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Re:The Plague Year by anonunivgrad on Saturday January 02, 2021 @06:09PM (#25617505)
It became a point of civic religion to believe that the virus was catastrophically dangerous. Disagreement was not just mistaken but evil.
Re:The Plague Year by api on Saturday January 02, 2021 @06:48PM (#25617829)
Catastrophically? Not quite, but it is definitely dangerous. We are approaching the per capita domestic death toll of a world war. It ain’t airborne Ebola but it isn’t harmless, a hoax, or “just a bad flu.”

A mask is such a cheap and trivial precaution I don’t get the resistance. Masks are not even close to 100% effective, but the goal is to shave as many points off the viral R-factor as possible.

As for police state tactics, I don’t think they’d be considered if people were just smart and took precautions. They’re on the table because too many people insist on refusing to do simple things.

Re:The Plague Year by mindslight on Sunday January 03, 2021 @10:07AM (#25622150)
The best explanation I've heard is that mask resistance is more of a political statement against economic shutdowns. Which is understandable, but ultimately a red herring that detracts from a productive political movement forming around the real issue of the rent treadmill. eg Restaurateurs don't actually want to be open for indoor dining right now, they're just forced to by an economy which has been warped to prioritize "growth" metrics above human concerns. But the political machine has gone to work telling them the pandemic is a hoax, and with that assumption it must be the response that is to blame. Somehow herds of people always end up running in the wrong direction.

As for general questioning, yes in the abstract everything should be questioned. But when most of the people raising questions seem to be acting in bad faith, then eventually the questions they're asking are going to be reflexively rejected. That creates an irrational blind spot for sure, but that's still a smaller rationality disruption than letting the bad faith questioners continue to destroy the discourse. Given the way herds work, I definitely agree that there could be something wrong with the specifics of the mask consensus. But my general prioritization heuristic asks why that would be someone's focus when there are significantly more pressing issues. And so any argument has a very high bar to clear, probably to the level of conclusive studies showing mask wearing is actively harmful, and not just simple conjecture on the mechanics from first principles.

> As for police state tactics, I don’t think they’d be considered if people were just smart and took precautions. They’re on the table because too many people insist on refusing to do simple things.

This is the real pisser. Being a libertarian myself, it galls me how much damage has been done to freedom, supposedly in the name of freedom. Allowing a pandemic to spread unchecked, meaning I need to treat everyone I come into contact with as potentially infected (including wearing a mask in my own house as I've got healthcare visiting), has been a grave damage to my freedom. I can only conclude the covidiots see "freedom" as the ability to behave like spoiled children, rather than the opportunity to make responsible choices.

Re:The Plague Year by anonunivgrad on Sunday January 03, 2021 @11:08AM (#25622550)
It sounds like you’re not really a libertarian then. Fwiw, this consequentialist (rather than deontological) view of libertarianism that you’re espousing is what turns libertarians into either liberals or conservatives.
Re:The Plague Year by mindslight on Monday January 04, 2021 @10:27PM (#25641712)
I wouldn't say I made a consequentialist statement at all, besides the obvious truism that actions have consequences. In the presence of force majeure, natural rights inevitably take a back seat. Ergo if we care about natural rights, then we should be interested in heading off catastrophes that diminish them, ideally by making responsible individual choices.

Public figureheads preaching harmful nonsense that leads herds of people to harming themselves and their communities is about as far from the enlightened-individual libertarian ideal as possible.

Re:The Plague Year by adolph on Sunday January 03, 2021 @12:53AM (#25619842)
It is an interesting thought experiment. If caloric restriction and sleep hygiene increased more quality life years than masks, would you support the police raiding people's refrigerators and monitoring bedroom activity?
Re:The Plague Year by api on Sunday January 03, 2021 @03:12PM (#25624802)
Failure to do those things may shorten your life, but it does not risk mine. Failure to wear a mask increases viral R factor and endangers others. The moral case for enforcing pandemic control measures is a lot stronger than the case for mandating seatbelts.
Re:The Plague Year by cartoonfoxes on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:22PM (#25618077)
What do you mean by resistance? Does a simple question qualify as resistance? I'd settle for a reasonable answer from my local health authority on how something like a non-medical cloth mask, or a dentist's earloop mask is supposed to do anything if it also can't keep out saw or grinder dust.

