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Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by toomuchtodo on Friday June 12, 2020 @03:31PM (#23502787)
Some citations for your thesis below. To your last point, IMHO, you're going to continue to see a decline in the total fertility rate (US is roughly ~1.77 this year, lowest on record) as women shift from casual seeking in their 20s to relationship/nesting in their 30s and find the market for partners to be much smaller than they would've anticipated, while also nearing the end of natural fertility (fertility rates start to drop ~35 years old) [1].

> As I stated previously the average female “likes” 12% of men on Tinder. This doesn't mean though that most males will get “liked” back by 12% of all the women they “like” on Tinder. This would only be the case if “likes” were equally distributed. In reality, the bottom 80% of men are fighting over the bottom 22% of women and the top 78% of women are fighting over the top 20% of men. We can see this trend in Figure 1. The area in blue represents the situations where women are more likely to “like” the men. The area in pink represents the situations where men are more likely to “like” women. The curve doesn’t go down linearly, but instead drops quickly after the top 20% of men. Comparing the blue area and the pink area we can see that for a random female/male Tinder interaction the male is likely to “like” the female 6.2 times more often than the female “likes” the male. [2]

> The researchers determined that while men’s sexual desirability peaks at age 50, women’s starts high at 18 and falls from there. [3]

> “The age gradient for women definitely surprised us — both in terms of the fact that it steadily declined from the time women were 18 to the time they were 65, and also how steep it was,” said Elizabeth Bruch, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Michigan and an author of the study. [3]

[1] https://www.acog.org/patient-resources/faqs/pregnancy/having...

[2] https://medium.com/@worstonlinedater/tinder-experiments-ii-g...

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/15/style/dating-apps-online-...

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by starpilot on Friday June 12, 2020 @03:45PM (#23502979)
Check out some of the women's dating subreddits. The magnitude of sexual activity reported there is staggering.
Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by celicaraptor on Friday June 12, 2020 @04:04PM (#23503247)
Care to share a link?
Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by harambae on Thursday June 18, 2020 @10:13PM (#23570334)
which ones?
Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by GuiA on Friday June 12, 2020 @03:38PM (#23502877)
> you're going to continue to see a decline in the total fertility rate as women shift from casual seeking to relationship/nesting in their 30s and find the market for partners to be much smaller than they would've anticipated

These women tend to be wealthier on average, and thus have access to various “artificial” methods for conception. Egg freezing is becoming mainstream.

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by toomuchtodo on Friday June 12, 2020 @03:40PM (#23502900)
True, but there's not that many as a percentage of their age cohort [1], and egg/embryo freezing combined IVF is no guarantee you can carry a fetus to term [2]. Maybe you can afford a surrogate (~$30k-120k depending on the arrangements), but the math continues to work against you as you age. This is the unfortunate medical reality, that you can buy possibilities but not guarantees. The amount of wealth you need to "hack" a family together (biologically and a support system after birth) in older age is significant.

[1] https://socwomen.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/fact_2-2010-...

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/art/artdata/index.html

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by eigenvalue on Friday June 12, 2020 @03:42PM (#23502934)
Not only that, but your risk of having a child with autism supposedly increases by more than 3x.
Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by nradov on Friday June 12, 2020 @04:04PM (#23503234)
Apple and Facebook now offer egg freezing as an employee benefit.
Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by downerending on Friday June 12, 2020 @09:37PM (#23505886)
That's almost freakish. Better to offer a quality of life than lets employees have families.
Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by toomuchtodo on Friday June 12, 2020 @04:05PM (#23503259)
I would very much be interested in stats on employees who use this benefit, and if they're unable to have kids in the future regardless of having their eggs frozen, regret their decision to prioritize their career over starting a family.

We had a friend over to our home, who earlier in life judged my partner for leaving a career to have children, and could not have a child of their own now. The regret during our conversation was palpable while she watched our children play in our backyard, and frankly it hurt my heart.

