Re:The Plague Year
by anonunivgrad on Sunday January 03, 2021 @12:31AM
(#25619760)
YLL is an interesting metric but deceptive. As the article says, about 80% of deaths have been in the 65 and above bracket.
Wouldn't YLL be a better measure between pandemics? Lets say pandemic A kills 100 humans at 25% of life consumed versus pandemic B that kills 200h at 75% of life consumed. If only lives are counted then B is 100% worse. But if the human-years are measured then pandemic A is 50% worse. Given a zero-sum trolley car dilemma, is plain lives or YLL a better measure of utility?
For example, if a person dies at age 50, and life expectancy at age 50 is more 25 years, then the YLL is 25. In contrast, if a person dies at age 80 and life expectancy at 80 is 2 more years, then YLL is 2.
https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-...
Stipulation: if the baseline life-length is 80 years and a ninety year old dies, then the YLL is 0 and not -10.
Re:The Plague Year
by IfOnlyYouKnew on Sunday January 03, 2021 @06:00AM
(#25621049)
> Stipulation: if the baseline life-length is 80 years and a ninety year old dies, then the YLL is 0 and not -10.
No, of course it isn't.
A 90-year old isn't expected to instantly die. They have some remaining live expectancy, maybe two or three years, even if they have passed median live expectancy.
https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/article/42/4/717/5901977
"Deaths among adults 65 and older accounted for 80% of excess YLL in April but only 36% of excess YLL in June. Since April, working age adults 20-64 have accounted for 47% of excess YLL, and males 20 to 64 have contributed 34%."
https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-...