I distrust magic, and I dislike the cognitive dissonance that comes with trying to do as I'm told while being denied basic information about the value of that behavior.

Re:The Plague Year by mcguire on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:49PM (#25618247)
"Effectiveness of Cloth Masks for Protection Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus"

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-0948_article

Re:The Plague Year by cartoonfoxes on Saturday January 02, 2021 @08:15PM (#25618406)
Thank you for this article.

I have read the article. It's mostly a comparison between medical and non-medical cloth masks, in addition to reviewing basic properties and measures of effectiveness for masks in-general.

Until a cloth mask design is proven to be equally effective as a medical or N95 mask, wearing cloth masks should not be mandated for healthcare workers. In community settings, however, cloth masks may be used to prevent community spread of infections by sick or asymptomatically infected persons, and the public should be educated about their correct use.

This may well be true. The basis for such a distinction would be a deep point and counter-intuitive. I'm not sure it's present here, though. There is very little on the absolute benefits or effectiveness of non-medical masks. Here's what I could find:

Participants made masks from different materials, and all masks tested showed some ability to block the microbial aerosol challenges although less than that of medical masks (11). Another study found that homemade cloth masks may also reduce aerosol exposure although less so than medical masks and respirators (12).

and

Cloth masks can be made in large quantities in a short time. They can be reused after being decontaminated by various techniques, ideally washing in hot water with soap. Other methods or products include using bleach, isopropyl alcohol, or hydrogen peroxide; autoclaving or microwaving; and application of ultraviolet radiation or dry heat (16).

Also from this article, which are relevant to claims that mask-mandates have zero cost:

The general public should be educated about mask use because cloth masks may give users a false sense of protection because of their limited protection against acquiring infection (16). Correctly putting on and taking off cloth masks improves protection (Table). Taking a mask off is a high-risk process (34) because pathogens may be present on the outer surface of the mask and may result in self-contamination during removal (31).

Re:The Plague Year by shadowprofile77 on Sunday January 03, 2021 @10:14AM (#25622184)
>As for police state tactics, I don’t think they’d be considered if people were just smart and took precautions. They’re on the table because too many people insist on refusing to do simple things.

What an absurdly twisted bit of authoritarian reasoning. The very point of a free society is that you should be able to refuse certain things without being forced into them for the act of refusing.

Re:The Plague Year by anonunivgrad on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:14PM (#25618023)
Death counts don’t tell you much. If the main effect of the virus is ultimately to advance a bunch of older people’s deaths by a year or two, then it’s not a big deal. People live and people die, that’s life.
Re:The Plague Year by mcguire on Saturday January 02, 2021 @08:06PM (#25618359)
"We estimated roughly 1.2 million YLLs due to COVID-19 deaths." ("for the period 1 February 2020 through 11 July 2020.")

https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/article/42/4/717/5901977

"Deaths among adults 65 and older accounted for 80% of excess YLL in April but only 36% of excess YLL in June. Since April, working age adults 20-64 have accounted for 47% of excess YLL, and males 20 to 64 have contributed 34%."

https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-...

Re:The Plague Year by anonunivgrad on Sunday January 03, 2021 @12:31AM (#25619760)
YLL is an interesting metric but deceptive. As the article says, about 80% of deaths have been in the 65 and above bracket.
Re:The Plague Year by adolph on Sunday January 03, 2021 @12:47AM (#25619813)
Wouldn't YLL be a better measure between pandemics? Lets say pandemic A kills 100 humans at 25% of life consumed versus pandemic B that kills 200h at 75% of life consumed. If only lives are counted then B is 100% worse. But if the human-years are measured then pandemic A is 50% worse. Given a zero-sum trolley car dilemma, is plain lives or YLL a better measure of utility?

For example, if a person dies at age 50, and life expectancy at age 50 is more 25 years, then the YLL is 25. In contrast, if a person dies at age 80 and life expectancy at 80 is 2 more years, then YLL is 2.

https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-...