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by michaelmrose on Friday June 12, 2020 @04:08PM (#23503302)
Maybe tinder isn't reality and many in fact most people meet each other outside of tinder. 78% of women aren't actually chasing the top 20% of men and are in fact available to meet outside of hook ups on tinder.

Reducing women to vaginas on legs that can't be obtained outside of tinder is a big part of why 1/3 not 80% of men aren't getting much play.

For other contributing factors I would look at generational differences in socialization and inequality.

Nowhere on the radar is "hypergammy" a piece of incel lingo not spoken but suggested.

Honesty I'm surprised to read this thread on hacker news instead of reddit.

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by CameronNemo on Friday June 12, 2020 @04:58PM (#23503826)
>maybe ... many in fact most people meet each other outside of tinder

Evidence shows that online dating is immensely dominant.

https://news.stanford.edu/2019/08/21/online-dating-popular-w...

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by jfkebwjsbx on Friday June 12, 2020 @07:10PM (#23504844)
Tinder is definitely real and used by the majority of young people living in big cities. I am in my late twenties and all my friends, male and female, used it at some point or another.

Whether people use it to find relationships is a different question. I did not use it for that, but some of my friends did... (or tried...)

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by onetimeusename on Friday June 12, 2020 @05:11PM (#23503966)
The study didn't say anything about Tinder.

However, your theory doesn't hold up. The study found that men who had part time employment, no employment, or were students were more likely to be sexually inactive. There isn't any data that suggests that those men are only using Tinder and failing or anything else you described.

If you define inequality in terms of employment or wealth, you may be right, but that does indeed still suggest the culprit is hypergamy actually as women select men with better employment prospects.

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by michaelmrose on Friday June 12, 2020 @05:28PM (#23504100)
Women wanting a man with a job that pays enough not to live with mom isn't "hypergamy". The literal problem you are naming is inequality wherein an increasing minority can't afford a decent life despite working. It's not a defect in female choice its about the bottom 1/3 sharing a single digit percentage of the wealth and income. Females aren't all chasing the top 20% rich tall guys they are all chasing someone high enough on the fiscal totem pole to have something which is a lot broader than 20% and leaves 1/3 hung out to dry not 80%.

Female choice is rational our society is not. We cannot fix anything if we cannot even identify the problem.

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by onetimeusename on Friday June 12, 2020 @05:45PM (#23504242)
That still is hypergamy. You are just stating that women have preferences. That is exactly what hypergamy means. That women have preferences that suit their own tastes. That is their prerogative.

What is not true though is that this is entirely an economic problem. If it were entirely economic, then why did sexual activity decrease for men but not women? Is that because men gave up? Are men disproportionately likely to self sabotage? Are men disproportionately likely to suffer from economic inequality than women? Do men not care about economic status in partners but women do?

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by michaelmrose on Friday June 12, 2020 @06:14PM (#23504443)
It disproportionately effects men because it's much more acceptable for a lower status women who is at least somewhat physically attractive to set up shop in a higher status man's life than vice versa.

Furthermore men value youth far more than women do so a only moderately physically gifted 20 year old might be valued over her counterpart a dozen years older and twice as well off herself.

Young poor females are in a much better position to leverage their looks and youth.

Basically men pick boobs and youth and men pick status and ability to support and you have somehow identified the women as the parties making an irrational choice and labeled this hypergamy.

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by seppel on Friday June 12, 2020 @08:08PM (#23505288)
> It disproportionately effects men because it's much more acceptable for a lower status women who is at least somewhat physically attractive to set up shop in a higher status man's life than vice versa.

But it doesnt add up. Given that most relations are monogamous, both have as much sex as the other in a relation. So you either need a very high relationship turnover rate or sex outside of the relation to have this sex imbalance between genders.

Or maybe you need a very high age difference.

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by michaelmrose on Friday June 12, 2020 @10:00PM (#23506053)
Incomplete data doesn't need to line up especially when that data never supported 80% of men chasing 20% of the women in the first place. It supported 33% of young men being abstinent and a lesser number of females which is perfectly reasonably congruent with women getting involved with the remaining 67% of younger men and older men.
Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by onetimeusename on Friday June 12, 2020 @06:28PM (#23504534)
No, for the record I didn't use any judgement.

