Except that people who survive severe illness with Covid-19 often seem to suffer severe organ damage as a result. Mortality among Covid survivors is therefore likely to be higher than normal in the coming years, so it’s unclear how the numbers will pan out.

If it is killing people a couple of years earlier than they otherwise would have died, it is fair to consider them excess deaths.

Are you counting more than one death per person?

I will take that bet! I'd say that "drastically" means 20% or more. How much would you like to wager?

> I'm betting that in the next few years the death rate will drastically fall because the only people left will be really healthy.

If everybody died this year, then next year's death rate will be zero! That's not a good thing.

If you are old or infirm when you contract a bad case of corona, you die.

If you are relatively young and completely healthy, you spend a month in the hospital; get onto a ventilator for weeks requiring heavy sedation; lose your ability to walk, talk, feed yourself and brush your teeth; have to relearn how to swallow; maybe suffer a collapsed lung and upon release if you're lucky are confined to a wheelchair and physical therapy unable to take care of yourself, your loved ones, and return to your job.

Death is not the only negative outcome of this disease. "Recovery" from corona is sometimes the beginning of a long and slow struggle. I'm looking forward to any analysis on the economic cost of this.

The number of young people that are healthy (no pre-existing conditions like being overweight, diabetes or high blood pressure) that that experience what you describe is extremely rare.

> no pre-existing conditions like being overweight, diabetes or high blood pressure

Well over half the country ticks one of those boxes.

70% of Americans are either obese or overweight.

The coronavirus is going to with us for a long time; we're unlikely to get a miracle cure or effective vaccine anytime soon. On average American adults are about 27lbs (12kg) above their healthy weight. That means if they start losing weight now at a safe, sustainable rate then most people can be down to a healthy weight in a year or so.

Obviously there is a huge amount of individual variation but most people can take steps to improve their individual odds of survival.

If you are relatively young and completely healthy ... you overwhelmingly recover completely fine.