Stipulation: if the baseline life-length is 80 years and a ninety year old dies, then the YLL is 0 and not -10.

Re:The Plague Year by IfOnlyYouKnew on Sunday January 03, 2021 @06:00AM (#25621049)
> Stipulation: if the baseline life-length is 80 years and a ninety year old dies, then the YLL is 0 and not -10.

No, of course it isn't.

A 90-year old isn't expected to instantly die. They have some remaining live expectancy, maybe two or three years, even if they have passed median live expectancy.

Re:The Plague Year by cartoonfoxes on Saturday January 02, 2021 @06:21PM (#25617624)
I can echo this. Most unhappily, I think I may have just estranged myself from my father after an evening of trying to defend my questioning of the value of non-medical mask mandates. Some people want police-state style intervention, and to hell with anyone who raises an eyebrow.

clarification for the downvoters: questioning in the sense of asking a question, not engaging in anti-mask advocacy. Sorry if not being a blindly obedient serf makes me evil. Should I kill myself now and save you the trouble of forming the firing squad?

Re:The Plague Year by rorykoehler on Saturday January 02, 2021 @06:36PM (#25617749)
I don't understand any anti-mask protest despite any claims of lacking scientific backing because why not? Just wear a mask. It's practically free to do and if it makes people feel safer then that is a good enough reason alone. All this arguing on details of how effective they are misses the point completely.
Re:The Plague Year by orangecat on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:02PM (#25617935)
It's way beyond masks. It's shutting down schools (mostly fine for upper-middle class types, potentially crippling for the less well off), wiping out small businesses, and forbidding any semblance of normal social life. Minimizing this as "just masks and social distancing" hugely underestimates the costs.
Re:The Plague Year by rorykoehler on Sunday January 03, 2021 @06:02AM (#25621059)
If everyone wore masks and took social distancing seriously then we’d long have seen the back of the virus. All my friends in Singapore, China and Taiwan are already living normal lives again. All this pandemic has done is revealed the flaws of hyper-individualism. I have much less respect for my fellow westerners and even some old friends after this experience. Just a childishly pathetic way to approach life and society.
Re:The Plague Year by mcguire on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:32PM (#25618138)
It's only killed 0.1% of Americans, after all.
Re:The Plague Year by IfOnlyYouKnew on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:21PM (#25618067)
Good thing nobody is allowed to play soccer right now, considering all the goalpost-moving going on.
Re:The Plague Year by doliveira on Saturday January 02, 2021 @06:55PM (#25617878)
It should be a no-brainer if it weren't for some particularly dumb politicization of the issue.

We aren't gonna get proper RCTs and hard evidence any time soon. But it's such a simple and plausible intervention, we do have good reasons to believe they help and they don't hurt anyone. It's all just so infantile

Re:The Plague Year by NickNameNick on Saturday January 02, 2021 @08:20PM (#25618436)
How do you even run a randomised controlled trial of mask usage?

What's the double blinded placebo for a mask?

Assuming you could even get an ethics committee to sign of on the experiment.

I agree the data could be helpful, but I don't think that's the 'right' way to get it.

Re:The Plague Year by cartoonfoxes on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:07PM (#25617969)
I agree that it's a simple and plausible intervention. What do you think about gloves, goggles, and tyvek suits?
Re:The Plague Year by doliveira on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:37PM (#25618174)
I'd suggest you to physically make a chart of convenience, likely protection, availability, plausibility, ease of implementation and a few other dimensions for masks and the other instruments you've mentioned. It might help you to see the absurdness of these comparisons.
Re:The Plague Year by cartoonfoxes on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:52PM (#25618270)
Those were simple and plausible suggestions, and yet (intentionally) absurd. You invoked costs, benefits, and tradeoffs to make that fact clear. And for what it's worth, gloves still meet the criteria - simple plausible low-cost is not the same as evidence-based. Health authorities (in Canada) most certainly were suggesting we mitigate indirect-contact transmission, with regular sterilization of surfaces using bleach being widely advocated. Gloves are widely available both in their medical and reusable cloth versions, and carry even fewer risks to social disruption than do masks.

