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A comment on FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization. Parent comment

Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by CobrastanJorji on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:44PM (#25364612)
I've been giving the wrong answer to "Should I buy Bitcoin" since 2011 or so. I was bearish on Amazon when its stock was at 60 because its P/E ratio was ridiculous. I've learned to just be comfortable with the fact that I'm wrong a lot.
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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by TylerE on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:59PM (#25364854)
You're not necessarily wrong. It's a long held truism that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by dllthomas on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:07PM (#25365007)
If you're right about what the market should, rationally do, and it does something else, you were still wrong.
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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by dllthomas on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @06:24PM (#25366954)
I think I successfully communicated, and I'm getting upvoted, but my wording was imprecise. Would that I could edit to add: "[...] if you thought that is what it would do."
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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by chillacy on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:01PM (#25365879)
Either one is right or the market is irrational? Seems like by that logic one can never really be proven wrong.
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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by TylerE on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:14PM (#25366010)
You can be right, the market can be wrong, and then the market can crash before you can exit the position.

Imagine, for instance, trying to get actual USD (NOT USDT!) for BTC when that fever dream ends.

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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by ric2b on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @06:20PM (#25366898)
You can get USD for BTC right now, you've been able to get if for nearly a decade and there have never been as many reputable exchanges as there are now.
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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by TylerE on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @06:30PM (#25367026)
The exchanges tend to "go down for maintenance" on any big price swing.
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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by mthoms on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @07:32PM (#25367786)
Evidence? I've been in crypto a long time and have never experienced this.

I'm not saying it's never happened, but implying it's some sort of repeating pattern is simply false.

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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by mthoms on Thursday December 10, 2020 @01:32PM (#25376771)
You said they "tend go down for maintenance" on "any big price swings" but were only able to muster one example of one exchange going down "for maintenance" on one price swing (Bitfinex).

The others, as the articles point out, were trade volume related (which is also a problem, but much less sinister).

There's no evidence this is some kind of grand conspiracy like you implied. There's plenty to criticise in Crypto, but little evidence for what you actually claimed.

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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by TylerE on Thursday December 10, 2020 @01:42PM (#25376875)
You're moving the goalposts. A day when everyone is trying to get their "money" out is the definition of a high volume day.
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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by mthoms on Thursday December 10, 2020 @06:54PM (#25380437)
No, I'm not challenging the premise, I'm challenging your framing.

Your comment implied sinister intent: That exchanges go offline at key times in order to scam people.

No evidence was provided of that. The sources you provided point to technical problems that are perfectly understandable during a massive, unpredicted surge in such a technically complex field.

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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by TylerE on Thursday December 10, 2020 @09:41PM (#25381633)
There is a long history of exchanges explicitly scamming people.

Way beyond giving them the benefit of the doubt at this point.

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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by zelly on Thursday December 10, 2020 @12:43AM (#25370224)
there is no end. crypto will continue to swallow up all the world's capital and you'll be furious at how many leading zeros there are in your BTC-priced paycheck.
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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by zelly on Thursday December 10, 2020 @12:37AM (#25370192)
that's just delusion and cope. if the price keeps going up for years, then no matter what you think you're wrong. the market isn't being irrational, you are.
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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by hawk_ on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:49PM (#25365715)
If you're consistently wrong there's alpha even in that, just doing the opposite would work wonders.
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Re:FTC Sues Facebook for Illegal Monopolization by Calamity on Friday December 11, 2020 @01:05AM (#25382829)
hahaha, don't sweat it mate. I'm right along there with you. I was surrounded by people dropping buckets of cash for GPUs back at the dawn of deep learning and was therefore naturally tempted to buy Nvidia's stock price (30$ at the time). In the end, I shied away due to the high PE too.

I take solace in the fact that some of biggest regrets or mistakes that Warren Buffet & Charlie Munger say they have made are those that you don't see - the deals they could have done but didn't and, in retrospect, should have.

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