US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross Straits Invasion

Re:US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross S... by dogma1138 on Monday March 08, 2021 @03:25AM (#26383383)

The US shutting down the Taiwanese nuclear program wasn’t them keeping their allies weak, it was them saving them from an invasion and us from a nuclear war.

Nuclear deterrence won’t work at that scale it’s also why Israel is worried about an Iranian bomb.

Deterrence works when both sides are at least somewhat equal in size and population, China can take 100’s of nukes and still survive in some form or another you ain’t going to kill 1.5 billion people, Taiwan on the other hand is an island that can be taken out in a single strike.

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Re:US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross S... by leereeves on Monday March 08, 2021 @06:35AM (#26384633)

That seems quite insane: "100 million Chinese people might die if we invade Taiwan, but those are acceptable losses."

I suspect the Chinese leadership aren't that crazy, and if Taiwan had nukes, China would not invade.

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Re:US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross S... by dogma1138 on Monday March 08, 2021 @11:46AM (#26387844)

The point is that people assume that nuclear deterrence can be achieved by snapping fingers.

China would invade well before Taiwan gets to the point of second strike capability and even a proper first strike.

Taiwan can be essentially evaporated in a first strike, there will be little to no advanced warning and unless they station their nukes off the island they will never be able to build a sufficient deterrence.

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Re:US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross S... by nine_k on Monday March 08, 2021 @08:51AM (#26385679)

It only takes a dozen good megaton nukes to destroy, say, 80% of Chinese industrial potential, which is concentrated in a few large cities. A lot of population is also concentrated in a few major cities, especially the most educated and qualified population. (Same applies to US, Russia, and many other countries.)

That is, yes, Chinese nation won't be obliterated; most people would survive. But the resulting chaos would be nothing like the country before that. It would be up for grabs for the strongest local groups, and whatever international / foreign forces which would inevitably come with humanitarian aid.

Most importantly, the powers that be can't hope to retain the control of the country, to say nothing of their own quality of life (and maybe the life itself).

This is why nuclear deterrence works.

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Re:US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross S... by dogma1138 on Monday March 08, 2021 @09:01AM (#26385798)

So now we are jumping to megaton nukes? You do realize that the current Minutemen warheads in the US arsenal are ~300kt each right? Most nations don’t have multi megaton nukes standing at the ready, and Taiwan could never get to that point in the first place.

Getting to one nuke sure maybe, getting to dozens warheads you claim are needed and the 100’s in reality that would be needed, a robust delivery system and a first and second strike capability... are you kidding me?

Nuclear deterrence works well with near peers, it doesn’t work when one side can’t take a single hit and the other can.

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