I also didn't say that men didn't have preferences either.

I don't think there is any disagreement so the word 'hypergamy' shouldn't be a dirty word.

However, I think the people expressing concern about female hypergamy are saying the same thing you are but that for men they might have broader taste and for women more narrow and that may lead to situations where vast swaths of men are un-dateable. I don't have any opinion on that scenario. I don't know much about it.

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by michaelmrose on Friday June 12, 2020 @10:25PM (#23506186)
Lets see how people use the term starting with websters and moving on.

Definition of hypergamy

: marriage into an equal or higher caste or social group

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hypergamy

Here is how people actually use it online

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=hypergamy

> The tendency for women to deceive men and leech money and resources off them.

> An evolutionary psychology theory that beta males and feminists refuse to look at or even acknowledge exists. They will usually blame the MGTOW and MRA community for making it up, but that just shows their lack of research, even though these same groups will tell their detractors and opponents to "do your own research" or "educate yourself". The theory itself is the study that women seek higher status men and men with more resources to give her seed to the best possible mate. There is nothing inherently wrong with this, but left unchecked can cause societal problems.

> Evolutionary Psychology theory on the instinctual desire of humans of the female sex to discard a current mate when the opportunity arises to latch onto a subsequent mate of higher status due to the hindbrain impetus to find a male with the best ability to provide for her OWN offspring (already spawned or yet-to-be spawned) regardless of investments and commitments made to a current mate.

If good looking poor chicks and middle income+ chicks of all degrees of attractiveness want middle income+ men with acceptable social skills then poor men or people with bad hygiene, and or social skills will be left with the poor and unattractive portion of that Venn diagram.

Whats more the intersection of physically unappealing and poor is a much smaller group than JUST poor which is HUGE so not all of them will likely find mates.

If you want to bring up why don't the poor but reasonably attractive dudes just interact with the more financially well off females this certainly happens but it is a MUCH less successful strategy for a man.

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by michaelmrose on Friday June 12, 2020 @10:02PM (#23506066)
Men with no money are undatable. Inequality leads to a much larger share of people whose financial resources are woeful.
Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by thrwaway69 on Friday June 12, 2020 @05:22PM (#23504036)
I am not surprised given hn is like the top 1% of the global population.
Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by troughway on Friday June 12, 2020 @04:36PM (#23503656)
>Maybe tinder isn't reality and many in fact most people meet each other outside of tinder. 78% of women aren't actually chasing the top 20% of men and are in fact available to meet outside of hook ups on tinder.

No, Tinder is reality. It's naive to believe that just because it's a platform that facilitates communication and hookup that it's somehow disconnected from reality in it's own little microcosm or niche.

All Tinder does is reflect human behavior. Between Tinder, OkCupid and N other apps you have more than enough data needed to draw some very damning conclusions. Way beyond "more than enough", actually.

People who reject reality and live in their own little fantasy worlds will find themselves in for a bad surprise when they come to.

I mentioned this in a post further below - this is not new knowledge. Long before online dating apps, in the 90s, there existed alt.seduction.fast newsgroup that outlined all of this for people. Read Neil Strauss' "The Game" for some chilling truths, and then bring yourself back to 2020 and look at what is happening today. It isn't much different.

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by michaelmrose on Friday June 12, 2020 @05:43PM (#23504227)
The author of the game calls it

"a book about scared men who were afraid of women."

He also says he himself at the time of writing suffered from mental illness.

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/oct/10/neil-st...

Re:Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century,... by harambae on Thursday June 18, 2020 @10:17PM (#23570354)
That's just so he can sell his new book which is the other side of the coin [0]. It doesn't mean he actually wrote anything inaccurate.

[0] https://www.amazon.com/Truth-Love-Commitment-Puzzle-Male-ebo...