Btw, that's not me arguing against electric vehicles. They are absolutely fantastic. I think in the next ~10 years everyone who can aford one and has a place to charge one should get one. There will be a massive shift towards them. I just don't see a total ban in 2030 to be necessary -the market will shift towards electric anyway, but if you are in a situation where an electric car just doesn't work for you for whatever reason, I don't see why you shouldn't be able to buy an ICE car. Especially since I imagine they will start being in minority by then, so their impact will be smaller and smaller every year. With a total ban you aren't solving the situation for people who can't work around the limits of an EV - you're just making them pay higher and higer prices on the second hand market for existing ICE cars(as pre-2030 cars are meant to be allowed for as long as they work).

I would also prefer a very strong carbon tax (or something similar like cap-and-trade) over a blanket ban on specific products, but I'm not sure it makes much difference in practice. Isn't forcing people to pay more on the second hand market more-or-less equivalent to adding a tax?

And, eventually, you'd need the number of ICE vehicles to be low enough that ubiquitous gas stations won't be economically viable anyway.

two words: public investment

Norway has already shown the road to getting to mostly EVs. It costs money. But they can easily ban ICE cars because they've put their money where their mouth is.

Look, we're all trying to do something for the future, we're on the same boat. But you can't just simply waltz to mankind and actively make their lives measurably more miserable 'because future and polar bears', suck it up. People will react very negatively and you will lose the cause, maybe for good. In next elections some populist will win and revert any progress (I believe I don't need to put names here, do I).

It literally doesn't matter that everybody on Hacker News would agree with this, HN is definitely not a representative sample on many topics.

If you think mankind is smarter, look at politics of lately, look at covid-related deniers, folks rejecting masks due to some wacky conspiracy, 5g/chipping and so on and on.

Forcing folks like this while we give places like China, India or other polluters a free pass? Not only are people expected to pay the bill (research, transition), but it literally won't matter on global scale that they do.

> But you can't just simply waltz to mankind and actively make their lives measurably more miserable 'because future and polar bears', suck it up.

It's not for the polar bears, it's for us. Massive droughts and rampant storms are going to be far worse than needing to charge electric cars.

What is your alternate plan? I would love to have a less disruptive path forward.

UK going away from fossil fuel-powered cars will not affect climate change in any mesurable way. The way to go forward is to get everyone (or at least a majority of countries) to agree on a reduction program. Otherwise, UK's population will suffer for nothing.

Funny, one thing one hears in these discussions in Germany is: reducing the amount of CO2 emitted in Germany isn't affecting climate change in a measurable way. Now replicate this in most other countries... One has to start and other nations are going to quickly join in.

Yes it will, because the UK is hosting the United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2021 at which a lot of vital decisions will be made or ratified.

By the same logic, we shouldn't spend money on the police to investigate murders in $TOWN because even if we did, it wouldn't down the global crime rate all that much.

That's really not analogous at all...

Where is the negative externality in your example?

I think you are correct and the responses are missing the point. But I don't think a petrol ban is forcing people to do anything. If it really would negatively individual transport, there would be a huge backlash. But I think the scenarios are realistic enough so it doesn't come to that.

Switching to electric cars will make the life better for most of us. Even ignoring the fight against climate change, they don't emit bad smelling and most importantly toxic exhaust, create much less noise. In most cases, they drive way better than ICE cars.