about. They have to worry about pirates attacking their tankers and stealing oil. They have to worry about iran going to war with saudi arabia (or in the shorter term, iran hijacking chinese flagged tankers coming from saudi arabia or vice versa -- like already happened this year except with south korea). They have to worry about belt and road policies making yellow people (I'm yellow and sadly afraid to visit africa for fear of being mistaken as chinese, e.g. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52805202) resented across africa and all of their middle management exploiters getting murdered by locals with african governments turning a blind eye because they know that debt forgiveness is around the corner.
They don't have much oil, and their economy will be crippled to a standstill.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d8/China_Oi...
Any sources?
There's a lot of analysis out there on Chinese food security, the TLDR is grain production is ~95%, but a lot of it goes towards animal feed. It's around 1000lbs per capita. In terms of crude, China only produces ~4M barrels per day, imports 10M. But the entire US military consumes 300k barrels per day for much broader portfolio. Other resources, only ~30% domestic self sufficiency in iron ore for steel production, but that's still ~300Mt which is ~60x total USN displacement. More or less everything else it stockpiles or can produce enough domestically for military needs, because relative to Chinese production the military doesn't actually use that much resources. All this is to say China is not Japan, it can't be "starved" into impotency, a blockaded China can not only sustain current military, but expand it by multiple folds on her own.
In a naval embargo scenario, why wouldn't China simply get its oil from Russia? Delivered over land.
Russians? IDK. It won't be their war. And the oil wells of Russia are rather far from China border, in pretty inhospitable Siberia.
Sure it is more expensive than getting it by oil tankers. But possible. And it would be cheaper than the US cost of doing a naval embargo.
A similar lookup gives that the largest tanker trucks can carry 176 barrels of oil.
So that would, if all capacity was by truck (I know it will not be) over 43000 truck loads pr day over very bad road conditions.
So multiply that 43,000 by 14 to 42, or more, and you're within a factor of ten of all (~16M according to Google) commercial trucks in the world, of which only some fraction are tanker trucks.
Have you not noticed that there is a 1Trillion development contract with Iran and that there isn't a single Muslim country that has a beef with China's Uighur policy? Also Xinjiang is an oil and gas and generally natural resource rich area. Another reason why China won't give it up. Same with Tibet actually.
China has actually been filling up with Oil by bartering without actually processing the customs required. So technically the oil never transferred ownership to China and therefore its not in breach of sanctions but for all practical definitions the Oil is now in Chinese hands as reserves.
There's also that tiny detail that when China started their nuclear weapons program, Taiwan also had one and that the USA used their global influence and the CIA to shut it down. The reason the power balance is in shambles is that the US focused very strongly on keeping its allies weak and now its coming back to bite everyone.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502
EDIT:
Analysis: Iran slips record volume of oil into China, reaches out to Asian clients for trade resumption
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-asia-analysis-id...
Nuclear deterrence won’t work at that scale it’s also why Israel is worried about an Iranian bomb.
Deterrence works when both sides are at least somewhat equal in size and population, China can take 100’s of nukes and still survive in some form or another you ain’t going to kill 1.5 billion people, Taiwan on the other hand is an island that can be taken out in a single strike.
I suspect the Chinese leadership aren't that crazy, and if Taiwan had nukes, China would not invade.
China would invade well before Taiwan gets to the point of second strike capability and even a proper first strike.
Taiwan can be essentially evaporated in a first strike, there will be little to no advanced warning and unless they station their nukes off the island they will never be able to build a sufficient deterrence.
That is, yes, Chinese nation won't be obliterated; most people would survive. But the resulting chaos would be nothing like the country before that. It would be up for grabs for the strongest local groups, and whatever international / foreign forces which would inevitably come with humanitarian aid.
Most importantly, the powers that be can't hope to retain the control of the country, to say nothing of their own quality of life (and maybe the life itself).
This is why nuclear deterrence works.
Getting to one nuke sure maybe, getting to dozens warheads you claim are needed and the 100’s in reality that would be needed, a robust delivery system and a first and second strike capability... are you kidding me?
Nuclear deterrence works well with near peers, it doesn’t work when one side can’t take a single hit and the other can.
It may describe Taiwan as an allied but in reality they are just a piece on the chess board of varying importance.
In the 80es mainland China was a key pawn to be played against the Soviets.
Today containment of China is the big goal. And Taiwan plays an important role in preventing Chinese access to the pacific, and also in the US China tech war.
But ultimately it may be sacrificed (again).
To say nothing of not buying the inexpensive goods made in China anymore.
But they are pushing their economy towards renewables, and by the 2040s the majority of China might be powered by alternatives to oil, leaving them enough to keep their military going without disrupting manufacturing.
Pipelines also have the added bonus that if the US tries to sabotage them, they've just attacked a bunch of neutral countries. Not a good look.