I'm totally fine with the structure of the argument with respect to mask mandates as it's typically made. Assuming no costs and at least some benefits, sure, I don't see a problem - this is within basic morality territory so far. But if the parameters are in question? My datapoint: mask mandates have effectively destroyed a familiar relationship, because it put me in the position of asking a good-faith question to a zealot. I judge the costs to me to be extremely, life-changingly high while the benefits remain uncertain.

Re:The Plague Year by u801e on Saturday January 02, 2021 @10:18PM (#25619056)
There's a reason why passenger vehicles don't come equipped with roll cages, 5 point harnesses, and why there's no law mandating that motorists and their passengers wear crash helmets.

Simply put, a 3 point restraint that's much easier to put on provides a decent amount of protection in the event of a crash. On the other hand, if one is engaged in motor sports, racing, etc., then the other safety measures are necessary. Just like one would use additional safety measures when working in a healthcare setting.

Re:The Plague Year by palestine-tree on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:43PM (#25618204)
If those things are free - if there's a chance I'm saving someone's life by wearing them - then I'd be a monster to refuse because it's inconvenient to me.

I'm guessing you have an equally ridiculous slippery-slope follow-up as well?

Re:The Plague Year by irq11 on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:07PM (#25617974)
It isn’t free. Among other things, “making people feel safer” can easily have the consequence that they stop doing the things that actually matter. It’s called “risk compensation”.

Arguing that this isn’t a significant risk just begs the question: without positive data for effectiveness, nobody has any idea.

Re:The Plague Year by anoncake on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:35PM (#25618163)
If wearing a mask was free for everyone, obviously no one would be bothered by them. Just because you don't understand people's reasons it doesn't mean they don't exist or are less valid than making people feel safer. Consider, for example, people with claustrophobia.
Re:The Plague Year by mcguire on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:41PM (#25618198)
A list of scientific backing: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-scien... (see "Human Studies of Masking and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission").
Re:The Plague Year by cartoonfoxes on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:46PM (#25618228)
Thanks. This is literally more than I've seen published from my local government in a year.
Re:The Plague Year by cartoonfoxes on Saturday January 02, 2021 @06:56PM (#25617882)
>It's practically free to do

The social costs are nonzero, so I wouldn't say it's free.

Re:The Plague Year by anonunivgrad on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:11PM (#25617999)
Making people think they are safe is not sufficient reason to force everyone to wear a mask. It’s only justified if we have good reason to think they work.
Re:The Plague Year by doctor_eval on Saturday January 02, 2021 @07:47PM (#25618236)
> Sorry if not being a blindly obedient serf makes me evil.

But aren’t you actually agreeing with the US federal government’s actual response? Aren’t the people saying that you should wear masks the ones going against the grain here?

Doesn’t that make _you_ the obedient surf?

S[n]ide note: I live in Australia so I have no skin in this game. Along with NZ, we’ve had very few deaths from CV19 relative to large cities in the rest of the Anglosphere, and our economies are basically open. I suppose the “police state style intervention” you speak of did reduce our short term freedom - we had 3 months of hard lockdown - but I’m writing this from our summer holiday beach AirBNB, and it sure feels like freedom to me.

Re:The Plague Year by cartoonfoxes on Saturday January 02, 2021 @08:18PM (#25618426)
I'm not American, so I'm not really that up on the US federal government's response.
Re:The Plague Year by doctor_eval on Sunday January 03, 2021 @02:47AM (#25620311)
Then why did you accuse others - or perhaps just your father? - of being “blindly obedient” about masks?

Blindly obedient to who?

Re:The Plague Year by doliveira on Saturday January 02, 2021 @06:50PM (#25617840)
So you want to wait until we get a series of proper RCTs?
Re:The Plague Year by cartoonfoxes on Saturday January 02, 2021 @06:54PM (#25617866)
The vitriol I hear on this topic never ceases to amaze me. I never said anti-mask advocacy, neither did I state I wasn't in compliance with the aforementioned mask mandate.
Re:The Plague Year by adolph on Sunday January 03, 2021 @12:57AM (#25619857)
Disagreement was not just mistaken but evil.

Isn't that always the case though, particularly with politics and operating systems?