Seeing as you mentioned Threema in the same post, I think I ought to step in here.
The encryption protocol for Threema is open source, using standard algorithms, not something they invented.
You, like I did for $my_org, can write your own software to send messages to devices running Threema using the Threema API.
Message contents are, of course, encrypted before submission to the API. Threema provide a number of SDKs to help you, but you are under no obligation to use it, you can write your own API submission client from scratch.
P.S. Not saying Wire is bad here. Wire is good. I use it alongside Threema myself for $other_uses. But I'm saying don't write off Threema under a false understanding that their encryption protocols are closed source.
Afaik Signal doesn't have an API or SDK, there only seem to be third party implementations for bots.
China can move fast for this reason too.
You have to decide if the long term consequences of a fast moving dictatorship are worth giving up the freedom of a sometimes messy democracy.
The internet is too important to herd all our services into control of dictators, no matter how benevolent.
We survived the dialup days for all the UX hell of many providers without giving AOL exclusive control in spite of them having the best UX.
I hope we can do the same with something as critically important as worldwide internet communications, but the marketing of dictators and their ability to move quickly is sometimes too hard to resist until it all backfires spectacularly.
I'm not buying it. Look at Matrix and tell me it's holding them back.
What's holding them back, perhaps, is not having a shitton of money in the bank like Signal, and they're actively supportive of decentralization which costs developer resources. Signal (or Matrix, for that matter) could not spend dev time on decentralization and just let the open source community do its thing. But that's not what Signal is doing, they're instead actively hostile towards it.
Or look at Telegram, they have an open network and third party clients. There also are unofficial clients that some people use. But what does the 99% use? The official clients. Signal's argument is that people might use insecure, unofficial clients. In practice, that's not what your average mom will do. (And it's not as if the official Signal app was audited either.)
I'm also not buying the "China can move faster" thing. They can be more oppressive without consequences, but is that really better? Does that "centralized dictatorship" allow them to be "more stable"? It's easy to say, and easy to see how indeed an oppressive government's decree can change things from one day to the next, but on that scale I think you need to consider more things than I am qualified to do before you can really say whether that is a superior system in a given situation.
I guess we conclude the same thing in the end, though, as you say "The internet is too important to herd all our services into control of dictators, no matter how benevolent."
The main argument against federated protocols playing well with security is that they have a harder time evolving. The example always given is email. Once Matrix has reached 500M users and several server implementations with less than 20% market share each, how can you be sure that it will keep improving contrary to email protocols? WhatsApp switched to E2EE in a matter of months, but most of our emails are still plaintext on the servers.
I like and use Matrix as a replacement for IRC, but I don't think they will catch up in terms of security with Signal in most practical situations (meaning, I want to send a message to a non-technical person). Both because of the fossilization associated with federated protocol (see above), and simply because developing a federated protocol is way harder and less forgiving than a centralized one.
Your argument about the "99% use" means that first that you don't need centralization if it's already centralized in practice, and second that it brings very little benefit (benefits only 1% of users). At that point, the (possibly low) costs of decentralization are not worth it.
Do you mean better privacy than Signal? I was under the impression that Signal was significantly ahead of Wire in this regard with features like private groups and private contact discovery.
They pinky swear they always patch and never dump keys when they have the chance though.
It's more of a trust thing than something you can technically solve while still having features like real-time calling. Hence Facebook being objectionable despite having encryption.
Usability is slightly different, yes, and you might also trust Signal more because they do better PR (they say outright that they're from the USA and get money from Facebook, while Wire has devs in Berlin and claims to be a German company, while taking money from USA investors... which imo comes down to the same thing), or you might trust Wire more because they were actually audited at all.
I do use Signal and Telegram with some friends, I really find the difference between WA and Signal to be small. Telegram though is a lot nicer as a platform, it has some channels I'm part of and the desktop client is much better. But this comes with privacy/security trade-offs as mentioned in this thread.
I also use Element.io for some channels and groups. I find it surprisingly nice. I may set up a server myself soon.
Honestly, Signal is just super high quality when you take into account how privacy focused it is, I could easily replace WA with Signal, apart from "the network effect".
Indeed, if it has to go through my phone it's nigh unusable in my opinion. Wire and Element/Matrix handle this properly since they don't depend on a phone number in the first place (so no need to tie it to your phone), only Signal and Threema are somewhat of a pain in this regard since you need to link it, and only Threema absolutely requires your phone to be online all the time.
I ended up adding a paragraph about it anyhow but that's why, when starting to write the post, I didn't add Telegram to the list. There is also rocket.chat further down that I didn't mention on top, fwiw.
The most mature app is Signal. It has the best usability to privacy trade-off.
Threema is the better choice if you don't mind not having a usable desktop client. For me that's a total deal breaker. It costs a one-time 5 bucks and it's totally worth that, if only it had so much as a usable web client (you need to open your phone and navigate two menus to enable the web client every time your phone changes WiFi or anything).
Wire is the better choice if you can sacrifice a tiny bit of usability for better privacy. It's sluggish is all, and (like Signal and most other services) uses AWS. Full disclosure: I was involved in a paid audit of Wire so I know more about the encryption protocol than I do about the other clients'.
Element/Matrix is the better choice if you'd rather make a trade-off towards privacy. Presumably the clients will mature, and between two years ago and one year ago they've made good progress. It's going less fast today but I still see things getting slowly better, and the decentralization works very well and fairly easy to setup.
If all you really want is a better privacy policy and want to ensure people stick around and don't uninstall it, Telegram is by far the usability winner and has a large network effect already. But it's a trade-off with the devil because there is zero encryption. They could ransom or sell our chat logs any time.
Briar and Jami have limitations that make it unusable for general purposes use with your mom. Facebook and Google's messengers I didn't look at for obvious reasons. Keybase was never end to end encrypted to begin with and now Zoom bought them so they'll probably shut down soon (also, bugs).
Rocket.chat seems only aimed at business users.
You can also do OTR over any platform you like, and I still have to try this overlay encryption system on Android (I forgot its name).
Pick your poison...