Granted they just used Bulgaria’s airspace but the feeling was “we don’t give a F*ck what you think, deal with it”. Bulgaria is now _in_ NATO itself, but it wasn’t back then. There was a strong pro Russian (anti Nato) sentiment and I think that war in particular showed a lot of people what a precarious geopolitical position that actually was.
Also, China is in bad terms with almost every other neighbor it has (territory disputes with almost every one).. and they will be glad to see it humbled a notch or two and will not help.
Besides that, they're not going to need most of that oil in ~20 years.
Quick question: what has happened to China as a result of what they did regarding the pandemic? Millions of people just died, along tens of trillions of dollars in economic destruction. They lied about the pandemic, they hid the outbreak as long as they could, they're still hiding information about its origin and the early days. Barely anyone even cares to dispute that, they all just shrug about it. Where are the sanctions? Where's the blockade? Right. Nobody dares. Barely so much as a squeak in their direction. If I'm China I'm starting to ask: well then, what else can I get away with so easily?
Let's see here. They don't care when I enslave 500,000 people to pick cotton. They don't care when I commit cultural genocide and put millions of people in camps. They don't care when I violate prominent international agreements at will and strip Hong Kong of all of its rights. They don't care when I support a military dictatorship and coup in Myanmar. They don't care when I prop up and enable a crazy nuclear dictatorship in North Korea. They don't care when I destroy Tibet and culturally strip the entire nation. They don't care when I annex territory the size of France - from numerous of my neighbors - in the South China Sea by military force. And so on. (and before anyone bothers, that I pointed out these facts about China doesn't simultaneously imply the US is The Good Guy, I'll save someone that logic failure)
But oh boy, the world is suddenly going to care about Taiwan as China begins their annexation formally. The buck stops there, no doubt about it. Un huh.
Before another 10-15 years goes by they're going to have the world's most powerful military overall (they'll still lag in tech in some areas). It's exceptionally obvious. The US can't afford to continue its global projection, it's rapidly weakening (courtesy of the extraordinarily stupid decisions it has made fiscally over the past 20 years), and China is just beginning its global projection phase; one will contract, one will de facto conquer the world. The pandemic helped tip the US over fiscally into a more rapid downward spiral, it pulled that future forward by a lot.
Have you seen China's export machine during the pandemic? They took market share. They've become far more potent economically while their competitors have been severely weakened. As a future bet, who's taking Boeing versus China at this point? Intel & Co. vs China's future in semiconductors? The US is in a very bad position.
Within that 15 year span of time China will be sailing aircraft carriers past Hawaii and off the Pacific US coast, as a show of force, which the US will be entirely unable to stop.
I've rarely seen anything more obvious geo-politically than what is about to happen regarding China. Asia is theirs, absolutely nothing can stop that outcome. They'll even compete toe-to-toe in Latin America for influence, right in the US backyard (as we have been doing in their backyard for so long). The best the US and its allies can hope for is to hold some political & economic ground in Asia and not be entirely neutralized in the region.
The age of the American superpower is over. Act accordingly. The only thing the US is good for now is resource - wealth - extraction, while it lasts (debased by the minute). Then, afterward, get out while you can. Go somewhere nicer, somewhere sane, somewhere with a functional government, a decent culture, a future of prosperity and reason - that isn't the future of the US.
- China exercise an EPIC lockdown to counter the pandemic.
- The West: This is anti-human!
- China actually contained the pandemic.
- The West: They're hiding the real numbers!
- China: Have you considered the possibility that the lockdown really worked?
Remember that there are two other large navies in the area that are hostile to china (india and japan, both who have significant blue water navies)
Anyway, if WW3 really happens, hard to say which side they'll choose.
This seems like the sane approach for China.
How long will it take China to build its navy to the point it can defeat the US fleet?
What are the chances that a provocation by either side will lead to confrontation before this point?
Will the US and its allies attempt to make war before China takes the lead?
The PLAN is growing fast. Its size has tripled in the last 20 years, and right now it has more warships than the USN. The average size is smaller, but the goal is 400 ships by 2025. Having a big commercial shipbuilding industry helps. The US no longer has much of one; China has a large one.
China's third aircraft carrier is under construction. The first carrier was a refurbished Russian one. The second one was an improved version of that. The third one is comparable in size to a US carrier but without nuclear power. The next generation may have nuclear power. That's expected later in this decade.
China has a substantial truck-mounted land-based missile capability for sinking ships in areas offshore of China. This is a serious threat to USN carrier groups.
Building a navy that can project power that far is no task that can be done quickly.
Still, the US could easily run "inspections" of its own on Chinese oil tankers in the Indian ocean. That's why I'm convinced that the ultimate confrontation between China and the US over Taiwan won't happen anywhere near Taiwan at all. Rather, China will delay until they can fight the US Navy in the Indian ocean.