Facebook executives shut down efforts to make the site less divisive

Re:Facebook executives shut down efforts to make the site le... by Hokusai on Tuesday May 26, 2020 @01:53PM (#23314262)

> I haven't seen any evidence that someone specifically predicted the chain of events which would unfold on those flights, and clearly communicated the issue, then had executive(s) respond that it was 'worth the money'.

People understand the consequences of what they say. I doubt that most people will say that statements out loud, even when they know that are true.

But, people knew and money was involved.

* February 2018

“I don’t know how to refer to the very very few of us on the program who are interested only in truth…”

“Would you put your family on a MAX simulator trained aircraft? I wouldn’t.”

“No.”

* August 2015

“I just Jedi mind tricked this fools. I should be given $1000 every time I take one of these calls. I save this company a sick amount of $$$$.”

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Re:Facebook executives shut down efforts to make the site le... by nickff on Tuesday May 26, 2020 @01:58PM (#23314331)

I have read similar quotes about most modern aircraft development programs, yet aviation is quite safe. The fact you can find a few alarmists in a company of 160,000 is rather unsurprising.

Those quotes would be much more convincing if those employees put every prediction they ever made on the record, not just the ones that turned out to be sort-of right in hindsight.

From manager's perspective, you can't listen to everyone complaining about being rushed, understaffed, and underfunded (, because everyone looking to cover their butts in a bureaucracy does all three). On the other hand, you have to be on the lookout for credible issues.

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Re:Facebook executives shut down efforts to make the site le... by whatever1 on Tuesday May 26, 2020 @02:11PM (#23314489)

You cannot have it both ways. First you claim that no one spoke up and then you dismiss the ones who did as alarmists

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Re:Facebook executives shut down efforts to make the site le... by nickff on Tuesday May 26, 2020 @02:24PM (#23314662)

If someone does not make specific and testable predictions which turn out to be right, they are useless alarmists. If you want to read about how to assess predictors (and improve predictions), I suggest you read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_...

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Re:Facebook executives shut down efforts to make the site le... by anigbrowl on Tuesday May 26, 2020 @05:46PM (#23316812)

I'm a very good forecaster, and skill in this area doesn't stem from reflexive dismissal or ability to deploy fallacious counter-arguments.

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Re:Facebook executives shut down efforts to make the site le... by nickff on Tuesday May 26, 2020 @06:11PM (#23317029)

Would you please point out the fallacy?

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Re:Facebook executives shut down efforts to make the site le... by anigbrowl on Tuesday May 26, 2020 @10:06PM (#23318663)

Bifurcation

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Re:Facebook executives shut down efforts to make the site le... by nickff on Tuesday May 26, 2020 @10:44PM (#23318869)

I did not present a false choice between two options, I only defined what an alarmist is. I regard alarmists as an extreme on the spectrum of forecasters.

Bifurcating would have been saying that everyone is either a superforecaster or an alarmist, and I never said that.

You may not agree with me, but that doesn't mean that I fell into a logical fallacy.

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Re:Facebook executives shut down efforts to make the site le... by anigbrowl on Wednesday May 27, 2020 @02:18PM (#23327498)

If someone does not make specific and testable predictions which turn out to be right, they are useless alarmists.

This conversation doesn't seem like it's going to go anywhere productive.

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