It actually is winter in half the world and it's as bad as everywhere else. Makes me think weather doesn't play a factor, just people and the degree of protection they collectively take.

Problem is in Winter you also have normal flu season, pressure on hospitals is higher, etc.

The reason the UK locked down was to "protect the NHS". The lockdown worked - dramatically, spread was cut to almost zero overnight, the extra hospitals that were built weren't needed.

> Problem is in Winter you also have normal flu season, pressure on hospitals is higher, etc.

Right, but the point is: Australia etc. are in winter. Right now. We have that data; there's more to the world than just the top half.

(Incidentally, COVID precautions appear to be working well on flu, too. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-measures-have-all-but-...)

Australian winter is hardly the same thing as a European or worse US winter.

Sydney's temperature tomorrow is a high of 17, low of 10.

Glasgow's temperature tomorrow is a high of 19, low of 10.

Australia is more than just Sydney, and the Southern Hemisphere has more than just Australia.

It's plenty chilly in southern Chile.

As for Austrialia, Melbourne's high today is 16, Perth 21, Brisbane 21, Hobart 15, Adelaide 16.

NZ - Christchurch 12C, Wellington 15C, Aukland 16C.

South Africa, Cape Town high of 19, Joburg high of 18, similar to Glasgow in Summer.

South America? Yes it's chilly in Southern Chilie. There's barely anybody living there. Same in Argentina - Ushuaia has a population of 130k and a high of 6C today. Arkangel is 3 times the size and has an average high of -9C in winter. Fairbanks population about 100k and high of -17 in the winter.

The population south of Viedma, Neuquén and Valdivia (highs today of around 13) is well under 3 million, with towns mostly less than 100k.

Santiago's high today is 33. BA has a high of 15. That's not the same as a northern winter.

Compare with Beijing, population 20 million, average highs of 2C in winter. Chicago, 1C, 9 million. Moscow -4C, 12 million.

Comparing a Southern winter with a Northern winter is disingenuous - it's milder, there's far fewer people, and far smaller cities with far lower density.

There's no link between absolute temperature and temperature dependent diseases (or at least for rhinovirus which is the most studied).

Instead, the replication of rhinovirus depends on if the air temperature in the nasal cavity is above or below 33-35C[1]. The winter in most temperate regions gets low enough to trigger that.

[1] https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/01/02/1411030112

Current high temps is a weird focus. (Hobart gets pretty chilly in winter; I've personally experienced snow in Ballarat. Meanwhile, in snowy upstate NY, I've also personally experienced a 70 degree F Christmas Eve. Temps vary!)

The key point is this: Australia's winters get cool enough to have a distinct cold/flu season every year.

Yes, I specifically meant "worse in the US." I should have been more specific.

That's been my hunch too. It's going to be a dark winter.

This is what worries me. Although I would imagine that if that was the case we might be seeing it in the southern hemisphere already.

FWIW it is getting worse just now in the south of Brazil, where we have colder winters.

I always think of Brazil as hot and humid but I have never been there. How cold does it get in southern Brazil? I also never realized how large some countries are as far as population.

We've had -3ºC these weeks, which is about as cold as it gets here. It snows in some regions but it's a bit rare, once in a year in some places, once in a decade in others.