US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross Straits Invasion

Re:US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross S... by echelon on Monday March 08, 2021 @02:10AM (#26383009)

> Rather, China will delay until they can fight the US Navy in the Indian ocean.

This seems like the sane approach for China.

How long will it take China to build its navy to the point it can defeat the US fleet?

What are the chances that a provocation by either side will lead to confrontation before this point?

Will the US and its allies attempt to make war before China takes the lead?

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Re:US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross S... by Animats on Monday March 08, 2021 @02:35AM (#26383129)

How long will it take China to build its navy to the point it can defeat the US fleet?

The PLAN is growing fast. Its size has tripled in the last 20 years, and right now it has more warships than the USN. The average size is smaller, but the goal is 400 ships by 2025. Having a big commercial shipbuilding industry helps. The US no longer has much of one; China has a large one.

China's third aircraft carrier is under construction. The first carrier was a refurbished Russian one. The second one was an improved version of that. The third one is comparable in size to a US carrier but without nuclear power. The next generation may have nuclear power. That's expected later in this decade.

China has a substantial truck-mounted land-based missile capability for sinking ships in areas offshore of China. This is a serious threat to USN carrier groups.

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Re:US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross S... by dnautics on Monday March 08, 2021 @02:54AM (#26383231)

Suppose china shoots a usn carrier. The entire south china sea becomes a hot zone, and commercial shipping stops for months, maybe a year. Then what. The chinese people starve. Not a good plan, if you ask me.

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Re:US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross S... by Animats on Monday March 08, 2021 @12:49PM (#26388941)

China COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited is the largest bulk carrier in the world. China can handle their own food imports in their own hulls. The biggest item is soybeans from Brazil. China buys food from the US but does not have to.

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Re:US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross S... by hollerith on Monday March 08, 2021 @05:32PM (#26392561)

The mere fact that China owns enough merchant ships to import what it needs is far, far from being the pivotal factor if China ever finds itself in a war with the US.

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Re:US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross S... by msh on Monday March 08, 2021 @02:56AM (#26383243)

But the land based missiles will only do limited good. What if india with US understanding (india have had several wars with china) decides to intercept oil tankers in the indian ocean that are going to china?

Building a navy that can project power that far is no task that can be done quickly.

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