There is a delusion that we can simply shut everything for ever and there will be a) no consequences, b) continued compliance.

Indeed, I feel compliance where I am is fairly low, already. Yes, people largely follow the rules, but they are looking for every loophole they can find, and they are completely ignoring basic things like physical distancing and limiting the number of people they interact with.

It's worth remembering that the original lockdown models always factored in a certain amount of non compliance, and afterwards the model makers expressed suprise that real levels of non compliance were significantly lower than expected.

Non compliance concerns are often a social group function or a side effect of anxiety. it's normal for humans to identify enemies and other groups to make them feel better.

A spectral enemy that one can blame for the bad things.

I wouldn't be surprised if the UKs behavioural modification experts know and use this too.

It would have worked if one acted earlier. Then lockdown would have lasted shorter and more moderate restrictions could have been put in place which people could more easily follow.

Ofoten The problem is authorities come with too draconian restrictions too late rather than coming with milder restrictions earlier.

You’re right, and it’s frustrating that this discussion is often framed as a binary choice between lockdown and back to normal.

IMO what we really need to be doing is looking at making lasting changes to society to keep things working safely. We’re seeing a little of that, but not nearly enough.

The first lockdown was april and may, easing in june. The number of people unable to see their friends for six months is not very high.