The "current stack" may certainly be ripe for disruption. But I'd predict that rather than put developers out of work, it will simply bring even more businesses into the fold who may not have had the resources for developing their own solutions beforehand. There will always be companies with the resources to demand custom solutions to fit their particular business needs.
When we look at various platforms, we see that big business and startups are extracting all of the repeatable, low-risk tasks of most businesses(supply chain, customer service(bots), manufacturing(on demand), design(partially automated design services) etc), leaving businesses to do mostly marketing and betting on products/services, and getting less of the rewards.
So what we end up seeing, is either less small businesses(i think kaufmann institute showed stats about that), or tiny companies with almost everything outsourced - and tiny companies usually require little custom internal software(they often use their supplier IT system).
Of course if there were some breakthrough on the supply side and we could automate the software dev process itself, which I guess is what the article is saying, that would change everything. But that's beyond a silver bullet, that's a silver spaceship. So I doubt that too, and the GP's right to point out that every generation has had its version of this prediction also.
You don't always. But if you can identify software deficiencies and fix them, that is an advantage. You don't even have to be a "startup". I work for a company that has opened a wide variety of "lifestyle" businesses with the angle of "we can build simple software targeted towards our problem that makes us run more efficiently than the competitors". And it has worked pretty well, at least for the past 20 years or so.
But you need to include tech in the high level decision making process. Which means you need at least one person competent in both business and technology so that you can properly weigh business needs vs technical difficulty.
A no-code site that meets spec and transfers liability would be great.
Stripe does this for PCI. You sign up, use their toolkit, and then PCI is just handled for you. There are some no-code solutions using Stripe as the backend. That is not be a legal transfer of liability, but it's a level of exposure that the lawyers are comfortable with.
Also importantly; HIPAA is not PCI and not all regulations are created equal. Clicking a few buttons to setup a website, and then clicking a few more, in order to accept money and take credit cards is a far cry from setting up the IT infrastructure for an entire hospital.
Which is why I doubt no-code solutions will prosper since needs and regulations vary so much that they'll be either so many different solutions or monsters to configure.
This has been happening for decades now. Even in 2000 you could pay a hosting company $not-much to give you a basic templated site hooked into a payment server. It didn't work all that well, but it worked well enough to provide the commodity service most small business owners wanted.
I still see people saying "You can't automate this" - when magic AI automation isn't even needed to do the job and the job is already being done.
Of course this kind of no-code won't build you a complete startup. But how often do you really need a complete bespoke startup? For a lot of business ideas a no-code service with some simple customisation and a very basic content engine is all that's needed.
You do not need docker etc for any of this. Or at least, you don't need to deal with docker personally for any of this - just as you don't need to deal with your web host's VM technology.
So while I don't completely agree with OP, I think it's astoundingly naive to believe that the current level of hyper-complexity cannot possibly be shaken out.
In fact current stack traditions are almost comically vulnerably to disruption - maybe not this year, but I would be amazed if the landscape hasn't started to change within ten years.